USA Goes to War Against Iran

Every day new marching orders.
almost 4 weeks become 2-3 weeks.
loss=win

Can't counter that I guess.

Remember when we spent years at war in afghanistan to remove the taliban? Good times.

Yup its not like the USA needs fertilizer

I am not arguing this is a good thing. Everyone losing and the pie getting smaller isn't good. But Luckbox has some weird fantasy this is going to lead to some sort of Global Jihad, this signals the end of the US as a global power, and Messianic end time Islamists and Chinese fascists are going to take over the universe.

If Gulf energy is taken off the board, the US becomes the biggest energy supplier in the world, while much of the rest of the world has to fight for access to it. And that is our lose condition. And we are geographically isolated from the chaos and mayhem that will result by 2 large oceans.

Of course it does. But it is also less dependent on Gulf energy for fertilizer than the rest of the world.

Now I dont want any of this to happen. I want to the rest of the world to swallow its pride, stop cutting its own neck to spite its face, and join to remove the IRGC maniacs, their extortion of Gulf energy, and free the Iranian people.

What I am saying is a lose condition, where everyone loses, but the US (and Canada which can just free ride and be fine too, as long as we let them at least) loses the least.

Couldn't have described Americanism any better even if I tried.

Left is right and up is down. Even when we lose we win. You are a hilariously deluded bunch. The sooner the world moves away from the cancer that is corrupt American politicians running the show the better off we'll all be.

Imagine proudly saying this. Lunatic.

Reality is you are dependent on one country and that is Canada . Yes the USA exports more oil than it uses as it is not set up to refine that oil . Instead it relies on CDN oil at a discount that it refines for regional use. That applies to Fertilizer as well and power, aluminum, uranium........

Though it does leave Canada in a great negotiating stage for CUSMA talks this summer

The US is running 2 trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see (with no hope of return after the failure of DOGE). That alone is extremely bearish for the dollar. An oil/fertilizer shock, if Trump doesn't get this situation under control very soon, will trigger inflation that will require massive hikes at a time when people are struggling and the economy is more leveraged than ever.

Look at interest rates. The 10-year yield (i.e. the one connected to mortgages and the costs of average Americans) is close to its post-Covid highs despite the Fed funds rate (the short term number the central bank can manipulate) coming down 200 hundred basis points in that time. This is what you see out of Latin America.

All this, and the only thing Trump can do right now is buy time by manipulating the market with tweets. The simple fact is that the only way to reopen the Strait is boots on the ground, which will require the US to go into a modern drone warfare environment without proper entrenchment/jamming/supply lines.

In other words, Trump has no good options. In all likelihood he will escalate by bombing civilian targets, which is great for China in the long term. All it has to do to win Cold War 2.0 is sit back, watch the runaway spending do its work, and, with all the soft power it's gaining, slowly usurp the US's position as the head of the international economic order.

If civilian targets start getting bombed then Iran has promised to destroy gcc infrastructure. China could end up severely hurt if oil stops flowing from the region completely.

oʊki doʊki

While the US has a spending problem, China is dealing with a massive balance sheet recession and a debt-to-GDP ratio that’s actually way worse factoring in their local government debt and a collapsing property market.

But even beyond all that, they’re facing a demographic time bomb that's basically unprecedented. In other words, it’s hard to usurp the global order when their workforce is shrinking by millions every year and their aging population is exploding.

Plus, the commies can't actually replace the dollar while maintaining strict capital controls. Meaning until they're willing to let the yuan float (they never willl) and run a massive trade deficit just like we do - the USD wins "Cold War 2.0" by default.... just because of its liquidity.

The taliban was removed in 2002. After a long stretch with zero causalities Biden decided to let them come back. That awful decision is part of the reason you are currently ruled by your orange overlord.

If you watch CNN the sky is falling and we are losing the war. If you watch Fox we have basically already won the war.

I bet more liberals die of heart attacks than Conservatives. Liberals work themselves up into a frenzy every day usually over something that never happens. Also, liberals are responsible for more deaths than Conservatives because they are useful puppet idiots for the enemy. The enemy relies on the libs to support them because they canÂ’t control their hate.

And if you watch mongi news he has a freshly painted room he'd like you to join him in if you're female.

Trump's deadline/ultimatum has passed. I see no obliteration ensuing.

China is already ****ed for the reasons John eluded. The Yuan ain’t replacing jack ****. It is useless as an international currency because of how the CCP controls it.

Gulf oil being shut off would be absolutely catastrophic for them. They are basically getting Iranian oil for free now and their economy is ****ed . If they had to compete on the open market for limited energy their inevitable demise would just accelerate.

The existence of the IRGC is complete anethema to civilization itself. And the sooner he rest of the world wakes up to this the better.

Haha. Pretty crazy how out of touch this is. Right wing media is based exactly on what you’re talking about with trans panic, migrants elections are rigged etc. Rush Limbaugh or Tucker Carlson have based careers on it. There really is no comparable liberal alternative. You listen to pbs or npr, which actually have audiences which will lean liberal because of higher education and grad degree % a typical rural won’t like it because they are too dry and don’t play on rage baiting.

So the very big and special present is Iran let pass 10 boats through the strait?

Ahahahahahahahahahaah!

I'm pretty sure trump was the one that made a deal with the taliban.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Sta...

heh, ngl he had me for a second too...

China is at the cutting edge of factory robotics, so they are fine in terms of workforce. It used to be that they hired the Germans to come in and get everything up to speed, and more and more it's the Germans hiring the Chinese to do so. Elon is America's only hope to compete with the Chinese in the factory robotics arms race. He's already ceded the international EV market to them, so it's not looking good.

As for your other point, Japan also has a very high debt-to-GDP ratio, but it doesn't hurt them because they have a massive current account surplus and can always sell US/EU/UK bonds to bail out the yen. China is in a similar position. By comparison, the only non-domestic assets the US has is the gold in Fort Knox, and, if they are smart, they will let the dollar get destroyed before selling it.

At this point it might be best to just tax everyone going through the next 5 years split between IRGC, Trump family and the west. After that either Iran moderates or we have non Trump people in charge who can deal with it.

Oh, I don't know. A year ago John Oliver went on a peculiar 'liberal' rant claiming that men have no innate advantage over women in sport, a line he took purely to be contrarian against the administration (and most of the public), with the apparent goal of being on the Right Side of History, except the International Olympic Committee has today belatedly but decisively rejected that view on the unsurprising grounds of scientific evidence.

trump has just extended the deadline by 10 days

fair chance that means the ground invasion is planned for within the next 9 days

he tacoed