2025 Trading Thread

Yep! Any long term chart will tell you "the market goes up!". If he would have used this strategy the first Trump term by selling one month in there was never another chance. Perfectly timing the nut lows of covid was about a scratch but no real discount. You get out you likely miss everything.

it's the new world we live in

when i pointed out in this guy's day trading blog that doing nothing but past posting winners will do nothing to help his credibility they were censored by mods to protect someone probably posting to scam in the near future

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/226/h...

Hey, is Martin Shkreli a good source for learning financial literacy? He has volumes of youtube videos teaching investing, Excel, and company valuations.

Normally I would be certain he is. But I've only recently realized the truth about Musk, and my confidence in assessing people/character is shot. I trust this forum more than before.

good luck....found your post interesting because like i said a few of my friends said the same thing in the last week

heard people say this when biden/obama were prez too

just people throwing money away imo, this is the type of thing you hear at a top but we've been given an incredibly easy way to invest in the greatest economic engine there ever was and people still find ways to mess it up.....I've gotten my face ripped off market timing a few times when I was younger as well, it is just tough to do.

I think after 00 and 08, it just seemed like the market was gonna get cut in half every 8 years and people thought it was easy to predict

many

Any thoughts on names that would benefit from a surge in home sales? The mortgage rate is like 6.25, and if the 10-year keeps getting pulled down from growth scare/liquidity momentum, it seems quite possible we see mortgage rates with a 5 handle. There's plenty of housing supply, especially with immigration now halted (less demand). So it shapes up for lots of people buying houses.

What names do best in that scenario? Obvious things are UHAL, RH, WSM. Maybe mattress companies. Maybe RKT and UWMC. Any commentary on those stocks or others that might initially get overlooked in a homebuying surge?

Any takes on the atlanta fed #? i know it went negative twice in 2022 and things kept going business as usual but -2.8% is a whopper

I think it's just getting ahead of tariffs. In other words, businesses ordered a bunch of stuff from overseas before the tariffs get enacted, and this mechanically lowers the GDP (since it's gross DOMESTIC product, and foreign purchases are negative).

I learned a lot from watching his videos and made a lot of money recently copying his quantum stocks bubble short idea too.

75% sure bottom is in. Need a few more talking head experts to say we need to test lower until I am sure, then it is certain. In any event there isn't much downside risk from here. Then again, what the hell do I know?

Euro defence stocks have grown to be about a third of my trading account.

On the one hand I feel just for general risk management I should trim.

But on the other, this is a multi year multi percentage GDP growth industry, and I should just sit on my hands.

Just buy a put option then ?

We will see next week. Last time we were so oversold was Oct-22 but the market went down again but also bottomed in Oct-22.
Much will depend on the stupidity of the WH.

What bottom? Local bottom or multi-month/multi-year bottom? There is a reckoning that we will face for coming out of covid higher than we came in. You can't just manufacture good times for ever.

Powell...
we expect fed fund rate will reach 3.9% later in the year

dovish imo

Those Mar 570/555/540 butterflies worked about as well as they could! Had them on for about a $150 credit and got out for an average of $850 for a 1K profit per. Used half the profit for real downside protection and half to buy some longs. Still have the very wide Apr butterflies on in both SPY and QQQ which we are pretty much smack dab in the middle of. But with a month to go they could end up anywhere but I have about 1K of profit per in those too. I may or may not bail on those too to both buy more downside and more longs. If they stay inside it time decay is my friend. I'll decide this weekend.

Most hedges suck but this one couldn't have worked any better. This one likely pays for the rest of the hedges for 2025

2025 bottom. My guess is low is in for the year. However 😀 This time it's different? April 2 tariff BS could be a game changer and all bets are off! Then again its never different 😀 This smells and feels like a normal correction which was well overdue. Then again what the hell do I know? The further we fall the stronger the bounce. Equities are in a perpetual uptrend.

You can def learn from him and maybe copy his best ideas

SAVA last year was entertaining af.
If you arent aware of it he shorted the fk out of it on its phase 3 being a bomb, said he would get a sex change if he was wrong. Went back and forth with this dude on twitter who held literally $70m in stock of the company and created a discord army of regards on his side who all went long. Shkreli made atleast a high 6 figs on the short when the phase 3 was a dud, and the other side got rekt

That said, he talks 'investing' alot more than trading. And when he talks investing he just does shallow dives on the largest stocks out there. Theres information to be learned from this, but its absolutely a huge waste of time to try to be some buy and hold investor of individual names - especially the ones everyone already knows.

That's cool.

I followed him intensely during his Pharma Bro days (starting out as WTF is this Freak? --> Wow, I'm actually learning life lessons....).

This guy sucks! Pretty shitty call there 😀 Looks like my 25% came in. Early in the week I dumped half of my April butterflies because we were in the middle and I was afraid we would rally out the top. Actually we crashed outside the botttom. I used about 2/3's for more downside and 1/3 for more upside. Unfortunately I capped the downside by buying spreads rather than outrights. We are at the bottom of the spreads now. I may or may not butterfly or condor them off. But either way I am out of downside. Then again my April butterflies which are at credit are strongly bullish right now in case we snap back and the May spreads I rolled into can be turned into very positive credit butterflies or condors. If we do continue to sell off I will likely condor off my put spreads and just be content that I don't have anymore downside protection. Still perpetually bullish because that is all it has ever been over my lifetime. This seems overdone and one headline will create a massive snapback. Short term pain = long term gain.

Load up on Nvidia and Palantir

Things might go lower yet! I'm eyeing a $400 VOO where I may start piling in a bunch of cash from my gambling winnings. The $400 level is an arbitrary level that I see. Not sure if it will get that low, but I wouldn't be terribly surprised if it did happen. I've been investing 2,500 / (VOO / 400) into VOO every month. If it sinks below $400 all the cash might go into it. The only downside is that it might go even lower than $400 and I won't get the best return. Other possibility is that it recovers before $400 is hit or doesn't stay below $400 long enough for me to buy it at the price that I want.

It would really suck if VOO ends up performing like the Japan index that sucked for over two decades. That would be sad. I've heard rumors that the tariffs could be costly to everyone, but maybe they work out in the end. Hopefully life doesn't get too rough for people out there. Time will tell.

Idk, bear markets usually begin as a slow painful decline and, if there will be panic, the panic will come later, let's say when something considered bad, like some major player going busto etc. In this case I'm open to the possibility of things being like COVID, maybe we will have a few weeks more of panic selling and then someone will do something that will reverse this mess.

I like panics way more btw (as a buyer), you can make quite a bit of money relatively quick out of them assuming the world doesn't end.