2025 NFL Season Thread: Can Uncle Rico save the Broncos or will they be Nixed?

Welcome to the island! Every time they throw out that 4thQ/2 minute comeback **** my first thought is they wouldn't have to come back if they weren't trailing in the first place.

Last week someone ITT said DET -10 was a steal against Cincy. I bet 3x my normal unit on DET -10 and now I forgot who said it, but whoever it was thank you.

Now I am following you on BAL no playoffs for one of my biggest bets ever - I got it at -140 though. Letsss GO!

That just completely ignores the entire complexion of the game lol. There's a reason that results in one score games is one of the more analyzed stats, especially when it comes to evaluating good coaches and good QBs.

Certain coaches and QBs can perform in the endgame at a much better rate than others. The strategy of the endgame is going to be much different than the strategy with 8 minutes to go in the 1st quarter.

Of course, points are always points, but defense, special teams, etc. also play a big factor in the score, game environment, and game script.

I'm not arguing it's the end all be all, but I think it carries more weight than you do. I also couldn't care less what the media thinks or says. My opinion is not affected by that dribble.

There does seem to be some correlation between great QBs and 4QC.

Yeah I mean it's both, obviously. Like the best thing is clearly to have a QB and team that are so good that you rarely face those late 4Q trailing situations, but at the same time you know they're gonna come up sometimes, so you want a QB that can perform under that kind of pressure.

I will say it's annoying when you see a QB who "rises to the occasion" and plays better in those spots than earlier in the game, because that's definitely a bug not a feature, you want him playing at that same high level all the time. Now this isn't to be confused with situations where a shitty coach intentionally holds his QB back by doggedly trying to 'stablish for 3.5 quarters and then only lets his guy start slinging the ball when he absolutely has to (I feel like we saw this more with older-school star QBs like Elway).

I thought the same. New coach bump, hungry dog runs the fastest. I'm not touching the Pats on the road as a 7 point fav in Survivor.

Great teams win close games. Great QB's help great teams to win the close games. All of these QB's also won many non close games.

That feels more like Survivorship Bias than anything.

Good QBs win a lot of games and get to have long careers. Over time, they'll inevitably win some close games as well. The longer they play, the more close games they'll lose. Id be curious to see how many 1 score games those same QBs have lost.

I think a lot of coaches play not to lose until the time comes where they have no choice but to try to win. This is how the Broncos used to play it especially under Dan Reeves. They had the great defense to be able to play this way. I always knew though that if Elway had the ball with 2 minutes left in the game the broncos were gonna win. There are certain QB's you simply can't give the ball back to late in the game. Many of these guy's are on the list Newguy presented. Ultimately, great QB's win games whether they are close or not. A QB who has had many 4th quarter comebacks has shown that he has the ability to execute at the most important time of the game. Some teams play a prevent defense which often allows this comeback to happen. Not all QB's have the capability to take advantage of what the defense is giving them. Also, even great QB's often have a quarter or two where either they don't play their best or other situations prevented them from scoring.

Even bad QB's will "inevitably" win some close games. I bet from a percentage standpoint the all time greats crushed other QB's in comeback percentage. Trust your eyes on this. If you give the ball back to Mahomes in the final seconds of the game you're probably gonna lose. Same with Elway and Brady etc. If you give the ball back to Lawrence, Tua, Mac Jones or Purdy you aren't nearly as concerned.

Definitely don’t give the ball back to Bryce Young.

If you give the ball back to Bryce Young and he has a chance to win it you deserve to lose.

This is not your normal David Tepper Panthers. After this week, we'll have a winning record.

Jags coach talking about getting Hunter—who has as many receptions as Skattebo—more involved in the passing game.

Sure, but the all time great QBs also crushed the bad QBs in normal winning% too, that's the point.

I'm sure it's not exactly linear, and there are other factors too (Good QBs often played on good teams at least a good portion of their careers, etc.), but just being a great QB means you're in line to both win more games and win more close games over your career.

It's weird how week after week we hear coaches say they need to get a player more involved. This team moved up to get Hunter with the intention of his high involvement in this offense. It's obvious he hasn't earned the targets. Only when that happens he will be more involved. Also, he needs to line up onside.

I agree that there is an obvious correlation going on here regarding total comeback wins. There is a lot that played a part in these wins. In my opinion the biggest reason for these wins is attributed to the elite ability of these QB's. These guys are clearly better equipped to overcome mistakes or poor play earlier in the game.

Yes, but it needs to be a % to show a clear correlation. Otherwise it’s really a Total Games/Total Wins stat.

Brady and Manning etc played the most games and had the most wins so it’s also likely they had the most comeback wins

I guess he wasn’t primed for the NFL when he was drafted.

Makes Unitas stand out more imo.

And obviously Montana wasn’t behind often in the 4th Q.

seems like a mostly pointless stat. i'd rather just have a guy who wins by 20 a lot

was gonna say that list at least says something interesting about unitas, but i didn't realize he played for like 17 years, so i guess not actually

I was shocked when the Bears took Loveland over Warren. I think Loveland will be good but it was obvious Warren was special.

All these guy's could win by 20 a lot as well as orchestrate a 4th quarter comeback.

Think he's said this three weeks in a row