The NHL Thread
For the 5 of us who post NHL stuff, here you go. Officially the season starts Tuesday October 11, although there were tw
What in the epic collapse happened? They were tied!
yeah if it's not the canucks i'll take golds all day every day
jets and sens are fine
habs are whatever, but i don't really want them ending the streak after starting it
laffs, loilers and flames can all burn in hell
Canadiens lose a potential series-clinching game at home when leading by multiple goals for the first time in franchise history
Alex Lyon has been credited with one save. His save percentage now lies at .250 for the game.
Dahlin becomes the first defenseman to score 5 points in an elimination game
everything coming up sabres. and canes
oh, ****!
How quick you were to jump on Mr. Lyon for 0 saves when he actually had one!
Another Matheson Matherclass. He eats tons and tons of minutes, but maybe not so skillfully. He's been the worst Dman for the Habs in xG% in the playoffs and was 2nd to last in the reg season ahead of only Arber and 2nd to last 2 seasons ago as well. His best season of the last 3 he was only middle of the pack (in a weak as **** group of Habs Dmen).
Had his usual dumb penalty as well when he took the 4 min high sticking only a minute after the Habs went up 3-1, then promptly gave up a goal and were right back under pressure.
Already 32 and still has 4 more seasons left at 6M per. A rare Kent Hughes L imo.
Golden boy Lane still crushing tho
I didnt like the contract when it was signed I am not liking it much more today. Funnily in game 2 I was so fkn tilted at Carrier and then he sniped that one goal and I gave him the benefit of the doubt. But nah him and Matheson are a d-pairing from hell. What is MSL actually doing to manage the game? Srsly you hit the ice infront of this crowd and the team thinks ok its time for another stinker.
⚾ Game Analysis: San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics (May 17, 2026) – Under 9.5 vs. Over 9.5
PART I – DETAILED STATISTICAL AND SUBSTANTIVE ANALYSIS
1. Introduction and Series Context
The San Francisco Giants (19-27, .413) face the Athletics (23-22, .511) on May 17, 2026, at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento. This is the third and deciding game of the series. On Friday, the Athletics won 5-2; on Saturday, the Giants won 6-4.
The odds on under 9.5 and over 9.5 are identical at -110. The total line is set at 9.5 runs, which is higher than the MLB season average (approximately 8.7 runs per game).
The purpose of this analysis is to determine which side of the total – under or over – offers higher expected value.
2. Starting Pitchers – The Heart of the Matchup
Adrian Houser (San Francisco Giants) – Right-Hander
Record: 1-4
ERA: 5.79
WHIP: 1.55 (estimated)
In his last start (May 13 against the Dodgers), Houser delivered a quality outing: 5.2 innings, 2 earned runs, a win. His earlier starts were disastrous – May 6 against San Diego: 4.1 innings, 5 earned runs.
His advanced metrics are alarming. His xFIP of 4.85 is slightly better than his ERA, but still poor. His K/9 is only 6.2, and his BB/9 is 3.9. Houser doesn't strike out many batters and walks too many.
Key weakness: Houser has a HR/9 of 1.35. At hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park (dimensions: 330 to left, 325 to right, 400 to center, park factor 121 for home runs), this is a recipe for disaster.
Jeffrey Springs (Athletics) – Left-Hander
Record: 3-3
ERA: 4.22
WHIP: 1.28
In his last start (May 13 against St. Louis), Springs lost 6-4 but wasn't terrible: 5.1 innings, 4 earned runs. Earlier, on May 3 against Cleveland, he won 7-1 after 6 innings with 1 earned run.
His advanced metrics are solid – xFIP of 3.95, K/9 of 8.7, BB/9 of 2.8. Springs has good control and can strike batters out.
Springs is returning from Tommy John surgery in 2024 and is gradually regaining form. His best start this season was April 15 against Texas: 6 innings, 1 earned run.
Starting Pitcher Verdict: Slight advantage to Springs, but both starters are run-prone. Houser (5.79 ERA) is one of the worst starters in the National League. Springs (4.22 ERA) is average. This is not a duo that suggests a low-scoring game.
3. Bullpens – Can They Keep the Score Low?
San Francisco Giants
The Giants' bullpen is one of the worst in the National League. Matt Gage (1 save, ERA approx. 3.50) and Sean Hjelle (ERA approx. 4.00) are average options. Ryan Walker (ERA approx. 3.80) and Tyler Rogers (ERA approx. 4.20) are not elite.
In Saturday's game, the Giants used Kilian (0.2 innings, 3 earned runs – disastrous), Gage (1 scoreless inning), and likely others. The bullpen is slightly tired but not exhausted.
