Ongoing VP TR, PART 2!

Yes please do, any craps strategy would be really fun! I press like a madman on bubble craps but that’s just because I don’t know any better haha.

Of course we do!!!

OK, I'll start this by saying there is no system that can beat the game in the long run. Just in case anyone thinks I'm under the illusion I can beat the game. Next, every session is going be a balance between risk/reward. Bet what you're comfortable with, and recognize the more conservative you are the better you'll do when the table sucks (often) but the less you'll win when it's hot/fun.

Teaching-wise it's not that hard- the table is a mirror image of itself, so the L side bets are the same as the R. So you can ignore half the table. All the middle bets, hardways all tall small etc are sucker bets so you can just ignore those as well (or go for it, but recognize you're losing 4-10x more with those bets). So now we're left with the pass line, don't, and 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10.

Don't is infinitesimally less bad than pass line, is "playing with the casino" and you'll never have fun with everyone else (meaning, you lose when they win and vice versa) so I would just ignore don't.

Everyone says pass line/max odds is the way to play but that's actually only true when you can take a certain amount of odds and you proportionally need a much bigger bankroll. Here's an example-

6 or 8 with 5x odds- you bet 10$ on the pass line and take 50$ odds behind. Total bet = 60$. If 6 or 8 hits, you win 10 x 1 + 50 x6/5 = 70$. If you placed the 6 for 60$, you win 60 x7/6 = 60$. It's literally the same. Yes I know you're a favorite on the come out roll with a pass line bet, but depending on the number that hits you may revert to a bigger dog than if you just placed or bought the number. Eg second example-

4 or 10 with 3x odds- 10$ pass line, 30$ odds behind. You win 10 x 1 + 30 x 2 = 70$. If you instead buy 4 or 10 (pays true odds with small commission) for 40$, you win 40 x 2 = 80, minus 2$ commission = 78$. Here, pass line is way worse.

Final example which comes up on bubble craps a lot- 2x odds. 6 or 8 with 10$ pass line bet = 10$ + 20$ odds. If it hits, 10 x 1 + 20 x 6/5 = 34$. 30$ place bet on 6 or 8 pays 35$. You do BETTER placing 6 or 8 vs taking 2x odds.

So, all of this is to say- unless you want to shoot dice I wouldn't even take a pass line bet! This is the final and main reason why- it's really hard to press numbers with pass line/come bets. You'll typically miss numbers you would otherwise have hit with place or buy bets, and increasing your line bet (so you can increase your odds) typically involves doubling your outlay and leaving most/all of your money on the table. Meaning, you're going to get wiped out unless you really can see a string of repeats. Example-

You bet the pass line and the number is 6. Then you make a come bet and the number is 8. You're now on 6 and 8. 8 hits again- you've hit one number. Meanwhile, anyone placing the 8 has already hit twice. You hit 8 again with another come bet- you're back on 8. Any placing has hit 8 three times already, but you've effectively only hit it once.

Example 2- you bet 5$ pass line with 25$ odds. It hits. You want to press, so you bet 10$ pass line and now take 50$ odds. You have doubled your outlay and there's no smaller way to do it (other than taking less odds which mathematically hurts you). Meanwhile, someone placing 30$ could literally press to 35 or 36$ dollars if they wanted to- small increase, they get to keep most of their profit, etc.

Whew! Sorry for the long post, but hopefully I've made a few things clear-
- ignore middle of table bets
- play the "right" way simply bc it's more likely to generate fun and you're not "that" person winning when everyone else is losing
- place or buy numbers instead of passline/come bets unless you can really take big odds (10x or more, that's rare)

Next installment- the "way" I've found.

There's basically 3 ways, IMO, to cover enough numbers to have a real chance at fun, not feel left out when different numbers are hitting, and not get felted right away. Let's start with the statement 4/10 and 5/9 should always be bought if possible (buy 5/9 is rare but MGM properties have it. Pay vig after you hit vs before is always preferable, obv). So, the three ways are-

Even numbers (typically my go to)- buy 4/10, place 6/8.
Across- buy 4/10, place 5/9 and 6/8 (meaning, you have all the numbers)
Inside- place 5/9, 6/8.

