USA Goes to War Against Iran
Time for a dedicated thread to the war.
How long will it last and what will be the probable outcome?
Nah, dude, I'm not gay.
The 'detail' would have been to address your "'it's not 1970 anymore...etc..." narrative.
Maybe in another forum.
Your guesses are almost invariably wrong, including this one.
I sometimes go off on rants, but not on that topic.
am i correct in inferring this means in the 70s you were gay?
Looks like they want to end things real quick
Israel invades Lebanon, opening new front against Iran
Israel said on Monday that it launched a ground operation in a southern swath of Lebanon and was prepared for a prolonged campaign. Israel’s defense minister said Lebanese residents will be unable to return to the area until Israel determines it has removed the threat posed by Hezbollah after it fired hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel last week, surprising some who believed the group was too weakened from previous rounds of fighting to launch a fresh attack.
Israel still considers Iran its main fighting arena for now. The conflict in Lebanon, however, is expected to continue after the Iran war ends, according to a person familiar with the matter.
luckbox seems to be the most delusional poster. being pro iran is one thing. thinking they hold all the cards is a completely different kind of insanity. I can understand the argument of some cards. but EVERY CARD? They have one single card and the us is currently trying to remove it by threatening kark island. Its them saying if you block the strait we will take your oil exports away too
luckbox seems to be the most delusional poster. being pro iran is one thing. thinking they hold all the cards is a completely different kind of insanity. I can understand the argument of some cards. but EVERY CARD? They have one single card and the us is currently trying to remove it by threatening kark island. Its them saying if you block the strait we will take your oil expor
All the cards is exaggerated but they do have that one big card. Don't think you can threaten them with kharg island, it's similar to a mutual destruction thing. If the US destroys their oil infrastructure, then Iran can do everything in its power to keep the straight closed indefinitely which will be quite hard to stop.
All the cards is exaggerated but they do have that one big card. Don't think you can threaten them with kharg island, it's similar to a mutual destruction thing. If the US destroys their oil infrastructure, then Iran can do everything in its power to keep the straight closed indefinitely which will be quite hard to stop.
Sure, just like Hawaiians could self-impose a blockade, where nothing got in or out. I mean they could, but....
Sure, just like Hawaiians could self-impose a blockade, where nothing got in or out. I mean they could, but....
This is the religious fanatic death cult and if it's between them being deposed or taking as many as they can down with them they're going to choose the latter, right? I mean that's the whole point of keeping nucs out of their hands because they're going to instantly send them to Israel?
If that's the logic then I think they'll be willing to absorb a lot of pain to their population to keep the strait closed. Enough pain to bring dunyain's scenario to fruition of a lot of the world coming together to take them out with a lot of economic damage done by then and really America will have to take the majority of the blame for this.
All the cards is exaggerated but they do have that one big card. Don't think you can threaten them with kharg island, it's similar to a mutual destruction thing. If the US destroys their oil infrastructure, then Iran can do everything in its power to keep the straight closed indefinitely which will be quite hard to stop.
friendly reminder north america gets zero oil from the gulf of hormuz (look at its location on a map americanos). It only affects the global price but it will effect North America way less. This means they will probably bully everyone into helping them because they need it way more. for example the united states has very few mine sweeping boats. but other country's do that need that oil. im pretty skeptical iran can threaten it when a few countries navy's are stationed there. Imagine China or India running low on oil and sending the fleet. We already know iran's misses and drone strikes are decreasing rapidly.
Altho the biggest issue is insurance. the tankers are not willing to risk it atm because no one will give them insurance . Russia has similar problems and they had to offer the tankers insurance out of pocketwhich solved the problem I can't imagine the us doing that by themselves but a coalition might. Once you insure the tanking company's and make the risk low enough the oil will flow but I admit its not super easy
For example the united states gets 2% of its petroleum liquids consumption from the strait of hormuz. While the higher price of oil will hit them and might be unpopular They won't actually run out of oil since they actually get it all from Canada and locally. China gets 45% of the oil from the strait so if country's start dipping deep into their reserves they are the ones who will actually have to do something about it. Theres actually zero infrastructure for Canada to send oil to china. They can't just buy the oil the us buys. They really wouldn't have a choice. Thats the true ww3 scenario i guess but more likely they just help the us. India is in the same boat. japan and korea might have a bad time but i don't think they have the navys to do anything about it.
Can't wait till trump starts tariffing oil....
friendly reminder north america gets zero oil from the gulf of hormuz (look at its location on a map americanos). It only affects the global price but it will effect North America way less. This means they will probably bully everyone into helping them because they need it way more. for example the united states has very few mine sweeping boats. but other country's do that need
Bro, you know it's a global market. Anything affecting a large portion of the world's operating costs affects the whole world, especially a country like the US that probably can't even manufacture rubber bands anymore, they're completely dependent on global infrastructure.
And what good are a bunch of navies going to do to guys with rockets fired from their shoulders 50km inland or drones, etc.... (see Houthis)
As you know it's insurance, how long will the world underwrite? Of course they can but it's a major hindrance to the global economy and all of our cost of living.
