N1H- The Return(Minus Butthole Pleasures)
Hey,
Got my computer back set up and wanting to log for a while now.
Anyways, not logging has made me v lazy and unorganized. My diet is also trash and I look like I don't even lift no more.
I'm also selling most of my sneakers to start a poker bankroll. I haven't played in over 3 years, but looks like nothing has changed, lol. They also open up a poker room nearby and I'm sure the players still suck.
My childhood buddy keeps inviting me to his lame home games. I keep making excuse not to go. By the looks of it, its some bs $20 game, that lasts 6+ hours lolol.
Anal girl is with some 10'' arm loser. They honestly look like brother and sister, it's disgusting lol.
Currently squat and DL only. I tore something in my shoulder and haven't bench since April 10.
My PRs:
Bench: 265
Squat: 390
DL: 490
I tore my shoulder the week of maxing out. Would have attempted something like:
Bench: 275
Squat: 405
DL: 505
Currently doing whatever. Need shoulder to heal but been very slow.
See you soon. Brewing that coffee soon.
Stop betting.
My or the other day.
Form not bad.
Bench was great until I went for a single. Time to change it up. I’ll be running a 16 week program from Calgary barbell. Met a nice dude the other day and he told me about it. He is legit, pure power lifter.
Got hem
Bench was great until I went for a single. Time to change it up. I’ll be running a 16 week program from Calgary barbell. Met a nice dude the other day and he told me about it. He is legit, pure power lifter.
This is a good program. Harder sessions and more competition lifting, but well designed. The creator is also definitely a real natty. You're in good hands, homie. We're going to see some gains and some prs in this log in a few months.
Da Bears. And a new lifting program? Love it.
Ya we legit. Super Bowl in 2-3 years.
Cashed out on a 12-leg parlay. Daniel’s got injured and panicked cashed out. Maybe -ev move but never doubt the red rocket.
Is -ev to cash out anytime?
but in general it's a terrible idea to cashout early
this here is an example of the early cashout
at the time of this screenshot, to live bet PIT +3 would have been around -2000
but as you can see, they gave me a terrible payout
betting NYJ ml then would have paid around +800
cashing out there leaves $2,160.97 of potential profit on the table
assuming this was life changing money for me and I wanted to hedge and I wasn't limited (you assuredly are not limited) i could then have instead of taking cashout, instead taken the 2,160.97 I would have been sacrificing and bet Jets ML at +800
in that case i would have been paid over 17k profit on a win
so by taking the early cashout in that spot, i'm basically giving up a ton of ev - had i simply just "accepted the cashout" indirectly by betting the forfeited amount on the other side then i still lock in the risk free money but now make even more monies when my original bet loses (which is the fear we had and why we wanted the early cashout in the first place)
and, there was still a world where Jets won that game but my PIT +3 still cashed so even more upside
you probably didn't have a clear path to hedging out because you instead bet like an rtard with your stupid parlays combining a half dozen -ev wagers into one for a big -ev payout
this
you're going to lose all you money eventually - stop it
So no more parlay?
It’s better to beg bigger on money line??
I parlay bc it’s pretty much guarantee. Take easy -500+ bets and combine.
U jnow damn Roger’s is throwing for 150+ and a TD easily.
Same with Russ.
Ez money
no no no no no
i bet that because it was +2.5 everywhere else, the places where i could get an alt line of +3 were all -120 or worse
if i wanted to, i could have bet -3 at +115 elsewhere for an arb
that's why i bet that, not because of "steelers are underrated, playing at home, and rodgers is a fraud"
you have shown zero desire nor motivation to learn how to bet profitably, you're just going off narratives
you're going to lose money no matter what path you choose
if you simply looked at what lines on fanduel you could arb at circa and just bet the side on fanduel you'd make money - but instead you're doing incredibly stupid stuff
Haha I’m a feel player. There’s more to just math based betting. Watch me bet bears ML vs lions and Vikings. They will be under dogs, but I know my division and we always give them hell.
Don’t care, the circa app is tilting af. FanDuel app is way better and more bonuses given out to make up for the better lines.