Athletics
The Athletics' bullpen is better. Joel Kuhnel (ERA approx. 3.00), Hogan Harris (3 saves, ERA approx. 3.20), and Austin Adams (ERA approx. 3.50) are solid options.
In Friday's game, the Athletics used Kuhnel, Suarez, Medina, and Harris (save). On Saturday, Severino started and lost, but the bullpen worked only 2 innings (Harris and Medina). This means the Athletics' bullpen is well-rested for Sunday.
Bullpen Verdict: Slight advantage to the Athletics, but neither bullpen is elite enough to guarantee a low score. Both bullpens have ERAs above 3.80.
4. Offensive Analysis – Which Team Can Score Runs?
San Francisco Giants
As a team, the Giants are hitting .243 with a .663 OPS – below National League average.
Luis Arraez (.318 AVG, .770 OPS) is the offensive leader. In Saturday's game, he had 4 hits. He's a base-getting machine but has no power (only 1 HR this season).
Casey Schmitt (.293 AVG, .878 OPS, 8 HR) is in hot form – on Saturday, he hit 2 home runs. He's the most dangerous hitter in the Giants' lineup.
Heliot Ramos (.267 AVG) is solid but left Friday's game with right quad tightness – his availability for Sunday is uncertain.
The Giants' problem: lack of depth. Willy Adames (.235), Rafael Devers (.247), Matt Chapman (.216) – all are hitting below expectations.
Athletics
The Athletics' offense is hitting .252 with a .734 OPS – above American League average.
Shea Langeliers (.337 AVG, 1.005 OPS, 12 HR) is one of the best hitters in MLB. His power is authentic.
Nick Kurtz (.270 AVG, .910 OPS, 8 HR) has a 39-game on-base streak – absurd form. On Friday, he hit a home run; on Saturday, he drew a walk.
Carlos Cortes (.340 AVG, .946 OPS) is the surprise of the season.
Jeff McNeil (.278 AVG) and Jacob Wilson (.292 AVG) provide solid depth.
Offensive Verdict: Clear advantage to the Athletics. Langeliers, Kurtz, and Cortes form a trio that can dominate any starter, especially a weak one like Houser.
5. The Ballpark Factor – Sutter Health Park, West Sacramento
Sutter Health Park is one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in MLB. According to this season's data, the park factor is 121 for home runs and 115 for overall runs scored (where 100 is neutral).
Dimensions: 330 feet to left field, 370 to left-center, 400 to center, 370 to right-center, 325 to right field.
Sunday's weather: light wind blowing out (approximately 7 mph), temperature around 26°C (79°F), no precipitation – ideal conditions for fly balls.
Ballpark Verdict: The stadium clearly favors the over. In a park with these parameters, even average pitchers struggle.
6. Team Form and Trends
San Francisco Giants (19-27, .413)
Last 10 games: 5-5 (W1)
Road record: 9-15
Run Differential: -46 (155 RS, 201 RA)
The Giants are one of the weakest offensive teams in the National League.
Athletics (23-22, .511)
Last 10 games: 5-5 (L1)
Home record: 10-11
Run Differential: -4 (199 RS, 203 RA)
The Athletics are in playoff contention in the AL West.
Total Trends:
Giants: 8 of their last 12 games have gone under 9.5 runs
Athletics: 7 of their last 10 home games have gone over 9.5 runs
At Sutter Health Park this season: 62% of games have exceeded 9.5 runs
The trends are contradictory – the Giants play unders, the Athletics play overs at home.
7. Historical Matchups – Houser and Springs vs. Opponents
Adrian Houser vs. Athletics (career):
3 starts
15.1 innings
10 earned runs (5.87 ERA)
4 home runs allowe
Jeffrey Springs vs. Giants (career):
2 starts
11 innings
6 earned runs (4.91 ERA)
3 home runs allowed
Both starters have poor historical results against today's opponents.
8. Weather and Game Conditions
Forecast for Sunday, May 17 in West Sacramento:
Temperature: 26°C (79°F) at 7:00 PM, dropping to 22°C (72°F) by 10:00 PM
Wind: 7-9 mph from the right (blowing out)
Humidity: 45%
No precipitation
Wind blowing out at Sutter Health Park increases fly ball distance by approximately 5-7%. This is another factor favoring the over.
9. What Experts and Media Are Saying
The Associated Press, after Saturday's game, highlighted Nick Kurtz's phenomenal streak: "Kurtz extended his on-base streak to 39 games, tying Jason Giambi. It's one of the most impressive feats in Athletics history."
MLB.com, in its preview, noted the contrast between the starters: "Houser has a 5.79 ERA and is one of the most home-run-prone pitchers in the NL. Springs is better, but even good pitchers suffer at Sutter Health Park."
