I think I made a mistake with the nuts...
WSOP Main Event Day 1D some years ago (after covid hit)... I tend to play Day 1D because the field is larger and a lot of outstanding players don't play in Day 1D because there is no day off between Day 2 and Day 3 whereas in Days 1A, 1B, and 1C there would be a day off between Day 2 and Day 3.
We are at the third level 200/400 so after the first break. I have about a starting stack of 60,000 and UTG has a bit more. UTG who has been raising a lot in EP (and everywhere) raises to 1,000. I am in MP and look down at AQo and I 3-bet to 3,000 which I don't usually do against UTG but here I thought I should. It folds to UTG who calls.
Flop is KJT with a flush draw (if I remember correctly). Check I bet 4,000 (because it smashes my range) and he calls.
Turn is a 7 no flush and no 2nd flush draw. He checks I bet 10,000 and he thinks for a few seconds and calls.
Under my breath I am saying "don't pair the board, don't pair the board" and the river is a 3 with no flush. I do a little math in my head and I see the pot at like 35,000 chips. I decide to throw out a 25,000 chip. In part because I think it will look like a bluff with me trying to make it look big. In part because it was like half his stack and I always think players will be willing to lose half their remaining stack on the river. In part because a prior year WSOP Main Day 1 I had hit a nut straight on the turn and bet 10,000 against like 4 players in a 15,000 chip pot and got called by one player (who likely had hit his gutter) and on the river I again bet 10,000 (because I knew he would call with his straight) and got called and he showed me the worse straight and I felt stupid for not betting bigger like pot. So here keeping that in mind I didn't want to bet 10,000 or even 16,000. But I also didn't want to bet 35,000 because I thought in Day 1 very few people would call that with a set (or 2 pair) because even if I was bluffing 33%+ of the time and it was +EV to call, people wouldn't call much because it would cripple them like 2/3 of the time. Also I knew he didn't have KK or he would have 4 bet preflop so I though he had hands like JJ/TT/KJs/KTs.
He tanked for 5+ minutes and in my life I never called for the clock. But this was a prefect spot for it to make it look like I wanted a fold. But for some very stupid reason I didn't do it. So my bad. But this isn't what I am asking here. Should I have bet 10,000? or 16,000? or 35,000? instead of the 25,000 I bet? Obviously he folded (and showed me JJ) and I was bummed. My gut feeling afterwards was that 16,000 was the right bet. Because it could still be AK. But 10,000 would have gotten an auto call. 16,000 I don't know but a better chance than 25,000. And 35,000? I get now that 35,000 is polarizing at pot size and might just have drawn a call because of the increased bluff possibility. Especially with a flush draw out there.
12 Replies
Would bet smaller because it's the main event mainly. You're not betting Aces or AK ever if you even do at all for this size and you have no bluffs with this line so you need to go smaller.
You were praying for a no board pair on the river, so you must have suspected villain had a set a lot of the time.
You should have bet bigger on the turn. A little over pot is about right. He’s never folding.
Then you can bet river for a milky size if you want because it’s the main…
You were praying for a no board pair on the river, so you must have suspected villain had a set a lot of the time.
You should have bet bigger on the turn. A little over pot is about right. He’s never folding.
Then you can bet river for a milky size if you want because it’s the main…
I like this the more I think about it. This board doesn't just smash your range, it smashes a lot of 3-bet continuing ranges (at least the ones that didn't fold to your large flop bet). If you think he has a set then he's gonna call a huge turn bet for sure. Just go for it.
Good sizing
You should play aggressively versus villain and others if he is folding 3rd nuts. Because you 3!, I guess he is worried about KK. Seems like a bad laydown, even though he was beat. You could be betting worse than JJ for value.
He also shouldn't show when folding 3rd nuts.
Let's look at the sizes of all streets, first from theory, then from real life.
Theory just doesn't bet big on the flop. The flop smashes your range, but it also smashes his. Your sizing gives Villain too many easy decisions; with his small pairs and other weak hands he has an easy fold. He will continue with a lot of stuff though, since he has a fair bit of Qx, 2P etc that will continue to your bigger size.
In practice, I like your big bet here.
On the turn, I expected the solver to want a bigger bet. It's pretty easy to get all in by the river with 2e, which is basically close to a pot sized bet. Here you took the smaller size. Let me explain further why I think you should go bigger here.
