NCAA Football 2025

That is definitely the most devastating moment of my Michigan fandom. I was 16 at the time. I was fired up all summer for that team--Michigan 1994--because the roster was loaded. This was a legit national title contender but in those days if you lost one game your season was pretty much over and it was all about next year. In this case tho it was already known that next year, 1995, was gonna be a rebuilding/transition year given all the talent/veteran leadership we were losing to graduation. So after that Hail Marry, you knew--on an almost visceral level--it was gonna be a loooong wait til 1996. So depressing.

To have everything shattered on one ridiculous, miraculous play...it ripped the heart out of the entire team. Michigan's final record that year is no indication at all of how good they really were. They were better than Colorado and they fought Penn State--the best team in college football that year and one of the greatest teams I have ever seen--deep into the 4th. Michigan was as good as anyone that year, but none of that mattered becuz of one stupid play. I'll never forget the pain of that moment. Even watching it live it felt like everything was in slow motion. After the game, me and my best friend walked like zombies to the 7-11. We each bought a large cherry slurpy, sat on the side of the 7-11 building and tried in vain to drink the pain away. It was my first introduction to existential angst.

Record 11-11. Superlocks: 2-2

Here's the LOCKS of the week:

FSU -6.5 (-115)
USC -6.5 (-112)
Wash + 10.5 (-146)
LSU ml (+100)
Penn St -2.5 (-145)
Georgia -2.5 (-132)

$20 to win $688.20

The superlock of the week is Penn State. At Penn State, whiteout at night, is literally the toughest sports environment on this planet. The only thing scarier than that is actual lions on the field. Donte Moore has never faced anything like this and there really is no way to prepare for it. On top of that massive problem is the fact that Oregon doesn't really have a run defense. They let Northwestern run all over them. Northwestern people. At this point in the season I think it's clear that Michigan has the best RB room in college football, but Penn State is 2nd. Penn State is going to pound the **** out of Oregon and there's nothing they will able to do about it. Penn State should win this game by double digits.

Feels like the line on Indiana to playoff will be a good bet if they win

Funny thing about Manziel is he didn’t even particularly like football that much, other than in the sandlot sense.

A 10-2 Indiana team that won @Iowa and made ILL look at the rabbits feels like they're comfortably in, unless they get the Illinois treatment @ORE or @PSU (which isn't totally impossible).

Obviously 11-1 with a win at either of those is a mortal lock.

i believe windiana beats at least one of @uo or @psu
you heard it here first

Got Indiana to playoff +160. Feel like that's printing.

I managed to get $30k (payoff, not risk) on Kalshi on Indiana to playoff at an average price of 22% after they whomped Illinois.

I'm projecting 80% in at 10-2 (which I think is low, tbh) and 0% at 9-3, which adds to 59%

by far the biggest delta between my models and the books (which have them at like 36%), which is insane since since my rating for Indiana (and all their opponents) gets the same line for the Illinois game, the same o/u win total. So it's not like I am overrating them. I just think somebody is hand-waving the playoff lines.

I think the B1G middle class playoff odds are massively underrated

Books have USC at 29% I have them at 47%
Books have Washington at 16% I have them at 24%

I even have Oregon and Penn State at slightly higher odds

Meanwhile, the books are projecting 4.4 teams from the SEC to get in which I just think is way, way too high.

If you assume all 10-2s are in, and all 9-3s are out, you get 3.25 teams.

Then for odds to be in at 9-3 I gave:

Alabama 50% (a lot of which comes from the fact that they have a noncon loss so 9-3 means 2 SEC losses which is a decent chance of playing the SECCG. They must win that though, no way a 9-4 team is getting in)
USCe 50%
Mississippi State 50%
Kentucky 40%
Texas 40% (see: Alabama)
UF 40% (same as UT/Bama, 9-3 would only be ONE sec loss for them)
OU 35% (might be low. But would need to be at large)
Ark 35%
UGA 30%
LSU, Auburn and ATM 10%
Mizzou and Vandy 5%
Tennessee and Ole Miss 0%

Even with all that, I still only get 3.8 bids for the SEC

I am short every SEC team except for Ole Miss, who I am long

Other obvious longs are Miami at 72% and FSU at 27%

Also short ND at 29%

Quick Trivia:

What college football team has the longest winning streak including bowl games and playoffs?

ASU roughly 21% / 6% to playoff with a win/loss (Big-12 is hardest conference to model right now bc the odds of a multi way tie at 2 conf losses is pretty high)
TCU at roughly 35% / 12%

Huge swing for FSU tonight. I already have them at 47% to playoff. That jumps to 58% with a win and drops to 23% with a loss, given their current rating. But their rating is very uncertain since they went 2-10 last year, then beat Alabama then smoked to awful teams.

It's totally plausible that FSU is the best team in the country - they outgained Alabama by 1.4 ypp and beat them 31-14

They then played 2 cupcakes and beat them 143-13, outgaining them by 6 yards per play, and the games weren't even as close as the scores indicate.

It's totally plausible that FSU is a mediocre team who had 1 big aberration against Bama in a high vol spot - they were 2-10 last year, had one lucky game, then bully for you, you beat up on some cupcakes.

So, I think those numbers above are actually underselling it. If FSU dominates tonight and boosts their rating by 4 points in addition to getting the win, their playoff odds surge to 76%

If FSU loses tonight and their rating drops by 4 points, their playoff odds crater to 10%

My first guess was Navy

shoulda gotten it, they beat my mountaineers in the bowl game :(

Just curious, what does your model say about Michigan's playoff chances. My model has them at 100%.

TCU is free money right

Fsu meltdown in progress?

FSU is back!

Somebody forgot to tell their defense.

"He'll get impatient with easy short completions and do something stupid" seems like a sound strategy until you whiff on a pick 6 attempt.

Fsu and wide right. Think I’ve heard that before one time

Wow

can't overrule that

No. If FSU had played the clock better, there’d be almost no time left.

Also, probably should have gone for 2.

both games really delivering so far

what an absolute gem of a drive by castellanos