FanGraphs pointed out that the over in games started by Houser this season is 9-3 (75%).
10. Summary of Part I – Hard Data Points to OVER
Gathering all available public information:
Starting pitchers: Houser (5.79 ERA) and Springs (4.22 ERA) – both are run-prone.
Bullpens: Average, no elite closers.
Offense: The Athletics are clearly better; the Giants have Arraez and Schmitt.
Ballpark: Sutter Health Park is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB (121 HR factor).
Wind: Blowing out, increasing fly ball distance.
Trends: The Athletics play overs at home (7 of last 10).
Recommendation after Part I: OVER 9.5 (-110). All indicators – statistical, ballpark, and weather – suggest the game should exceed 9.5 runs.
PART II – NON-STATISTICAL FACTORS (SYSTEMIC, FINANCIAL, AND STRUCTURAL)
The three sources below all point in the same direction: OVER 9.5.
Source One – Unusual Betting Patterns on Adrian Houser and His Agent in Nevada
Adrian Houser is represented by Excel Sports Management, one of the largest agencies in baseball. However, according to sources in the Las Vegas gambling industry, unusual activity on unders in games started by Houser has been recorded over the last 14 days.
Strangely, Houser has a 5.79 ERA this season, and his games average 11.2 runs per game. Nevertheless, in his last two starts (May 6 against San Diego – 10 runs, May 13 against the Dodgers – 5 runs), significant amounts were bet on the under before first pitch.
According to an anonymous source from a casino in Reno (a former compliance department employee who spoke on condition of anonymity), these bets came from accounts linked to individuals in Houser's agent's circle. "These aren't huge amounts – 10,000−10,000−20,000 per bet – but the pattern is unusual. Someone knows something about Houser that we don't."
The source added that there are rumors in the industry that Houser is dealing with a personal issue (not publicly disclosed) that affects his concentration. Some sources suggest his marriage is in crisis and that he has alcohol problems – though none of these claims have been confirmed. If this information is true, Houser could be even worse than his ERA indicates.
In the context of today's game, if Houser is in poor mental condition, the Athletics – with Kurtz, Langeliers, and Cortes – could dominate him. That would lead to an over, not an under. However, the betting patterns suggest insiders are betting the under – which is puzzling.
A more likely explanation: Houser has a documented history of poor performances at Sutter Health Park. In 2024, when he played for the Mets, in his only start at this park, he allowed 7 runs in 4 innings. If he repeats that performance today, the game will quickly exceed 9.5.
Source Two – The Setting of the Total Line by Oddsmakers and Money Flows
The total line opened at 9.5 runs. In the 48 hours before the game, the line has not moved at all – this is unusual, given that 78% of the handle (money wagered) is on the over. Normally, when such a high percentage of money goes to one side, the line moves by 0.5 or 1 run.
More info from additional sources is available on my website:
victory picks.eu/premium
Analysis prepared based on public data (MLB.com, Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, ESPN) and non-public information from anonymous sources within MLB organizations, betting firms, and the financial sector. Date: May 17, 2026.
He'll make one of his little lineup changes (I'll guess Gallagher in) and shift a line or 2, and that will be the extent of it. Although some1 (Dobes I think) said he gave one helluva speech before one of the recent wins, so hopefully he's got at least 1 more in the tank.
TB pretty much took away our stars (Cole, Demi, etc) for the entire series and MSL was mostly powerless to do anything about it. Luckily Dobes was pretty great and a couple guys stepped up for a game here and there.
Also wonder if Slaf hasn't gotten his bell absolutely rung 2-3x and barely knows where he is now.
The Canes are going to be tired from resting. I really hope we don’t look rusty. We played 8 games in the final 13 days of the regular season. By Thursday, we’ll have played 8 playoff games in 36 days.
This rest is also really nice for the guys who played in the Olympics. And especially for Freddie, who thrives off of rest.
The experience, starting at home, focus, system, coaching, etc. should all be in our favor. Buffalo/Montreal are going to find out scoring isn’t actually that easy.
Canes will lose game 1. But over the course of the series they will have more energy.
In a normally paced season, I think the Canes would be really sluggish in game 1, but in a jam-packed Olympic year, I think the rest will be quite beneficial and they'll do well in game 1.
not ideal
No one posting through the 1p of a Game 7 w Montreal involved?
Luukkonen has been great
great job by the 4th line
Looks like I tuned in at the right time. Watched Dobes flop after taking some minor contact and now the goal.
Game 7 OT is peak sports.
Stfu Mark Messier I'd slap the shyte out of you then wipe my ass across your bald head.
canes never gonna get to play again smdh
These Canadians don't have what it takes like the 1960s Canadians did.
How did housenuts get banned?
Arber with less than 2 minutes of total icetime lol
