2025 Trading Thread

Why you think so ?
Especially $ Canadian at 69 usd ?

Trump has no loyalty and no decorum. I don't get the impression he is going to maintain the status quo for a long term view. He has 4 years to pillage.

Recent messaging from Trump has me thinking Venezuela is positioned to step in and subsidize any production or import differences from a Canadian fallout

Venezuela is far tho (transport) but trump love anti democratic leaders .
Will see .

I think... that you are thinking to much.

an oil play isn't really great for growth, but for hedge or safety... and to a much lessor extent when that oil is being sourced from a sanctioned hostile sovereign nation.

if you want to go long on the producers, that is trouble imho... if you want to go long on the price of oil/brent, that is even more troublesome with the administrations admission to... Drill baby Drill.

DjT has NOT mislead about anything he has said leading up to his inauguration... why would Oil be any different.

Venezuela's oil company is state-owned, so no way to invest in it. You'd have to come up with some indirect bet, which is almost always a mistake.

I appreciate the insights

Good day to add to HOOD.

Hello everyone.

Tesla guy here, ready to jump! (from a bridge)

Maybe if Elon doubles down and fakes more gaming results, tells more nazi jokes, and interferes with international politics, maybe then number will go up?

All the best,
Tuma

Not sure if you’re joking but no amount of $ is worth your life

Was 100% satire, sorry. And thanks for the offer of caring.

How high a bridge were you considering?

No worries, I get it. This stuff can be super frustrating sometimes. Nice to be able to come on the forums and vent a bit

Nothing wrong taking profits from the top shrug

Today was hedge the hedge day. I always carry some sort of put hedges on my portfolio. Sometimes light and sometimes heavy. This time I was on the heavier side as I thought the kind of recent action was due. Anyway I had some wide SPY and QQQ put verticals on (APR 585/560 in spy and APR 500/475 in qqq) I also had a handful of spy MAR 570p leftover from a calendar spread where the FEB expired.

I turned all of that stuff into butterfies for credits which is where I wanna be. If we rally back I don't lse anything and make the credits on the butterflies. If we continue down these things could really pay off. If we have armageddon I still get the credits. But I almost never have an armageddon hedge on and don't really feel the need for one at this point.

I don't trade much anymore but I am always looking for ways to get "free" shots which often require tasking some risk to get there. Whenever I can get some nice wide flies for a credit it makes me happy.

I've never really tried to time the market before now. Definitely not in a big way. Always deposit regularly when I get paid and watch my investments grow. Recently, I sold all my assets near the top and I'm not concerned at all. I know the maniacs in charge of the US are going to tank the markets and I'll buy back in once they finish destroying the economy.

what if it keeps going up, when will you buy back in?

what if it goes down, when will you buy back in?

I had 2 friends basically say same thing to me in the last 3 days, like it is something going around hitting people all at once.

Time in the market > timing the market

If you want to do some timing buy some options

People on this forum will hold bitcoin forever through 50% downward moves but dump equities over 3% downward moves.

Funny that.

I'm retired early because I never tried to time the market. MAGA is destroying the country and the economy along with it. I sold at the top and have made a lot of money already. I'll buy back in when things are cheap in a couple years if the country still exists when they finish.

TDS is serious business 😀

Care to expand on this thesis?

After we've run up 70% the last 2 years, a 2022 type correction is certainly on the table but predicting something more cataclysmic is always more difficult than it seems

The markets did well the last few years because of stability and reasonable policy. We now have the opposite of that. I chose to turn my assets to cash near the top so that I don't lose money in a time of uncertainty. I didn't do any math, simply protecting my assets from the robber barons while emulating their strategy (cause chaos and crash markets then buy in cheap).

Trump will steal everything that isn't bolted down and run the country to the ground. That's my thesis.

'I sold at the top' is always hilarious to hear about the market.

I made back my 2008-09 losses in less than 2 years.

None of you can market-time. It's practically impossible.

If your random dart throw came good, I'm glad you made money, but don't confuse luck for skill.

Dude with 12 posts is now a market and a economic and a political expert.

What was your banned username?