USA Goes to War Against Iran
Time for a dedicated thread to the war.
How long will it last and what will be the probable outcome?
Ok, right? Point being that it's not a useful metric for gauging what people in Iran think.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/...
The streets of London where the Iranian diaspora is divided over the future of their homeland. Some condemn the strikes on Iran as imperial overreach; others see them as a chance to end decades of authoritarian and theocratic rule.
So those Marines should arrive late next week are we about 7-10 days of troops on the ground ?
Trump really screwed this one up ?
It's sad when presidents don't listen to the generals or experts
This will be his legacy and it's looking really bad
The one thing Trump learned during his first term is he had too many people who would tell him no. This term, he fixed that.
The one thing voters should have learned during his first term is his ability to handle complicated situations is atrocious.
We'll see if the petrodollar becomes the petroyuan. But hey, at least no one is talking about ja boy Trump and his best buddy Epstein.
It's lol to hear you say a president should listen to experts when you think people should listen to youtubers or RFK instead of expert scientists when it comes to medical information.
Why should anyone blame Israel? That's like blaming a kid for a parent buying booze for their kid and someone dies. It doesn't matter what the kid says; it's up to the parent to be a parent.
It seems likely that Israel's objectives for the Iran war are different than the U.S.'s current (and ever shifting) objectives. Israeli public opinion is much more pro-war than U.S. public opinion, which means political tolerance for a very protracted conflict aimed at permanent regime change will be much great in Israel than in the U.S. If we get to the midterms and the war
Looks like that's already started:
Are Trump and Netanyahu in sync on war? The split on the gas field attack suggests not
Netanyahu said Israel ‘acted alone’ and that he’s agreed to Trump’s request to hold off on any further attack on Iran’s giant gas field
The aftermath of the strike has raised questions regarding the synchronicity of the two leaders in prosecuting a war that commenced as a closely coordinated joint effort against their long-standing regional adversary. The emergence of daylight – or at least the indication of it – between them could significantly influence the balance of the ongoing conflict and any eventual endgame.
During an Oval Office meeting with Japanese prime minister Sanae Takaichi, President Trump explicitly told reporters that he “neither agreed with nor approved of” Israel’s assault on the world’s largest gas field, which serves as an energy lifeline for Iran.
It seems likely that Israel's objectives for the Iran war are different than the U.S.'s current (and ever shifting) objectives. Israeli public opinion is much more pro-war than U.S. public opinion, which means political tolerance for a very protracted conflict aimed at permanent regime change will be much great in Israel than in the U.S. If we get to the midterms and the war
Can't blame Israel. Basically the last two reasons for Israel to have bomb shelters in their building code are Hamas and Hezbollah. I'm guessing Israeli citizens can endure quite a lot of pain if there is a chance to dry the well for those two.
No, and I didn't claim they would. They will blame the Trump administration. I said that Trump and other Republicans will blame Israel.
Yeah. This is 100% happening. Netanyahu has to know that too.
He has stated he is of the opinion that the existential danger from the IRGC and its proxies is enough, that taking the PR hit to degrade them as much as possible is worth it. And you can always rehabilitate your image later AFTER you win (which in Israel's case is survival).
And due to demographic change Israel was always going to lose its luster in the US. The truth is white people (especially religious Christian ones) were really Israel's only supporters outside the Jewish diaspora. Which meant a lot of support in the Boomer generation. But due to demographic change and loss of religiosity those people are disappearing anyways. So might as well make the best of the luster it currently has and is going to lose anyways.
People (normally antisemites) like to point out how younger generations dislike Israel and more generally Jews. But if you break it down, a lot of this is racial. It is more true to say non whites dislike Israel and Jews, and they are represented more and more in younger generations throughout the West.
Looks like that's already started:
we saw the same headlines for 2 years with Biden. how many times did they say the USA and the Biden state department were at odds with Bibi? it was usually laundered through Axios and Barak "Unit 8200" Ravid. I swear to god if we need to listen to this crap for the next 2 years...
Why should anyone blame Israel? That's like blaming a kid for a parent buying booze for their kid and someone dies. It doesn't matter what the kid says; it's up to the parent to be a parent.
I used to think this. its essentially the view Nasrallah publicly espoused. but at this point it seems that Israel is fully interlaced with the USA. Ive seen some people describe it as a "chicken or the egg" or "horse with rider." I think its more like a sweater. you cant remove certain threads from a sweater.
Ok, right? Point being that it's not a useful metric for gauging what people in Iran think.
I didn't claim anything about the extent to which the views of the Iranian diaspora align or do not align with the views of people living in Iran.
Can't blame Israel. Basically the last two reasons for Israel to have bomb shelters in their building code are Hamas and Hezbollah. I'm guessing Israeli citizens can endure quite a lot of pain if there is a chance to dry the well for those two.
IRGC has always been the main prize. Israel could always kill a mullah or two. But on its own Israel could never seriously degrade the Regime. Even with US help this is proving extremely difficult.