Let's not get to that point and figure out a way to open the strait diplomatically.
And speaking of the Houthis, what if those dickheads decide to close the red sea again?
Absolutely it currently is. but if the supply goes low enough it won't be. That might be the end of the petro dollar tho so I don't think they will risk it. Just because its a global market now that doesn't mean every bit of oil can get from point a to point b. You don't bring oil from Alberta to China because you have already set up pipelines to texas and you have no pipelines to the westcoast. you don't send oil from iran to the united states because it costs 10x as much because it has to go around two entire continents . Once there's enough strain on the market it will become many markets because while it is priced globally. its not equal value to bring it from every point to evert point. and trumps not exactly shy of putting tariffs on local products. This is pretty longterm stuff that hopefully won't happen because wars have started for less .
Ya they have little chance to stop all drones short term but currently iran is still exporting at near maximum capacity since the us isin't stopping them. The strategy could be to stop that so they can't afford to feed the people with the drones. If only they could actually target civilians like the crazys say it would already be over but guerilla warfare can be effective because they can't exactly slaughter civilians suspected of housing drones or civilians on tankers.
It just seems improbable that iran will be able to continue to export while they stop others. Eventually there will be retaliation and it might not be the us.
The idea that you think its a completely free global market and will remain so while your president is in a trade war with the entire world is rich
i admit they might be in quite the pickle if their goal was short term success. Iran becomes free or the world abandons the united states. its really a win win for me. I can't lose this war.
I bet their strategy was a hit and run hoping iran would implode on its own. which is still possible but it won't be quick. They just don't seem willing to commit the assets to do much more but trump is a pretty stubborn idiot. Its gonna take more then one aircraft carrier strike group
Media bias rating on a quote is a good one
For example the united states gets 2% of its petroleum liquids consumption from the strait of hormuz. While the higher price of oil will hit them and might be unpopular They won't actually run out of oil since they actually get it all from Canada and locally. China gets 45% of the oil from the strait so if country's start dipping deep into their reserves they are the ones who w
No one is worried that the U.S. will literally run out of oil. But the price of oil affects is hugely impactful, both to the economy and at the polls.
Absolutely it currently is. but if the supply goes low enough it won't be. That might be the end of the petro dollar tho so I don't think they will risk it. Just because its a global market now that doesn't mean every bit of oil can get from point a to point b. You don't bring oil from Alberta to China because you have already set up pipelines to texas and you have no pipelines
Iran can take the Hamas roadmap. If their people are starving because of a US blockade it's going to be US bad guys regardless of the fact Iran is blocking exports. They were the ones that were originally attacked, not the other way around. If they're the religious fanatics everyone paints them as, then they'll have no problem having people die to get the PR victory and pressure the US to comply.
As for the trade wars, I'm guessing the majority of countries are just trying to hang on until the Trump administration is gone and hope everything goes back to business as usual but also reducing their exposure to the whims of the next tard that works themselves up the US political ranks.
Absolutely it currently is. but if the supply goes low enough it won't be. That might be the end of the petro dollar tho so I don't think they will risk it. Just because its a global market now that doesn't mean every bit of oil can get from point a to point b. You don't bring oil from Alberta to China because you have already set up pipelines to texas and you have no pipelines
So I get it now, the US don't need middle east oil and yet they ask help to secure the straight, what for exactly?
The straight is closed because of the US and Israel strikes, how convenient.
Im not reading that garbage but I did ctrl+f to find the quote in context
“We clearly just kicked [Iran’s] ass in the field, but, to a large extent, they hold the cards now,” said one person close to the White House, who like others in this story was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the war.
Its worded to suggest trumps allies are quoted saying that but its actually just some random person. Thats called media bias
They hold the cards now’: Trump allies fear Iran is slipping beyond the president’s control
see how they put an opinion beside a quote to make it look like its a world leader or someone important . Heck I thought they were saying the president of a nato country was the source but its just someone in the mail room.
Its a single random anonymous person out of probably 10000+ people "close to the white house" so basically a useless fact but they made it the headline. Notice they don't even say in the white house. could be the guy who cleans the pool once a week.
I do agree iran holds a big card maybe even an ace. but I would probably side with the guys who destroyed 95%+ of their conventional military in a few weeks. obviously change needs to come from inside and hopefully this gives them that opening
Im not reading that garbage but I did ctrl+f to find the quote in context“We clearly just kicked [Iran’s] ass in the field, but, to a large extent, they hold the cards now,” said one person close to the White House, who like others in this story was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the war.Its worded to suggest trumps allies are quoted saying that but its actually jus
I said I posted it because it was visually amusing, I'm not dumb enough to read Politico articles. But you are.
did you miss the part where I ctrl+F searched and only read two lines? ok I read a bit more its good to be informed! you just gotta understand its a biased source. I read left and right wing sources. The articles more about the fear of boots on the ground. which is totally gonna happen now btw. At least on a certain island