I will use 25$ bets as an example. Even and inside is 25 + 30 + 30 + 25 = 110$ outlay. Across is 25+25+30+30+25+25 = 160 outlay.

Of these, even numbers is the smallest outlay coupled with least neg expectation (place 5/9 is worse), which is why I do this most commonly. Across is the biggest outlay and the most chance of getting screwed, but you'll never "miss" a number. Inside is most likely to generate numbers bc 4/10 are more rare, but you give up a little in expectation. So you can choose whatever unit size you're comfortable with and that will determine your outlay. Eg-

10$ base bets- even or inside is 44$. Across is 64$. 15$ base bets- even or inside is 66$. Across is 96$. I've seen 15$ min tables at Wynn before. It happens. The other thing to think about is the vast majority of craps rolls you'll hit a few things, so it's not like you're losing your entire outlay each time. If I were doing 25$ base bets, I'd buy in for 2k, take 220$ even numbers, expect to have ~ 10 shooters at minimum and enough firepower to last AT LEAST an hour or more. IMO that is really not that bad. You could even cut the buy in in half and unless the table is really cold still expect to have some shots at a winner and get some play. The game SEEMS expensive (and if it's cold, it can be), but overall you can expect a LOT of play for your money. Take it from someone with 2 decades experience- IN GENERAL, if you stick to good bets, you can expect a buy in that covers 5 shooter to last 30min- 1hr, 10 shooters to last 1-2hrs, etc.

Next up- pressing.

IMO pressing is the ONLY way to potentially have fun and make a huge score at craps. Press doesn't have to mean leave all your money out there, and there's lots of different ways to do it. Here are a few common strategies-

- get roll paid for first, then go for it. Straightforward. Here's what that might look like- you bet inside 25$ units, 110$ outlay. You hit a 6 (pays 35), 8 (pays 35) and a 9 (pays 35). You have collected 105 and essentially covered your outlay. Now, a 6 hits again- you press to 60$ and collect 5$. If 6 hits again, you're collecting 70$.

- Press first, then collect. People who do this generally are very comfortable losing their entire initial outlay over and over looking for a score. Eg I might do this with 10$ base bets. If I bet 64$ across (10$ on every number, 12$ on 6 and 8), if I hit anything I literally don't care about another 14$. I'll press it all and try and go on a run. Eg- 6 hits (pays 14), I'm going from 12$ to 24$. 6 hits again, (24 pays 28), I'm going from 24 to 48$ now. I've collected a whole 6$ on a 12$ bet, but now I've got a 48$ bet out there (4x my original).

- press in increments- totally acceptable and can get big too. Eg, 30$ 6 goes to 36$, 42$, 60$, 90$, 120$ etc. You always pick up some profit, the number always gets bigger. Whatever you're comfortable with.

My number 1 recommendation for people starting off would be- EVEN numbers (best EV), with roll paid for then press strategy. Depending on the sequence, you could even have the roll paid for with two hits! Example-

You bet even numbers 25$ units, 110$ outlay. 25$ 4/10, 30$ 6/8. 4 hits- pays 50$ minus 1$ vig. 4 hits again- same thing. You have collected 98$ and have the roll essentially paid for.

From here on out I would press and take. 6/8 would go to 60$, then the next I'd collect. 60$ goes to 120, collect the next. 240/480/900 etc. As you can see, it can get big FAST and you're collecting along the way so even a decent roll you should be picking up multiples of your original bet. 4/10 are a little trickier simply bc they pay so much and are more rare. People can decide for themselves what they want to do, it depends on how much variance you can tolerate. Here's one practical example-

25$ goes to 50 (collect 25$). 50 goes to 100 (collect 50). 100 goes to 200 (collect 100). Etc. On 4/10 if you double your bet you'll always collect at least the bet itself (since 4/10 pay 2:1). Or, you could REALLY go for it-

25$ hits, press it all and go to 75$. 75 hits, collect 150$. Next hit, press it ALL again (you're now at 225$). 225 hits, pays 450!

