"The Pen:" Live NLHE Chat Thread

Totally unrelated Slim, but I just bought a ticket to my once-every-three-years-venture-out-of-the-house-to-see-a-musical-act for this March.

GDamienJuradoanyone?bighitatkidsbirthdaypartiesI'msureG

Squid casually dropping wisdom.

#justanotherfriday

I got demolished 2 sessions ago. Instead of being a coward and accepting my loss. We flipped after the game for an hour. I recovered 400/500 big blinds I had lost.

Super pro confirmed

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As of last night, my 2025 hourly at 1-2 NL is $135.

squid, i was playing bj last night

have you ever had a dealer start talking about card counters unsolicited to you and all the ways they catch them and how they catch them all the time

it was weird, i was up about 1.5k playing $25 min with pretty small spreads up to 100 and had been ratholing chips so it looked like i was down a little and was fortunate to have people betting 300 a hand which drew the attention away from me

but then the others leave, it's just me, this dealer just starts randomly talking to me and it almost feels like he's trying to "distract me" because it's super forced as i'm giving my prime autistic min response but he just keeps going but i don't mind because i can count and carry on conversations at this point so i feel like it's actually good image wise so go along with it

he then starts talking about card counters and how they catch them and everything

i couldn't tell if it were just a coincidence or if were being tested

he then does his first shuffle and cuts the deck about 3.5 decks deep when everyone else did 1.5

at this point i know i should leave, but figure it's prob better to play at least part of the shoe instead of getting up right away

table fills so my exposure is minimal, bring in new dealer so i play it out, he then cuts 1.5

so no clue if i'm being paranoid or not, but definitely think that was possibly the first "heat" i've received

will not play bj again at that place anytime soon (but there's plenty of places around here)

Wasn't that dude on SubPop? I don't really remember him though

Stream of thought:

RR - Def a weird spot with getting worse than the 1/2 shoe especially when the house cut is 1.5. You did the right thing sticking around and not running out the door. In that situation I'd prolly eat a little variance and fire a larger bet off the top and do a bit of ranging that has zero to do with the count.

Dealers as a rule have exactly nothing to do with game protection and dealing with counters. Its interesting that you got the 1/2 shoe right as he was talking about counting. I have had countless dealers and pit crew talk to me about counting and catching counters over the years and it was largely them passing time and showing off how in the know they are.

That being said:
What happened before all of this went down?
-did the phone ring?
-did the pit come in and turn their back to you while talking to the dealer.
-did the pit make a phone call?
-did the pit suddenly dissapear?
-Was there a sudden flurry of excitement?
-any thing suspect like announcing cheques play when you decided to fire?

Had you played multiple shoes with this dealer? If so was the pen close to 1.5 prior to the 1/2 shoe

For now I would avoid that shift. The good news is shifts suck ass at comms. I have been absolutely heated up on 1 shift and able to avoid it and get 100% down with other shifts.

Solo shoe plays require moving around to max profit and minimize exposure. Ex planting yourself and grinding through multiple negative shoes and flatbetting now suddenly it goes positive now u r blasting looks shadey. Whereas walking by a table right as the first hand gets dealt doing a quick scan if slightly pos count lurk a bit, not SWEAT the table and get another round. If the count is modestly positive you can fire a middling bet while being prepared to press if the count goes up or if it comes crashing back down u r mobile and can leave. Tons o little tricks.

The most important thing is you have to figure out what they want and give it to them w/o costing too much cover $ b4 they figger you out. MOST COUNTERS SUCK AT THIS. Which is y they get nuked. Figuring out cover packages and how much they cost and implementing them is paramount to success.

Simply going in, betting the min, doing +1 -1 and firing accordingly will not make u $ in the long run. Just like in poker waiting for KK and AA will not make u $

thanks, glad to hear i was correct not to bail - a bunch of bj youtubers which you told me are clowns earlier always say "once they start cutting shallower just leave" and that always felt dumb - like they are clearly unsure at this point - if they knew for a fact they'd have already backed you off - why would you make their jobs easy and confirm for them with the "let's see if he still plays when we don't cut as deep" test etc

the pit boss was sometimes walking over and watching me a bit

didn't see/hear any phone calls

at no point did the boss talk to the dealer in my presence

pit boss switched shifts (which i loved because that makes the ratholing all the easier to do) and she paid me zero attention so i was thinking other guy was just operating on a hunch only

dealer came at beginning of a shoe and dealt it rather silently and only towards the end started talking

these were 8 deck shoes so was loving life at 1.5 pen

he did make a point of mentioning they work for tips so it's possible he was just trying to say "hey buddy you pay me i look the other way" idk

