2/5 - to thin value or not to thin value.

The place where you missed value was the turn. When both players call the small flop bet, and you unblock TP and pair plus FD hands, you need to go much bigger.

I think betting river small versus this player and trying to induce a spewy XR might be viable, but against virtually any other player, I would think that it would be very difficult to get value from worse here.

Say we bet 100, V x/jam........We have induced what we hoped for, but do we really stick with our original plan ????
I mean that's like 830ish eff on the river.

The only reason to bet small would be to induce.

In general, small river bets IP are bad because the benefit of getting 1/4 pot doesn't outweigh the fact that we have reopened the action for an aggressive villain to blow us off of our hand. Here, we would be trying to exploit an opponent that might be over-bluffing. If we don't want to call off, we should just check back or choose a sizing that gets legit value from 2p. As I mentioned, I think check back is the play against most opponents.

Also worth noting that betting $100 on the river and getting called is the exact same result as betting $200 on the turn and getting called, except we don't build the pot for the times when the river is the 8c or the 2h. Choosing the wrong turn sizing is a bigger mistake because it compounds on the river.

flop but especially turn are bad sizings like above said. turn should be at least 75% pot.

It's easy to offer a critique here because this was a very bad runout for H. MW I think flop bet needs to be bigger. AP I'm very focused on V's continue range on flop. What is it?

Obviously we hope it's all his Kx that we have dominated. Unfortunately, almost every other combo and bdfd gets there by the river and JT has us beat on the turn.

I'm checking behind river because I cannot see what we're going to get value from here that we beat. Now V can have KJ and could have called the turn confidently blocking the nuts and perhaps skeptical that H has AK. But that's really the only source of value for us and he should really fold everything else that's behind our set.

Everything else in his continuing range has us beat. It's too thin and if v xr, we get something like 3-2 to call a jam which isn't that great.

Your bet size otf is probably correct in theory, but you may want to go bigger as an exploit: live nobody folds neither TP nor an OESD on the flop.

As played flop, the OESD got there ott, and we are still 3-way, so I don't think we should go much bigger than what you did.

River is not a great card for us either, but HU I think you can still squeeze some value: I'd b/f ~150

Grunch:

PRE - seems fine to me, if the $10 straddle is on.

FLOP - seems fine. If we think V is in revenge mode, I think we could get away with c-betting a little larger. But $35 is fine, when it's 3-ways.

TURN - seems fine. I might size down slightly, to see if he wants to x/r now that JT comes in, and he might have some 2P combos or occasionally a lower set that didn't x/r the flop. A small turn bet might also induce him to donk river if he has a better hand.

RIVER - Ehhhh...I'm not loving this card. When V just flats pre in the SB, I don't think he's going to have much KJ/KQ. And I'd think KJ might donk here at some frequency.

This is going to depend a lot on what I think of V, specifically how often I think he's going to donk river with a better hand. He's going to get here with some draws that came in on the turn or river, and the thin value / SDV portion of his range has been significantly downgraded.

If we want to bet, I'd think we'd want to size down, to target his worse value. But that looks like we have thin value, and he could x/r. Since we just saw him x/r with SDV, I'd think an x/r here would be more weighted towards thick value.

Even if it feels kinda nitty, I think it would be reasonable to check this back, when the BDFD comes in and any T is a straight.

I think you need to adjust your thinking here
Whenever you have a decent chance of losing if you check-back (little flush, ignorant end of the straight), then it makes no sense to be betting.

You lose value when worse hands would have called, but I don’t think that’s the case here.

Thinking about this more...

I don't like bet-folding using a middling bet size here, just based on the SPR. It sucks to bet $200-$300 and then fold to a jam, when we can just check back.

But if we think he'll x/r a lot, maybe we can induce him to raise with worse. I could see betting really small, like $50, with a plan to call a raise up to $300.

My thinking is that a really small bet here puts him in a $hltty spot. He'll want to raise for value with his nutted hands, but he can't really go huge if he wants us to call. He might think he has to turn his worse value into a bluff, and that he doesn't need to go huge to make us fold.

I'm just thinking that we get here with hands like AKdd and KQhh that might bet thin but can't withstand much heat. And he gets here with a lot of SDV hands that might win if we check back but have to raise as a bluff if we bet, and also some nutted hands that can take this line for value.

If he doesn't x/r, maybe he just flicks in a light curiosity call, and we get another $50 from a hand like K6ss.