USA Goes to War Against Iran
Time for a dedicated thread to the war.
How long will it last and what will be the probable outcome?
Proven huh? By who you? The only sources I found saying it was likely intentional - meaning the US knew it was a school - were Iranain state media and Al Jazeera. You're actually more certain than Iran. The overwhelming consensus is that it was an Intel failure of sorts.
The attack is a disaster for several reasons:
1. The tragedy itself, which is horrible.
2. It likely made it exponentially harder for any potential resistance to the regime on the ground to coalesce, organize or recruit. Resistance to the regime in Iran is very far from uniform, and success would depend on coalitions. It is a bit harder to convince your peers that your country being bombed is a necessary evil and you need to set aside your differences when reels of 170+ small caskets are showing in the background.
3. It allowed the regime to paint their fight as protection of Iran as opposed to protection of themselves. Not everyone will buy that, but these things are about critical mass.
4. It made it a lot more difficult for the US to garner support internationally, support they now are trying to find. While plenty of countries and governments would be willing to ignore an event like this after they joined on operation, doing it in reverse order is a lot harder.
5. It showed weakness in intelligence used, casting doubt on intelligence used in the operation in general.
6. It in general puts the spotlight on civilian casualties instead of military targets, making it harder to show your successes.
With a defense secretary that on several occasions makes it clear he views rules of engagement as woke propaganda, a president who stands dumbfounded and addresses the issue with a mix of confusion and inane conspiracy theories, and no room for adults at the table (because it would make them look bad), the net result is predictable.
China gradually (or suddenly) increasing it's role is a decent bet. They are Iran's allies and the natural power to step up if/when the usa gets bored or missteps too much (or even, staggeringly stupid as this sounds, the usa invites them). Who knows what the other countries will then do but it's become a very low bar for china to be more attractive than the west.
We should clarify that we are talking about two different scenarios:
1. Policing the strait after a deal with Iran is reached. At that point it is about capability rather than capacity. A lot of the world's navies are not prepared for drone attacks even from smaller groups, and many are not well equipped even for regular operations.
There is also the issue of how trustworthy the involved parties are. Anyone operating naval forces in the strait would look impotent and foolish if another campaign was started.
2. Patrolling the strait before a deal with Iran is reached. This would essentially be partners in the ongoing war, with all its flaws, uncertainties and lack of competent and trustworthy leaders.
Here there is also an issue with how trustworthy the involved parties are. With Trump and his cronies essentially in charge, you'd be quickly thrown under the bus or blamed even for mistakes not of your own making.
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As for Chinese capacity specifically, they have limited blue water capacity, meaning their navy is not really built for remote operations and power projection. While they are slowly changing that, they are still not there yet. Thus, even some hypothetical contribution to a policing force would likely be minor. This is easier for many "western" nations, because even those that do not have blue water capacity can sail under NATO doctrine and logistics and be supported by those who do.
This in part for historical reasons; during the era of the Soviet Union their navy was focused on protecting their northern border, which meant it largely focused on brown water operations. It is in part due to China's strange organization of its armed forces, where they don't have independent branches. Everything is a subdivision of the people's army, which have historically prioritized land forces first. It is also partly political, as Chinese armed forces do not serve the state, they serve the party (this is not me making accusations, it is literally how they are organized and their official purpose). Their primary mission is to secure party interests, which can align with state interests, but are not necessarily the same. Loyalty at home and operations in close regions has been seen as more important than projecting power globally.
Yes it's a bit early for china but their difference is that they can probably patrol the straits with agreement from iran which would mean they then don't need to do very much. If they also station some personnel in iran then those areas will effectively become off-limit to the usa and israel. This could be very attractive for Iran and China.
It's not happening overnight but the usa inviting them in makes it a lot easier to start than if the usa was telling them to keep clear..
It matters when you pretend to be there for regime change. The threat of Iran and their weapons towards American civilians is microscopic to essentially zero compared to the threat of the choices you make in your own daily life. Andi if it's the weapons that are of concern, you've got plenty of avenues to solve that in other ways.
I don’t think regime change has ever been the goal. The concern was Iran would make so many ballistic missiles that stopping their nuclear ambitions in the future would be more difficult. Radical Islamists simply never can have their hands on nuclear weapons. Also, the US has other motives regarding putting strain on China and Russia and strengthening the dollar. The twelve day war severely weakened Iran. Now is obviously the time to go in for the kill.
I pretty much agree with all that. All I was arguing is that based on what Ive seen, I don't think we intentionally targeted a school. That's all.
With a defense secretary that on several occasions makes it clear he views rules of engagement as woke propaganda, a president who stands dumbfounded and addresses the issue with a mix of confusion and inane conspiracy theories, and no room for adults at the table (because it would make them look bad), the net result is predictable.
We can't put the toothpaste back in the tube with all that led up to this or who's in charge. A country hostile to the West reached the nuclear threshold. Our choice at that time is to basically allow them to acquire nukes or stop/delay them. Along with most of the West, I choose the latter.