so that was the only deck he shuffled before they brought in a new guy who dealt last few hands and he went back to the 1.5

played another half shoe just flat betting the min and then bailed once it got somewhat negative

noticed there was another bank of blackjack operated by a different team so after making some sports bets went over there and had zero heat figuring if they were onto me they'd already have it via surveillance analyzing it tomorrow so figured i'd just try to squeeze out a little more before the shoulder tap comes next time i arrive - which won't be for a while

interesting on wonging in, i've done that online with stupendously good results but assumed it'd be way more obvious if i walked up and watched a few hands get dealt and then sat down but in hindsight you see that a lot with people talking about "want to see if the table is hot or not first" mentality so i will try to incorporate that a little

Yeah, that was my first thought too. Cinderella story for sure.

Here he is in his debut game. They played right after the local minor league team, but not many folks stayed around to watch.

So what's a decent save percentage? Seemed to me like he did pretty well.

save percentage is really hard to use as a good metric because the quality of shots varies so dramatically

ie most shots are going to be <10% chance but there's tons of situations where there's really nothing he can do because he's screened, there's a rebound, result of a great passing play leaving net open, or just some random bounce etc

in general in the NHL

>92% best in the league
>91% very good
>90% league average
>89% backup in danger of losing job
<89% somehow still in the league, has dozens of articles about how much he sucks each week

so the margin is super slim and highly luck dependent - it's not uncommon for a goalie to have a string of 92% 93% and 92% and then the next year at 87% and loses his starting job

but... all you need to know is he faced 53 shots, which is an absurdly high number, most nhl games average around 30ish per team over 60 minutes and it would track that a team which didn't have a goalie would be pretty bad defensively

so he was absolutely thrown into the fire and managed to do a very good job (you can be assured that at least half those goals there was nothing even an nhl goalie could have done)

this is precisely why what we tend to care more about are the amount of saves rather than the save percentage because that gives a better layout of what he faced and how well he performed, 47 saves is an insanely good game and if there isn't a local newspaper report on the local 38 year old who only recently took up the sport making 47 saves on his college debut that's a travesty

This was Tom Goldstein in the Chairman game. He usually lost big in the game but when he won he would do flips until he lost it all typically. Though of course he won some of thos times.

M'f'er I used that phrase on a certain excellent poker podcast back in the day.

I cant stress this enough. Presentation is everything. When I am playing A+ blackjack I am 100% aware of what is happening in the pit in terms of when tables are getting ready to shuffle. I can drift by one right as the first round is coming out. I can scan it in under a second and grab the count I will also be aware of who will be likely hitting. I can now act completely disinterested and with my peripheral see when someone signals hit and catch that card. This is obviously very different than walking right up the 3rd base and standing behind it and staring at every card that comes out as if your life depended on it.

If I were you I would have sports betting tix piled up near my chips and talk about your gamblin and let them fiigure out you have a problem with your sports betting. You can milk the sheeyit out of that.

This is all spoken in character. Your character is losing gambler rickroll. You happily discuss your sports betting with the pit and some fuct zany system. Show him different sizes of sports wagers and the stupid reasons y you vary the size. Now pivot to blackjack. Blackjack is just like sportsbetting. People that bet same are total fish. U got to move your bet around and nail em when it gets hot yada yada yada. this is getting down with the game. U are pals with the pit. U r gamblin hard in other areas that they are comfy with, and you let them figure out your 21 strat.

Yeah, I remember discussing my problems with it in a certain ridic 1/1 home game during that era as well.

AlzheimerProblemDeluxe

thanks for this advice, i always have piles of tickets on me at the casino anyway so this will be a good path

also, i generally wear a blazer in real life so often am wearing one at the casinos as well, it's especially helpful with the pockets always being upright so great for having large wads of cash and tickets that are easily accessible and nice side pockets that are very easy to discreetly drop greenies into whenever nobody is paying any attention to me

i know people treat me very differently when i'm wearing a blazer - so was wondering if it'd be a positive at the tables or not

Must be that SEC speed!

It happened to a friend of mine too, I believe at Worcester Polytech. He was likely good enough to play in whatever league WPI played in but had chosen not to.

Hockey is weird. I can't think of any other sport where that happens. Not since the 12th man at Texas A&M (who didn't get in the game).

I’ll do my best to not win millions and fail to pay taxes.