In summary- you have to increase your bets, even just a little. Live a little 😉 The amount you press and how often you collect is a function of how conservative you want to be. In general, I'd try to get your roll paid for first so you can really swing for the fences when you press since you're playing with "house money" (yes I know it's all your money but play dice long enough and you'll see that 100$ you pull out of your pocket and 100$ the house gives you might as well be two completely different things).

Thank you!

This is the most important part of this post. There are many different strategies for betting in craps but good lord the number of times someone goes on a crazy roll and I have won 2-3k from $15 units and the guy next to me who never pressed wins $200 and asks how did you win so much more than me? The answer is always, you didn't press any of your bets or you simply went from $15 to $25 bets and that's it. Sometimes they say well when the shooter 7'd out I had $100 out there, my response often is, yeah I had $500 plus out there. Stakes all relative here, I'm sure leon has had thousands on the table when a roll ends many times.

There are many ways to press but make sure you are pressing during those winning roles.

Another fun thing is if a roll gets going do a full press at some point so that your bets get big just in case its gets super hot, by not collecting a $50-$60 payout 1 time can massively increase the win.

leon mentioned similar but if you have a $30 6, press to 42, then 60, if it hits again take a shot and go to 120, then press in $24 increments for example. Every hit at that point you will be dragging in well over $100 each hit and still pressing a good amount etc...

Edited to add, if betting 4 numbers, especially if table minimums are higher than you would like, feels like a lot, start with 2 numbers and instead of pressing, add numbers then press. i.e. start with 6/8, collect on 1 hit, next hit add the 5 or 9, collect next hit, then add the 5 or 9. However 4 numbers is more fun. Instead of betting $30 6 & 8 at a casino with a $25 min, i would rather go to a different casino and bet inside for that same $60 on a $15 table.

This. It's funny when they ask how you won so much, but then counter that they lost a lot less on the 7 out. All true. So what you're asking for is, how do I always win tons but only ever lose a little? Good luck with that.

I think my "record" for money on the table is almost 10k. I know I did that on a recent trip with D. 3500$ 9 I believe, I had at least yellow on several other numbers and my smallest bet was probably 500. If we figure 500+500+1200+1800+3500+1000 that's 8500 right there. Needed 10-20 min more of that roll!

I should also add to my posts, for max fun/min pain, once you find a system you like I'd stick with it unless you REALLY REALLY have a good reason to switch. Guaranteed if you switch you will remember all the times "X should have happened but for Y" and you'll just want to kick yourself in the nuts. It's a losing game no matter what- the goal is to minimize tilt and pain opportunities.

A simple strategy I’ve liked when playing craps is placing 6&8 with a partial press on both numbers every time you hit so that you double the bet sizing every 3 hits.

So if you start with $30 & $30 on each. The first time you hit either number, press both to $36, then $42, then $60, $72, $84, $120, $144, $168, $240, $288, $336, $480, etc

Such timely craps strat for me (4 more days!)... thanks Leon and others who added their thoughts!

Leon, you don’t play any crapless? It feels more volatile and more degen to me but then again I know next to nothing about craps

That is me. Clueless but had some monster rolls, all before age 25. So not only was I ignorant, I had almost no money. My best roll was about 25 minutes, followed by a couple quick 7-outs, followed by another guy that rolled for 15 minutes, probably 2 point decisions total, and a ton of numbers in between. Then I got the dice back and rolled for another 20 minutes. That hour would've been a savvy player's wet dream. It should've been a casino's nightmare.

It was at the Sands, and when I walked up to the table there were only a few players on it. Shortly thereafter a tour bus dropped off a group of senior citizens on a junket of some kind. Literally all wearing name tags. It was a $2 minimum table, and the action was crazy when we got going, mostly with $1 and $5 chips. It was hilarious. We had 2 boxmen and 4 dealers, and a handful of people behind them watching. When it was over and they colored me up, I'd won $285. The pit bosses breathed a sigh of relief and one of the boxmen said "You should've won a hundred grand". Doh, I didn't know any better.