Israel is clearly trying to draw the rest of the world in to help by provoking Iran into attacking more and more GCC energy infrastructure; but I suspect Trump is going to call mission accomplished and pull the plug before this happens and the regime will survive. And after this kinetic phase dies down Israel will switch to trying to covertly create domestic turmoil in Iran.
From a tactical standpoint, now that the IRGC has switched to (illegal) cluster warheads Israel is letting a lot of them fall and impact. As they are much weaker, cant penetrate bomb shelters or destroy infrastructure, and the cost to shoot them down is more than the damage they cause. Of course this is giving the anti-Israel press throughout the world a lot of visual ammunition to argue Israel is getting "pummeled." But notice no one in Israel itself is calling for Israel to disengage, which should be an indication how people feel internally about how Israel is doing.
I didn't claim anything about the extent to which the views of the Iranian diaspora align or do not align with the views of people living in Iran.
Ok. I mistakingly thought that was the point you were making.
But nevertheless it's interesting how the diaspora is divided here but more united in the US. Probably a lot of the general anti-US war sentiments here are influential.
The one thing Trump learned during his first term is he had too many people who would tell him no. This term, he fixed that. The one thing voters should have learned during his first term is his ability to handle complicated situations is atrocious. We'll see if the petrodollar becomes the petroyuan. But hey, at least no one is talking about ja boy Trump and his best buddy Epst
Very well said!
Proving that even a tard like you can be articulate and smart on rare occasions.😀
there's good reason there's not a single person on this entire forum who would ever want to meet up with you in person
Sorry to ruin your narrative, but I'd like to meet Jelfrezi in person. But then I'd also like to meet insufferables like SRM and Victor in person as well. I'm a people person.
Ok. I mistakingly thought that was the point you were making.
But nevertheless it's interesting how the diaspora is divided here but more united in the US. Probably a lot of the general anti-US war sentiments here are influential.
I don't know how divided it is in the U.S. I only know a couple of members of the Iranian diaspora well enough irl to be certain of their views. They hated Khomeini and they hate Trump. They are more temperate than SRM, but their views align directionally with his.
Sorry to ruin your narrative, but I'd like to meet Jelfrezi in person. But then I'd also like to meet insufferables like SRM and Victor in person as well. I'm a people person.
i'm sure jal will come out of his dark popsicle room of sadness knowing you consider him a friend
I do
I am sure they would say all the journalists killed with their families deserved it. I am sure they are absolutely ecstatic about murdering people in Iran. in fact if you read old rafki posts he was giddy over the prospect of a war in Iran. they are genocidal Jewish Supremacists.
I mentioned them because they posted frequently in the Israel/Palestine thread and I'd noticed zero posts from either itt
What is a "Jewish Supremacist"? You're the only person I've ever seen use that phrase
you post on UP, a professed "leftist" forum. the barest minimum to be a leftist is to oppose Israel and Zionism.
I have been following that site since the day it opened, which I believe was something like 10 years ago. I have 40ish posts on there, which is less frequent than I post on even this site at 0.86 posts per day. Not sure exactly what point you're trying to make here
Raifiki got a raw deal. He'd been on the ground in Israel plenty and brought a good pov.
Mets I think got his first handjob of his life on his birthright tour and wasn't having any of it.
Raifiki got a raw deal. He'd been on the ground in Israel plenty and brought a good pov.
he definitely brought good insight into the psychopathic nature of Zionism. I did not believe a lot of what he said due to my naivety. I really did not grasp that the vast majority consider this a holy war and they want to wipe out the Muslims and consider them subhuman. but that perspective just reeks from rafki's posts. I am sure he is absolutely jubilant about the slaughter in Iran right now. he was always giddy at the prospect of war in Lebanon and Syria and Iran.
mets is banned fwiw. I thought he got unbanned at some point but I guess he got permaed again. free mets, free Blue. nothing radicalized me more than talking to those guys.
Can't blame Israel. Basically the last two reasons for Israel to have bomb shelters in their building code are Hamas and Hezbollah. I'm guessing Israeli citizens can endure quite a lot of pain if there is a chance to dry the well for those two.
I believe Israel requires certain mandatory conditional shelters for each new home construction. The IRCG has bunkers of course it looks like the rest of the population is told to go find a subway or just to gfys.
Sorry to ruin your narrative, but I'd like to meet Jelfrezi in person. But then I'd also like to meet insufferables like SRM and Victor in person as well. I'm a people person.
I’d meet you in person if I was ever over there but I’d give the fantasist rockroll a wide berth. Do you drink beer though?
Israel has been killing every IRGC commander as soon as they get promoted but this random Russian shill evades their targeted assassination? If Israel was targeting this guy he would be dead.
The more likely story is that he purposely ignored the IDFs evacuation warnings and was standing in a dangerous part of a warzone.
