KK at sharp game

Bigger pre. At this flop spr we probably shouldn’t be folding overpairs, especially given the sizing tell. Punish his draws by jamming.

Grunch:

Regarding HH1 - not sure, but I suspect you may have folded the best hand. Seems like a spot where a strong player would size up with value on the river. Tough spot to barrel turn, but when we check back we have to be willing to call down more. If we think he's just always showing up with value when he bets the river, we should take this turn check-back line with 2P+, and work in some river raises when he bets small like this.

Regarding the reads - do we know what it means when V2 x/r's in a multi-way pot? I'm guessing we don't. Hard to reconcile an aggro x/r tendency with the loose-passive label. I'd think it's unusual to find a fishy rec who balances their flop x/r's with value and bluffs, but also has a somewhat obvious sizing tell.

PRE - raise bigger. At least $80, if not $90. Might even go $100.

FLOP - the x/r size seems silly-small given the action, so based on our read, I'm guessing we think V is on a draw. It's kind of a weird spot with the low SPR and V1 still in the hand.

I don't think clicking it back is likely to fold out very many hands, and a jam seems like it just folds worse and gets snapped off by better. Doesn't seem like there's a raise size in between a min-click and a jam that doesn't pot-commit us to calling the rest off.

I'm not just thinking about V2's x/r range possibly being draw-heavy. V1 opened from EP, got called by V2, then flatted our somewhat small 3B in a spot where he's incenctivized to 4B to get V2 out of there. Then he calls our c-bet next to act. If we have a read on V2, he probably does, too.

If we think V1 4B's a strong, linear range pre, say, JJ+/AK/AQs, then he could have some 99/88 here. He could be laying in the weeds, hoping for exactly this sort of action. I would think his only worse value is going to be TT, and maybe JJ if he doesn't 4B that pre.

I don't like it, but I think we may have to just flat call, and plan to fold if V1 back-raises huge, which I assume will just be a jam. If we flat call and he over-calls, and action checks to you on a turn brick, I think we should probably check back.

You're looking at just a smidge over 1 SPR heading to the turn if you and V1 both call. If action checks to us on a turn brick, even if we bet $300 into $900, I'd think we'd have to fold if V1 check-jams for $700 more, which would be really gross, when we'll be getting 3:1 pot odds.

Don't raise, Banana. Just call. See what V1 does. If he back-raises, fold. He's going to be nutted. If you jammed, I'm somewhat expecting that V1 called with 99/88 and V2 just folded, saying he was on a draw.

Can we check/back this flop 3-ways?

I'm never this deep but...

SPR is a quite awkward little over 5 and meanwhile we've given two opponents rather decent IO of ~25:1 to stack our ovepear. Not a great setup, imo. Overall, I really don't think we should be attempting to get in all the chips here. So I'd either check back the flop to get to showdown. Or if I'm betting I'd sigh bet/fold. In this case here V1 shouldn't really be getting too out-of-line with the fish trapped in the hand, he doesn't seem the the type to hurp durp with a worse overpair, and we block some of his overs + flush draw semibluffs.

ETA: Whoops, it's V2 who check/raised? Ug. I guess he could be overplaying worse / have looser semi-draws in his range. Does V1 just always have a worse overpear here or could he be slowplaying? Gross. Might have to go with it?

GcluelessNLnoobG

Easy fold.

The money in low stakes poker comes from donkeys who pay off by over-valuing their one pair hands.

Don't be one of those people.

In our first session with unknowns, I doubt very much we have enough of a sample size to reliable conclude a bet sizing tell within Villain's check/raising range.

I would caution responders in this thread against putting too much stock in that information.

Maybe he check/raised big with value and didn't get any action, so he changed. Maybe he had a read on another opponent etc. Too many variables.

In this hand, someone described as "loose-passive" just offered two aggressive players some "please call me" odds.

One pair is toast.

Even if it isn't, we're not exactly a massive favorite against his bluffs.

Against the flop C/R it's a pretty clear call. We only have to call $140 more. We have position and the Ks.

Call and see what V1 does. If he continues you're mostly done with the hand.

If V1 folds, you get to see what V2 does on the turn before committing any more money. You're deep enough that he likely slows down a lot with his bluffs. He's a fish. You should be able to make better decisions than him on future streets. Really call is the only play that makes sense.

We call the 225, V1 folds thankfully

Turn 760 - 9♠ 8♣ 3♠ 7♥

V2 barrels 300, he has 600 back...

Pretty nasty spot. JT got there. Flush draws missed. Sizing still looks more like he's trying to see a river without committing all of his chips.

I'm likely calling turn then folding if he jams river.

You're calling $300 to win $1360, which means you only need river to check through and you to be good a little over 22% of the time to break even on the turn call.

It's tempting to jam given your sizing tell, but I would have to be pretty confident in that sort of tell because you're mostly drawing dead if he has it.

So go to the river and play chicken, IMO.

In your alls experience, what percentage of people check/raise flops to slow down on non stoopid turns? If it's as small a percentage as in my experience, we really have to start making decisions as early as the flop check/raise, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

^All of this.

We might not be here if we raised larger pre.

