8♦7♦ Triple Barrel 200bb Deep – What’s the Best River Size on A♦? (CoinPoker $200 Special)
I’m playing the $200 Special on CoinPoker, early stage, ~200bb effective in a deep MTT structure.
Villain is a fairly loose BB defender with a 51.6% cold call BB stat.
Given the depth, I actually think my BTN open size could have been bigger (2.5–2.7x instead of 2.1x), and that’s something I’ll adjust going forward.
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Hand:
NLH – CoinPoker $200 Special – Early Stage (200bb deep)
HERO opens BTN with 8♦7♦, BB cold-calls (51% CC stat).
Flop – 6♦ K♠ J♦ – Pot 5.4bb
BB checks, Hero c-bets 1.8bb, BB calls.
Turn – 7♣ – Pot 9bb
BB checks, Hero barrels 75% (5.7bb), BB calls.
I think this turn is a mandatory barrel with pair + flush draw vs a very wide defend. Folds out better one-pair hands, denies equity from all the Qx/Tx gutters, and sets up a lot of good river runouts.
River – A♦ – Pot ~22.5bb
BB checks, Hero bets ~65% (13.3bb).
Villain folds.
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My thought process
Up to the river I think the line plays well:
Flop c-bet with our equity hand is standard.
Turn 7♣ improves us to pair + flush draw. This is a super natural barrel 200bb deep: fold equity + showdown improvement + clean river outs.
The A♦ river is where I got stuck.
We make the A-high flush, but:
Villain’s calling range on flop + turn is very diamond-heavy.
Better diamonds (K♦, Q♦, T♦, 9♦) are definitely in there.
Most Kx/Jx/7x without a diamond likely fold to a big triple barrel.
What do we realistically get called by that we beat?
Maybe:
AJ, AT♦x, A6
.
But it’s not a huge list, and many players overfold vs large sizing on 200bb rivers.
That’s why I’m unsure if the 65% pot bet is optimal.
Possible adjustments I considered
(1) Small sizing (35–45% pot):
Targets weaker flushes more effectively
Might get crying calls from Kx/Jx with a diamond blocker
Doesn’t isolate myself vs the top of his flush range
Easy fold vs a raise
(2) Overbet:
Makes my line look like a busted draw bomb
Could get looked up by K♦x/Q♦x
But feels too thin with A8♦ 200bb deep
Raises the chance I value-own myself vs the nut diamond region
My leaning:
Small sizing (~40% pot) seems cleaner and targets the exact part of villain’s range I beat.
Betting big forces him to fold too much of the hands I want value from and mostly continue with better flushes.
Still curious to hear what people think:
Is a smaller value bet best?
Is the overbet bluff-rep line actually stronger at this depth?
Do you prefer checking back sometimes with the A8♦ flush?
14 Replies
I kinda think almost all your bet sizes are too small playing this deep. The flop size is OK but I might size up here to try to fold out some of the hands that are ahead of us right away. Not necessary, though.
Most specifically, I don't think b75 on the turn ever folds out a better pair. I don't think you need to go crazy with like b200 with your actual hand, though. But if folding out a better pair is your goal, that is what you should do. You can check here, but mostly if you bet this turn you should overbet the pot, even if not b200.
What makes you think the villain's calling range to the river is so diamond-heavy? You have two and there are three more on the board. There are some hands that will be in there, but I don't see why it's "heavy" on what you block and not on what you unblock. Kx of diamonds, hands with combo draws like QdTd/Qd9d/Td9d/5d4d are in villain's range, but there's a lot more Kx or even Jx and some QT, maybe T9 with the turned double gutter. You should bet the river like your hand is as strong as it is. I'm betting at least pot on the river.
Because the flop favors your range I would bet about 67% pot like 3.6 bb's.
Because we improved on the turn I like a bet here and your size seemed decent. I think we get gutters to fold and possibly Jx and 6x hands. I also don't mind checking back here and calling a river bluff if we don't improve. Given the river we would bet and might get called.
I think what Nath is saying about river bet sizing is true. A pot sized bet is polarizing and could be called because you could have missed a straight/gutter draw though your turn bet sizing indicated a strong hand. My guess is that Villain had Kx and thought the A changed everything. So pot sized or bigger makes hero calls a thing.
i always thought cold call was when the person has no chip/s invested
hes the BB so its not a cold call.
On the river, everything go there. When bb checks to you, he had a made hand before the river and you should size down to induce a crying call or a check raise bluff. As played, if I was OP, I would consider throwing away KJ and AJ to your river bet. I am probably only calling with a straight or better depending on the possible diamonds in my hand.
Looks good till the river, though potting it on the turn probably makes it easier to play.
So I would actually bet small, potentially very small (like 25%).
* Considering the river is terrible for his one pair hands, I think it's the only chance to get called by them.
* I also think it opens up the possibility of attacking your bet with the Kd (a bluff which would never happen at a large sizing).
* I might be terrible but I'd even feel weird flatting here with QT...your small sizing screams 2 pair and I'd be tempted to put in a tiny raise here to get more value out of the nut straight, particularly if I have a blocker.