All I get is a large pizza from crappy rosatis on circa lol
if circa has -130 bears and +120 someone else
and on fanduel it is -115/-115 bears vs someone else
then only betting the -115 on fanduel that is -130 on circa will be very profitable for you
you won't find this with nfl moneylines, but you will find it on things like passing yard props, 1st quarter totals, etc
I will try on circa too tonight, but it is very tilting, their app. It’s likes they still living in 2002 or something. The layout is weird af too.
I bet even with better lines, the pay out on FD will be more bc of the profit boost they offer me every other day lol.
Last night I saw bears -100 and Washington -120 for next weeks game.
Bears are favored now and Washington is +
More like Confused About Bet Stuff
How's that coffee grind going? Haven't read any rants about dumb millenium coworkers for a while.
How's that coffee grind going? Haven't read any rants about dumb millenium coworkers for a while.
Right now not bad. We got good team. The sucky people left and we got the good core workers. Some are still lazy, but I rat them out to my manager and next day they feel salty and listen to me.
I MAKE THE CALLS
Also my parlay got ruined bc Flowers is injured…
There should be a rule for injuries. It’s just not fair for a parlay to go down bc of injury…
Imagine if you knew the rules of the bet you were making. Like if they typed up a huge list of how the events are considered either wins or losses, and when they are action.
Wish this innovation had come along at some point in my 15y betting career where I made millions of dollars.
While you can make money on feel betting, it will never be a substantial amount of money. And there needs to be some quantifiable component. One notable prop I made some decent money (at the time) with this approach was when Lance Armstrong gave a "goal time" for his first marathon post retirement, and was running with an entire team of pacers. His time was almost comically slow (Think the line was 3:12 or smth) and he stated he wanted to do a 3hr marathon. He obviously beat his goal time, since he had like 4 dudes pacing and wind breaking for him. I was also aware that he had engaged in competitive running previously, tho I'd bet anyone at his level of cycling could beat 3 hours in that setup provided they gave half a ****.
The main problem you'll have with "feel betting" is that you don't actually know anything about the sports in question and smarter people have almost always quantified the probability of the events and bet money into these markets. Granted some markets are open to innovation and better analytical approaches. Futures were like this in previous times where lines were generated without consideration for tie breakers. Crockpot did a bunch of work in this area and I did some as well (enjoy calcing all the permutations for tie breakers in the NFL, including the actual coin flip). MLB TTs were an area where people were using kinda meh approximations that worked great for the time (Poisson), but I basically ended that game when I sat down and did an actual Monte Carlo sim. (A non-Markov chain approach because that is ****ing dumb since it literally is path dependent.)
If any of that is rather confusing for you, you probably aren't in a position to be placing bets that aren't on errant lines or are notably soft. (Maybe 2nd division women's handball is your new sport?) Not to mention I have not seriously bet in years and I'm sure things have meaningfully changed strategically where a lot of assumptions I made previously aren't accurate. One thing I can definitely think of is that the approximations of 5i lines as being entirely starter dependent has completely changed from 2019 (last full MLB season I bet).
but in general it's a terrible idea to cashout early
this here is an example of the early cashout
at the time of this screenshot, to live bet PIT +3 would have been around -2000
but as you can see, they gave me a terrible payout
betting NYJ ml then would have paid around +800
cashing out there leaves $2,160.97 of potential profit on the table
assuming this was life changing money for me and I wanted to hedge and I wasn't limited (you assuredly are not limited) i could then have instead of taking cas
They were winning and a site offered u +3?
Why?
Bro,
You can't even read. Like... literally get a remedial HS education.
When I make fun of Soulbro talking about economics despite his own country having elected a govt with the majority party founded by a card carrying Nazi member, it isn't because I think the economy is magically better with these policies for myself. It is because for members of the underclass (which you are), who are functionally illiterate, isolationist policies do benefit the very bottom wage workers. You ever consider getting out of that group?
Lol I don’t even know what you’re talking about
I don’t even read your posts bc u write a book with fancy play syndrome words
Basically I see your username and I grunch
U also sound like the yuppies who order a latte in store, then once the barista rings you up at the register, u ask “where’s my drink?”
Uh do u not see the other 20+ customers in the store waiting for their drink?
Yes we have people like this at my store bc they haven’t worked a day in their lives lol
