2/5 TPTK facing check raise vs aggressive villain
2/5, villain seems to be skilled aggressive player, willing to get in a lot of flops. Effective stack is $700
Hero opens AdJc to $15 on the button, villain calls in BB
Flop ($30): Js Th 7d
Villain checks, hero bets $20, villain raises to $85
Hero? If calling, what's the plan when he continues to fire (probably all) turn and probably many river cards?
Against a range of KQ, JT, 77, 89s, and maybe some 88/99 we have around 40% equity
Let me ask you this: If we had opened JJ when folded to OTB and BB called and it went HU to a 30$ pot and the flop came 6-5-2r and he checks...are you checking back so as not to get x/raised? Yea I know its not exactly apples to apples comparison but he called out of the BB, his range is likely 50-60% of ATC.
I mean I don't hate a check back with AJo on a J-T-7 but you have to have a mixed strategy here between some check backs, some small sizing and some large sizing cbets. People aren't thinkin
First, what are the stack depths? Second, what are our reads on V?
Your example is different in that we don't block top pair or top 2, and the ranks of the cards on board are more likely to connect with hands the BB would be more likely to fold pre-flop. When V defends his BB against a pre-flop open, he should have much less 22, 43, 62, and 52 on a board of 652 than how much 77, 98, J7, and T7 he'll have on a board of JT7.
Again, I said we COULD c-bet the flop. It's not terrible. But IF we c-bet, big, and get x/r'd, big, we have to think about folding. Even if V is bluffing occasionally, it's okay to fold. We shouldn't be calling 100% with TPTK in bad spots where we could have much stronger hands, but so could our opponent.
This board is going to get check-raised a lot. BB has loads of value hands including things like T7s, 98o and JTo; loads of high-equity bluffs like Q9s or pair-plus-draws; and he might just play the board with complete air too knowing he can put you under pressure.
This is a hand which is often good, has to be somewhat careful that there are loads of bad turn cards, but ultimately probably is going to be very unhappy playing for stacks. Betting is OK when you get folds and calls, but you can predict facing a lot of check-raises on this board and a skilled player as per the title is going to check-raise a hell of a lot. You can do a lot of checking.
I agree with everyone who said check back flop. There a lot of bad turns for us that will either kill our hand or make it very difficult to continue. There's no use pumping the pot with a marginal strength hand relative to the board.
Let me ask you this: If we had opened JJ when folded to OTB and BB called and it went HU to a 30$ pot and the flop came 6-5-2r and he checks...are you checking back so as not to get x/raised? Yea I know its not exactly apples to apples comparison but he called out of the BB, his range is likely 50-60% of ATC.
I mean I don't hate a check back with AJo on a J-T-7 but you have to have a mixed strategy here between some check backs, some small sizing and some large sizing cbets. People aren't thinkin
I do have a mixed strategy.
I'm checking more value vs good regs and betting more value vs fish.
And I think checking back JJ and betting TT and 77 is plenty enough to balance the sets.
Rngs are over rated.
meh. Im calibrated for my game I guess. I have a reg asian kid that x/raises 66, 67o/s, all P+GS, and some total air here .. yea I dont want to play for stacks this deep but I'm barely ever folding AJ, and never folding AJs with BDFD.
Yeah if you want to fold all the AJo and continue AJs that seems fine.
But like I said I won't ever have to face that decision vs aggro regs w/ this hand.
And even if I told them this is exactly what I was doing, good luck trying to exploit me.
But have fun trying to mix everything everywhere and think you're doing it properly and getting some type of edge on your opponents.
