Speech play, donk overbet river, exposed card on river, nut straight vs rivered 3 flush
Game is 5/5/25, time rake only. 5 handed.
Villain is a very loose recreational player that plays 4-5 days per weak. Villain is a business owner with a very high disposable income. Bluffy, punty, binky.
Hand history: several sessions ago I showed a bluff where I raised to 3.2k after Villain donked on a and straight flush completing turn for 800 into 1,000. Villain snap folds. Hero shows him AsQh for A high with the nut flush draw and blocker. Hero also has tons of hours with villain, but this one sticks out as a relevant meta hand.
5 handed. 4.2k effective. First to act in CO raises to 65 with AhQs. Fold, villain in SB raises to 200, folds to hero, call.
Flop: 435 KsTc3c, v bets 175. Hero calls
Turn $785 KsTc3cJh, v checks, hero bets 400. I meant to go 3/4 pot but miscalculated pot. V calls.
River $1,585 KsTc3cJh8c, villain now donk leads for $2.2k. Hero tanks. Hero asks villain what he wants me to do. Villain at first looks comfortable. Villain starts to engage in conversation comfortably. Villain says he will show me one card for $100. He starts to turn over his hand, but doesn't expose it to me yet. It is evident that he wants to expose the card on the bottom which is face down, as he can expose it and hide the other card behind it.
I tell him fine I will pay you $100, but I want to see the card on the top. Villain says fine, but proceeds to show me the card on the bottom anyways which is obviously the Ac. I then tell Villain that isn't what I agreed to, I wanted to see the other card. He seems to play it off as a miscommunication. I then ask him what the other card is. He says I don't know, probably a queen though. I ask him what suit. He says I don't know. I tell him there are only 4 suits in the deck. At this point he is looking nervous. I think the speech play, him exposing the wrong card, and not having good answers prepared for what the other card is may worry him that he has given away too much information.
I also ask, if I fold, will you show. He says yes. But villain routinely lies comfortably. Villain is capable of big bluffs, but I can't recall seeing a big donk overbet bluff from villain before. They are usually with the betting lead, in position, or as a check raise. The dollar amount of the bet is not too big for villain, he has bluffed for significantly more. As a size of the pot it is obviously very big.
Hero?
I think hed show the bluff, because you did previously. Telling you the truth but leaving you wondering tracks for him actually having it.
I agree on the overbet thing
Obviously I think you made a good fold.
Knowing he has the Ac, and if he actually has a Q, then we'd be calling to chop 2/3 of the time and lose 1/3 of the time. The rest of his range is either AXcc, or AcXx, and I think his line, his exposing the Ac, and his speech play are more heavily weighted towards value than bluffs.
No doubt he would have shown a bluff, having already showed you the Ac. Not showing a bluff would defeat the purpose. Mucking his cards face down when you made a good fold is in alignment. He wants you to wonder if you made a good fold, not know you made a good fold.
You can of course run some sims and see what a solver would do here. But to me, this all really comes down to logic and psychology.
When he shows you the Ac, his range becomes entirely polarized to nut flushes and bluffs (putting AQo into the bluff category). His donk over-bet is polarizing. Showing you the Ac reinforces the polarization.
But he's MUCH more likely to show you the Ac as a way to induce a call when he has it, than to show you the Ac to induce a fold when he doesn't. He'd want to reinforce the polarized nature of his over-bet when he wants you to call, by making you think he might be bluffing. He wouldn't want to do that if he actually was bluffing.