First, what are we targeting? Usually in these spots you want to target the strongest part of Villain's range. Here that is Q9s/ JJ/TT/KJs/JTs. I think all of those hands will have an easy call, even vs a larger sizing. Add in the Broadway Qx that probably isn't folding either. Whatever stuff he had below that (say T9s, 99, A9s etc will fold to either size)
Second, we want to make sure that we get max value here. You had all the information you needed to make a max exploit on the turn of betting larger. You thought Villain had a strong range. More importantly, you correctly thought Villain wouldn't call a big bet on the river. That is exactly why you want to bet bigger on the turn, because:
Third, on the river Villain can no longer outdraw you. He can only call if he thinks he is good a sufficient amount of the time. When you bet that big, you need to have enough bluffs in your range to make calling profitable. He probably knows he can't beat value. What are your bluffs here? I suspect a solver would bluff with something like QJ or QQ, blocking AQ.
When you get to the river and want to go for value, ask yourself, what am I targeting? What bluffs am I repping? If you can't name many (any?) bluffs, that means you need to go smaller, that way Villain can cry call with hands that think they can beat value.
As played the solver does like your river sizing, as it makes JJ indifferent to calling. You can see that he was by his 5 minute tank, though I suspect he was leaning fold the whole time, and having a funeral for his hand.
The only thing I don’t like about your river bet sizing is you did not price him in to make the crying call with a hand like he has. When he doesn’t goes over the top of you on the turn and no flush is possible, sets and two pairs are the most likely V holdings. Frankly, I would dismiss Q9 as played as well, especially the utg raise. He was playing cautious for a reason on all the other streets, so he wasn’t calling your river size up bet for the same reason he never moved on you. You get paid with a 10k or 16k bet.
He was signaling to you that he. Had enough value to call but not bet with a flopped straight or higher set on board on each street.
I like sizing large on these broadway boards as your opponent usually has a strong hand. Think you played the hand well on each street - if you knew he had JJ you'd probably size the same.
I can't see how he folds JJ. It is literally only losing to AQ and KK. You could be playing TT or KJs this way for value. Not sure how you would think he likely had a set.
Because with this flop and no change to what is the nuts on turn and river and a guy putting in 2/3 of his chips post flop?
Thanks for all of the replies.
I had a hand today at the $500 Borgota Spring Open Almighty Stack Day 1 tournament that was eerily similar to the hand in this thread.
Villain was a super aggro guy who had a very very wide opening range. He also 3-bet frequently on the BTN or CO. He had over 200,000 chips and we started with 100,000. I had about 135,000 chips after calling a monster bluff on a KT7TK board where I had raised with KQ and had been 3-bet. He had bet the flop (2500) and turn (6500) and I led out the river at 6000 because I wanted to make it look like a blocking bet and I didn't want him to check back AA. He then raised to like 23,000 and I insta called and he had no K or TT.
Villain raised EP to 1500. Blinds were 300/600 I think. I looked down at A5s on the BTN and 3-bet to 4500 he thought a moment and called. Flop was A85 with two diamonds he checks I bet 4000 he calls. Turn is a 7 and was the second heart. He checked and I bet 12,000 (slightly more than I did in the hand in this thread) and he called. So my thinking was he either has a flush draw or a biggish A but not AK. River is the A of hearts. So I have close to the nuts. He checks and I bet 20,000 (which is like if I had bet 16,000 in the hand in this thread). I thought about making it 12,000 which he would absolutely call with an A. But I liked making it more. He thought about it for a few seconds and then called (he never showed his cards). My other option would have been a pot sized bet like 42,000. I just felt like he wouldn't have called because I could easily have AK/AQ and I didn't think he had a set the way it played out because he could have c/r'd the flop or turn.
On that runout with the draw bricking and the board staying clean, 25k into 35k seems fine to me. Villain's calling range on the turn is mostly two pair, sets, and busted combo draws that are probably calling any reasonable sizing anyway. I'd actually lean toward jamming since Q9 is the only hand that ties you and it's not in villain's UTG raising range that often at 200/400 level. The "looks like a bluff" logic is genuinely real in live poker though, I've seen players at the Main snap call off 100bb+ with top two because they convinced themselves the big bet was suspicious.