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squid, having never gotten the shoulder tap once in about 150 hours (spread out over 2 dozen places most ever played anywhere was 40 hours over 5 days in wichita) where i only made about 8k and usually going to the min tables unless they had 6:5 or worse pen in which case i'd play the $25 min

i try to talk about trying to learn basic strategy but also have the card with me as if i don't know it and try to have conversations with other players (not dealers if possible because then it becomes a "why aren't you tipping me enough" pity party) and let them know "i'm here for poker but y'all don't got any" and even force myself to do things like cheer and emote when every autistic bone in my body just wants to sit there silently and judge everyone 😀

i think the "being on a road trip visiting friends" may hurt me but they see my Maine ID anyway so probably better to address it than to just hide it verbally idk

do you think it's

A) i'm not betting big enough to draw attention
B) i'm not betting long enough to draw attention
C) i'm doing something right
D) i'm just sun running in terms of not getting caught
E) combo of A, B, & D

btw if this is getting annoying don't feel obligated to answer 😀 i'm still 99% focused on sportsbetting and taking it easy dipping my toes into this when i see a good spot and will be sure to annoy the hell out of you in person someday soon where it's more efficient to talk about it anyway

looking online, i'm constantly finding references to people getting booted after 20 min etc - idk if it's because they are in griffin and i'm not or they were just idiots

Well hope you can find a game where you can win millions - and I'm sure you are smart enough to pay taxes 😀. That is the part of this whole saga that really surprises me. Tom is really really smart and hard to believe he would think he could get away with serious tax fraud since he has been in the non-poker public eye as an attorney for many years.

Tks, mang. Maybe I'll write something up and see if the local paper is interested.

That's a good point. This happens at Notre Dame for football, and the guy gets a movie made about him. Happens in hockey and everyone is like "that reminds me of another guy with a similar experience." Seems to be almost entirely goalies too, which I guess makes sense. It's a tough job for sure, but it doesn't seem like it requires the speed, stamina, and teamwork awareness of constant training like other positions would. Mostly you just get in there and do your job.

Rickroll,

I have had a number of people want to use the basic card as a prop. My resopnse is: How many degens do you see in a casino doing this? Answer ZERO. This is a silly cheap attempt at getting down imo and will buy you nothing and has the potential to draw heat cuz its so out there. This is such a non degen move. Degens are confidently incorrect

You may be able to make real money with no act at all, I think its highly unlikely based on my experiences. If your goal is to log real hours and make real $ you have to approach this with a different mindset. If your goal is to have some laughs, fire some bets off, and generate a little EV. I would limit myself to big events and holidays. You can fire some decent size bets and scoot under the radar (most of the time) and have some fun running around various casinos.

There is a reason y 99% of people who try to be pro gamboolers fail. It is damn hard work putting every piece of the puzzle together. AND MY WHOLE POINT IS ACT IS EQUALLY IMPORTANT TO +1 -1 if you want to make a living at 21. Beat the dealer was published in 1962 and blackjack being beatable aint no secret. You have to do something to get down.

For what its worth when I am in an area I am NEVER "visiting friends". Its lame. Why are you not with them right now, where are they etc?

ex - Ugh you know Im from maine right? Family drama, and it just wont end. You know how that is. Im stuck out here for who knows how long, every one is at eachother and I just need to get away. I want to escape that nonsense and just shut my brain off. Hey can you get cocktails I need a vodka tonic.

This allows you to be in the casino for an undisclosed amt of time at virtually any time. They will most likely never bring up the y are you here again. It makes sense and there is a reason u r gamboolin alone. You are blowing off steam. And you are showing signs of needing booze as a coping mechanism.

Update - the article cited today in the Tom Goldstein thread in NVG shows just how far off the rails he got in the last few years. Sounds like tax fraud is the tip of the iceberg.

amazing squid ty, hit up the rez this morning to fire away some sb wagers and played a bit of bj today making $375 in the single shoe i played before i had to come back and help my buddy watch one kid as he took the other to a birthday party (he's very upset this kid has a friend who's parents do the birthday party on the superbowl each year)

it worked wonders, the pit boss came over and asked me who i was one and it was great, talked about my crazy crosssports wagers (which look absurdly degen to an outsider so they got a big laugh at the table because i was being such a donkey)

it was the first time the pit boss was really bro-ing out with me

also helped that shoe was basically +1.5 tc for entire second half (was glorious I was getting 20s like every hand and my neigbors getting low cards to keep the count nicely positive overall) so although i was betting a lot more than when it started, it was pretty much a flat level and i did mix it up a bit randomly moving it up or down as well

thank you so much, i get it so much better now, especially seeing the night and day difference when put to practice

in other news, those huge edge cross sport wagers went horribly earlier today

need jalen hurts to have o32.5 pass attempts and goedert to have o5.5 rec now - not drawing dead on either but the opposing sides both did far better than expected

Link?

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