As far as the tactics for accomplishing that, I agree this is not the way to go or the people I want calling the shots. But as I said, Iran reached the nuclear threshold and Trump is at the helm. That's the bind, which leads right back to let them continue with their nuclear program or not.
Yes it's a bit early for china but their difference is that they can probably patrol the straits with agreement from iran which would mean they then don't need to do very much. If they also station some personnel in iran then those areas will effectively become off-limit to the usa and israel. This could be very attractive for Iran and China.It's not happening overnight but the
As for Chinese capacity specifically, they have limited blue water capacity, meaning their navy is not really built for remote operations and power projection. While they are slowly changing that, they are still not there yet. Thus, even some hypothetical contribution to a policing force would likely be minor. This is easier for many "western" nations, because even those that d
Iran's not going to sink a Chinese flagged or manned vessel. So why does China need to keep the strait open? I mean, they need to keep it from being mined, but that's different from getting in the middle of all this. And sure, oil prices will go up, but China probably won't be affected as much as the rest of the world. Since Iran's oil exports are basically its only source of revenue, China will demand steep discounts just like they did with Russia.
Meanwhile, the West and our Asian allies will take the oil price hit, along with all the military costs of keeping shipping lanes open indefinitely, at least as far as we know right now. The bully-in-chief might end up with a lot of egg on his face. He's pushed a lot of people around, both domestically and internationally, and they haven't forgotten, including "little" Rubio and the likes. I don't think much has changed in the core West since the Magna Carta, other than a few instances of the nobles showing just how much they detest being bullied by kings.
If we are about to win, why do we need help? I'm confused.
Yeah, you could make that case.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...
"They should come and they should help us protect it. You could make the case that maybe we shouldn’t even be there at all, because we don’t need it. We have a lot of oil. We’re the number one producer anywhere in the world times two.”
Yeah, you could make that case.
"They should come and they should help us protect it. You could make the case that maybe we shouldn’t even be there at all, because we don’t need it. We have a lot of oil. We’re the number one producer anywhere in the world times two.”
He's leaving out the part where the US consumes far more oil than it produces. If it were the major exporter he might have a point. But it isn't, so he doesn't.
Sounds like they might have to start using hologram Netanyahu
Lmao. Even if you went up and shook Bibi's hand, you'd still be convinced he's dead because you mistook the heel of his hand as a 6th finger. Your mind is very easily manipulated.
I never really dug into the 6 finger video but the coffee video has some issues for sure. He could still be alive and the videos can still be ai.
"I knew all this stuff was gonna happen..."
"Nobody knew all this stuff was gonna happen..."
I don’t think regime change has ever been the goal. The concern was Iran would make so many ballistic missiles that stopping their nuclear ambitions in the future would be more difficult. Radical Islamists simply never can have their hands on nuclear weapons. Also, the US has other motives regarding putting strain on China and Russia and strengthening the dollar. The twelve day
1/3 8 handed.
UTG..Is a middle aged Asian lady. She seems tight passive pre flop. She has open limped a couple times. I suspect her range is something like AKo+ JJ+ AQs+. It could be slightly wider. She also seems straight forward post flop. I’ve seen her open in a similar situation to 20 then check/call a low board and check/fold a 4 straight turn. We both have around 500. Her open raises seem to be on the large size ranging from 15-28. She has not shown down yet. This is just a couple hours of play.
UTG opens to 28, folded to me on the button. I have QQ’s. The BB is extremely loose and bad post. He does have a mw donking range which has been an over pair once and a draw once. Is this just a call? Post flop could get tricky if the BB calls.
Also, why do apostrophe’s end up as an A sometimes?
Not sure Bush was dumb he conned almost every member of congress and every member of NATO except one to go to war after 9/11 that Iraq had nothing to do with and no WMDs
I would estimate W Bush as a little below average intelligence. His persona of being really dumb was fake, but he was a lot more at home playing dumb then when he tried to play smart.
Did he con anyone? I think it is more likely he was conned. The main con artist of the Iraq war was Colin Powel. They made him light on fire all the credibility he'd built up through a lifetime of public service. We know he knew what he was saying was misinformation. Bush? He couldn't be bothered to put it all together. He was on about Gog and Magog to the French PM so obviously a religious zealot with that as his main emphasis. I think he would fit right into the Trump administration in any position. They are all from the same Christian fascist death cult.
Amazing. "They weren't supposed to go after..."
This is the dude who is calling all the shots and still has people here swinging from his jock.
Nah, I wasn't doing that. I think it's likely that you are a latent homosexual. There is nothing wrong with that nor anything to be ashamed of. It's not 1970 anymore.
1/3 8 handed.UTG..Is a middle aged Asian lady. She seems tight passive pre flop. She has open limped a couple times. I suspect her range is something like AKo+ JJ+ AQs+. It could be slightly wider. She also seems straight forward post flop. I’ve seen her open in a similar situation to 20 then check/call a low board and check/fold a 4 straight turn. We both have around 500. Her
You are in the wrong forum.
Indeed