* If he does have a flush (I agree with Nath that's not particularly likely), we don't cost ourselves a tremendous amount. Even if we call a raise (and I think we should), it's probably less than if we bet big and lose the hand.
Here's my problem with betting large: we can't credibly represent a missed draw. Everything got there. There's what, T9? Q9? Just not enough combos for me to be tempted to hero if I'm him. It's not a great board for an hcall anyway, and the Ad makes it so much worse.
The part that makes me unsure is that if he does have QT, which is very likely as it's unblocked by both the board and our hand, we might miss value if we bet small and he flats. But I think it's worth it, seeing as we lose everything else we beat with the large bet.
Interesting hand.
I don’t think q10 checks river and kj never checks flop and turn.
On the river, everything go there. When bb checks to you, he had a made hand before the river and you should size down to induce a crying call or a check raise bluff.
Why would a made hand check-raise bluff?
You should be aiming to get max value with your strong hands. Getting 100% pot called 30% of the time is better than getting 25% pot called 100% of the time.
And at least in theory, the bigger you bet, if you're balanced, you'll have more bluffs in your range.
each chip of the next 75% is worth less than one of the first 25% (ICM)
in general, we have to consider the complete picture - what does call us, what does raise us, etc. - we don't have the nuts (and then too, of course).
Why would a made hand check-raise bluff?
You should be aiming to get max value with your strong hands. Getting 100% pot called 30% of the time is better than getting 25% pot called 100% of the time.
And at least in theory, the bigger you bet, if you're balanced, you'll have more bluffs in your range.
A two pair hand with the k of diamonds could check raise bluff river or a guy that simply bluffs because he thinks he can move you off your hand when the straight and flush both hit on river.
To me, Hero betting every street and sizing up river looks to me like he either hit his draw he was speculating with or hit Ax strong enough to believe he can move villain off his hand.
Why would a made hand check-raise bluff?
You should be aiming to get max value with your strong hands. Getting 100% pot called 30% of the time is better than getting 25% pot called 100% of the time.
And at least in theory, the bigger you bet, if you're balanced, you'll have more bluffs in your range.
This is indeed true. In many situations that also means the difference in terms of won BB:s between betting big and small for value in a specific situation isn't that big on average.
In this situation the Ace of spades unfortunately brings too many hands in Heros range that beat most of villains. I think many players that are aware of this (which we should expect in a $200 tourney, right?) will fold even some two pair hands. Aside from the few flushes that do beat us (and probably often would bet river themselves) maybe only QT, 77, 66, AJ and KJ But KJ I would expect to bet or CR turn.
KJ could definitely check/call the flop but probably check/raises the turn.
A two pair hand with the k of diamonds could check raise bluff river or a guy that simply bluffs because he thinks he can move you off your hand when the straight and flush both hit on river.
Two pair wouldn't really be a bluff, would it? It would be a value check-raise against a small bet. I don't know how much this opponent is thinking, but if you think they'd bluff against a small river bet, that's the best argument for making one.
Strategically speaking, we never really want to bet small on the river, and one reason is that our thinner value bets can get crushed with bluffs if we size down too often. And more generally, if we're confident enough we have the best hand, let's try to get the most we can with it.
That said, I want to move on to this...
To me, Hero betting every street and sizing up river looks to me like he either hit his draw he was speculating with or hit Ax strong enough to believe he can move villain off his hand.
In this situation the Ace of spades unfortunately brings too many hands in Heros range that beat most of villains. I think many players that are aware of this (which we should expect in a $200 tourney, right?) will fold even some two pair hands. Aside from the few flushes that do beat us (and probably often would bet river themselves) maybe only QT, 77, 66, AJ and KJ But KJ I w
This is a bigger concern, specifically because the ace is also an overcard (and for that matter completes QT). Kx probably makes up the majority of BB's range at this point, so the optimal size is probably the one that gets the most value on average from Kx.
The problem with just betting small on the river, though, is that if our opponent has Kx that'll still at least look like Ax-- you wouldn't value bet worse on this river (maybe if you're really feeling frosty you'd bet KQ, but that still beats all the other Kx). Unless you're trying to play an elaborate game to induce a check-raise bluff to move us off Ax, I think you're still better off just betting big and hoping villain finds your bluffs and calls. (You opened the button, so you could have T9 or 98, and you should probably take this same line with those.)
This is a great explanation, Nath. I did think that getting value was so hard that going for the tricky bet small-call line was optimal. However, in a $200 players are likely good enough to find 30 combos of T9o, T9s, 98s and 98o as bluffs.
Once we value bet river, I think it's interesting to contemplate bluffs for the opponent. For instance, if AK is in our range when we pot it here, should Villain ever run a massive check raise bluff? And should we call? Really interesting hand.
BTW, any opinions about whether CoinPoker is a good place to play?
I agree, nice post Nath. I would consider 67, j6, j7 to be bluffs, not value raises as played, but I really combined a non nutted 2 pair hand with a key card bluff when describing a scenario where a small bet may induce a check raise on river. Maybe just semantics....
