2025 Trading Thread

We were deep in the throes of a world wide Covid recovery and people were pissed and ultimately the perceived deficiencies of the economy lead to Trump getting elected.

So it wasn't really ignored, you are just incapable of thinking about complex things with a few moving parts

You just know things are **** when people are trotting out the 5 year though, thanks for the laugh

I suspect we have more to go, and unlike COVID, I'm not expecting a money printing quick bailout.

That being said, what's on people's short list of buys

This chart is out of date and disingenuously doesn't include the massive two-day drop. Dow closed at 38,400 on Friday, not 42,200 like on the chart

Even COVID saw a 35% decline in the S&P 500 before the reaction, if I remember correctly, so I think it's too early to do anything.

BTD!

I think I'm waiting for tuesday afternoon/wednesday but could be a mistake

yeah im dabting on getting in on VOO here but a lot if people saying we have 2-3 months more of this.

i was looking at VOO top 500 etf

Aapple
Microsoft
nvidia

want to add some more to look at

I though they were high one year ago .
I did not change my mind yet shrug .

What's your exit point on PLTR? I have 2,000 shares, which have grown to an uncomfortable portion of my portfolio. Yet, the very reason I bought the stock (high 30's) is because everything the PayPal mafia touches does turn to Gold, whether there is objective merit or not. Sell most of it if it goes back to 110-120 range at some point though? Was kicking myself for not selling at least 1,000 of the shares then.

sell when they introduce a new tolkien arm to their business. that's the sign of the top

alright loaded up on SQQQ shorts, so you know we hit bottom now

And there it is!

It’s not a headline , it’s the primary cause that changes it’s mind by backing down …
I guess Monday wasn’t a fake news after all .

Damn. At least we know you aren't an insider trader.

4-6-2025

What are the chances trump is engaging in massive premeditated market manipulation with these seemingly indecisive tariff announcements?

Lol...

All policy... and I mean ALL POLICY... manipulates the market.

Of course, but most policy is for the purpose of policy and the insiders just take advantage because they can. I guess I should rephrase the question as: what are the chances these tariff announcement shenanigans are for the sole purpose of market manipulation, everything else is just smoke and mirrors, and no one in the administration gives a single **** about the trade imbalances or whatever the rationale is?

We can just take trump at face value. He likes tariffs. He’s been consistent with this for 30-40 years.

The rest is just a bunch of noise.

Giga brained negotiation tactic? Nope
Attempt to lower rates to refinance debt? No
Blatant market manipulation? I mean yeah but that isn’t the intent.

Trump wants to implement tariffs and had a disastrous roll out and is now conceding, while getting literally nothing in return, to placate the bond market.

It’s as simple and transparent as that

A bond guy who I respect tried to say it was anchoring, which is a negotiation tactic I’m familiar with. I used it while negotiating software contracts with the DoD. The problem is if I say I want this amount, and then come back with a lower number before negotiations begin then I’ve effectively moved the anchor and blown up the negotiation tactic before it can be used, which is exactly what happened here.

Jesus... the lack of understanding is defining.
I expect a bit more from a mod.
That explanation is like someone that watches broadcast infotainment shows on the business channel and regurgitates it as gospel... including the personal assessments of DjT as a strategist.

It will all become clear to the simpletons soon enough, and we'll have the posts as scoreboard.

What am I misunderstanding?

All I did was take Trumps words at face value

We're heading towards a recession coupled with rising inflation. Your guy is a drooling idiot.

You're point about being one headline away from a massive snapback insinuates that this was just a shakeout and normal correction on our way higher. And while one headline did snap us back pretty good, it was a headline about a total shift in policy. Not exactly the same thing. And we're still closer to the latest low than the liberation day (puke) high.

you dont sell generational investments. you can take profits along the way and arbitrage entry and exit points, but just hold for 'Long term'...