I have. Back in the day I played a ton of crapless at stratosphere, when a 5k trip bankroll for me was a dream. It is more volatile but you can really make some big scores there too. I remember when my wife and I used to only bet 2 and 12, 25$ each. We'd sit there for hours basically breaking even. I still remember a roll where we went from 25, to 50, to 100, to 200, to 300 on both and hit one of them. That's 5 hits. They had to break out the purple chips at stratosphere and we thought we were gods lol.

I stay away from the game right now bc it costs too much to cover all the numbers, and if you don't cover numbers in that game you're always going to be in a possible regretful situation. At the Wynn the game is often 100$ min so that's over 1k to cover all the numbers!

I love when pit bosses say stuff like that. If you guys only had 20 min rolls piecemeal, zero chance you win 6 figures. 1 hr unbroken MAYBE. I've experienced maybe 10 rolls in my life over 1/2 hr (I mean true 1/2 hr, not that BS where the table slows to a crawl and you really only see 5-6 rolls) since I've been playing at my current level. Each time I win low 5 figures. Since the game builds exponentially, if I get to that stage and you give me 10-15 more min I'll be mid 5 figures. 10-15 min more on top of that, now we've broken 6 digit territory. You didn't miss much.

I've always been a pass line / come / max odds bettor, but as a low roller, it's gotten way too expensive now that most tables are $25 minimum in vegas. You're looking at $150 on the pass line w/ max odds, and the same on your come bet. So it's really $300 to play a $25 table. Pretty steep.

I'm going to take these posts as inspiration to not sweat the minimal difference in math and just play numbers. I can play less (since it's then truly a $25 minimum), or get more numbers quickly. Even though placing is worse, it's still not as bad as the VP we're playing these days!

I'm similar. Ideally I want the best percentages, and that's pass/come with odds. (Let's bypass the point that don't are slightly better. The fun EV is drastically low for me)

So my strategy has been do place bets, and numbers are hitting, increase the bets up a unit or two each, and then start betting come bets which convert them to come/odds. If the roll continues to be hot, increase the come bet to get more on odds. This naturally presses the numbers that are hot.

Getting paid "only" $140 on a $100 place 5 annoys me as I know the math.

Btw, the borgata in NJ, at least the last time I was there which has been some time, let's you buy the 5/9 and 4/10, without preparing. So you can buy the 5 for $30. You get paid the true odds of $45, less the 5% vig of $1. $44 is better than $42. Not huge but obviously you can see it scales. So go to borgata if you can. Don't know any other places that do this.

MGM properties in Vegas have been this way for about a year as well. You sometimes have to ask/remind the crew. At Bellagio the last couple of times I played all the crew knew, to the point where you could just toss out a 50$ 5/9 and they knew it was bought, not placed, and they wouldn't even put the "buy" button on.

Might be time to use your ‘One Time!’?

Just saw Resorts World post this. Crazy!

Now that's a nice handpay! Happy Holidays to someone 😀

Did the player survive the heart attack?
😀

my next first tattoo

This is not as random as one might think. I have seen others hit the 20X (10X x 2) and also drew the Royal, albeit on a 25 cent and a $1 machine. I guess it has to ‘Max Pay’ at least once in awhile. Oddly, the only time I have ever seen a 20X is when the Royal is drawn..

Actually, I would argue this is the definition of random. The chance is simply a dealt royal x the chance of the dealt multiplier (1 in 15 if not mistaken). Once that happens, the game automatically creates a 20x multiplier bc of the rule the chance of the max payout can't be below 1 in 15 million or something like that. Meaning, the true odds of dealt royal x chance of dealt 10x x chance of deal 10x are so much lower than 1 in 15 million, if you "just" get the dealt royal and multiplier on the deal, they automatically bump it to 20x. So, yeah it happens more than mathematically it should, but still at 1/650k x 1/15 odds.

I think the chance of 10x x 10x is rare to begin with (.01 x .01 something like that). When you couple that with the fact one is so likely to be dealt something meaningless, I think that accounts for only seeing the times with the dealt royal. We've definitely seen most of the times the dealt royal with 20x has happened PRECISELY bc it's so noteworthy. Undoubtedly we haven't seen the majority of 20xs that have occurred, bc they likely came with garbage.