Fair question.

In my observation, it's unusual to see a fish x/r flops like this one with both 2P/sets and draws. Most fish just x/r 2P+, then they tend to bomb it on brick turns and slow down when the turn brings in any obvious draw. They tend to play their draws more passively.

What they'll do with 2P/sets on a turn that brings in the OESD but not the FDFD is hard to predict. It seems like they either go into a check-call shell or they follow through and bomb it, I guess praying that their opponent didn't bink.

Here, we have a read that V will x/r 2P+ and draws, but has a sizing tell, such that his flop raise size is supposedly indicative of a draw, not 2P+. Now on the turn, when JT and 65ss come in, he's barreling less than 1/2 pot, which runs counter to the fish tendency to either check or bomb.

If we want to go down a rabbit-hole, we might suppose this is how he might play a straight, betting small to milk Banana for value. But if we're uncertain about the read, and he x/r'd with 2P+, then we might also suppose this is how he'd continue with 2P+ when the OESD comes in, betting small instead of checking or bombing.

Even without the read about V's sizing tell, if we just saw this in-game, I'd think the x/r to 225 is semi-FOS from a fishy player. Like, he double-flatted pre, so we should think he's at least a little fishy, if not super-fishy. Is he really going to use dink-and-dunk x/r sizing with 2P+, in a multi-way pot, on this insanely wet board?

I wouldn't be ready to fold on the flop, given the raise size and price we were getting. If he bombed the turn, then I'd probably fold, unless we think he's capable of over-bet jamming as a bluff. Most fish aren't.

As GWF said, it's tempting to jam now, if we're super-confident in the read and sizing tell. I think a jam would be the correct play if we're weighting his range towards draws that will call off the remaining $600 on the turn, but won't put it in if they brick on the river.

If he's somehow balanced here, with 2P+/sets, straights, and naked flush draws, then I'd think it's better to see what he does on the river. If he rips $600 into $1360, it's pretty gross, but I'd think we have to give him credit for having it.

Bigger pre. I might just raise his little drawing bet on the flop, especially with V1 trying to see a cheap turn. As played, what GWF wrote -- see a river.

Adding to my post above, we may want to choose an action just based on counting combos of value and bluffs and doing some maths.

Value: assuming he's not calling pre with off-suit combos, he has JTs (4), 65ss (1), 99 (3), 88 (3), 33 (3), 98s (2), 87ss (1) = 17 value combos.

Bluffs: assuming he has some standard 3B's pre, and we're ruling out AQss, he has A2ss-AJss (8), maybe QJss/QTss (2), 76ss (1) = 11 bluff combos.

We're either drawing dead or drawing to 2 outs against 14 of his 17 value combos I think we have 8 outs against his 2P combos.

All his bluffs would seem to have at least 11 outs to improve to a hand that beats ours.

So, we're either drawing dead or close to it against 60% of his range, or we're around a 3:1 favorite against 40% of his range. I'd think we'd need to be VERY sure about our read before we jam turn.

I can't imagine he's folding any of those hands for another $600, so even if he only has hands that are a 3:1 dog, we'll still lose this 1/4 of the time when he binks on the river.

I kinda wonder if his range here is just the non-nutted value and draws to the nuts, like 3 combos of 2P and 8 combos of AXss. In that scenario, there's an interesting question to ask about what we do if he checks on another spade.

If we think he's check-folding all his 2P and betting all his flushes on spade rivers, and we're willing to turn KK into a bluff, then we should flat turn, and be prepared to fold river if he bets a brick and jam river if he checks a spade.

Just fold the flop - you're prob flipping vs him and no foresight on a lot of turns/rivers you're basically guessing on. I also think given effective stack sizes he might be on the tighter part of the range

I don't expect him to necessarily check a lot on the turn (probably still does sometimes though), but I do think he'll usually give away information about the strength of his hand on the turn. If he jams turn I would generally give him credit for a real hand. Not that he can't have it when he bets $300, but I think it's less likely, and we're getting a better price.

Now if we see a river it can play out in several different ways. I'm usually folding if he jams. If he checks I'm usually checking back. However, if a spade hits and he checks I might turn my hand into a bluff and jam with the spade blocker. It depends if I think he's capable of folding something like a set to a river jam.

Finally someone gets it!

The rest of you are all massive whales.

Unreal

Result:

Nice hand. Thank goodness you didn't fold the flop. LOL.

Hey, to be fair, OP didn't mention anything about a "weird vibe".

With that new info, obviously shove. Throw your car keys and your watch in the middle too.

tl;dr Homegames are the solution to downswings 😉

As others said: Yeh, I'd def. raise more preflop and never fold, we get it in real bad if anyone has AA but that's life.

Flop maybe bet less? Like 20% of pot or even less? It's a super bad flop for our range.

After that, don't fold because it's a super bad flop for our range and Vs are going insane with draws to get us to fold better. Wp, gg.

Banana strikes again!!!

Nh, wp.

Long live Banana man!

NH Banana.

I want to personally thank everyone saying fold flop for being the main contributors to my winrate. 😜

Hey, what about my win rate? I like money too!