T8dd 1/3 with $6 straddle river bluff raise
So villain is loose pre, limps etc but other than that i dont really know much. We did play a hand a few sess ago where he donked turn when i had KK on a Q high board where he made a straight then river came a flush completing card and he x to me so i vb thinking he had Q - he tank called. And he’s caught me bluffing smal before.
i do think he won’t 3b his straddle here with a trash hand - most like top 15% or whatever. 99+, AQ+
so i raise to $20 on button, he raises to 45 on straddle, i call. We are $900 effective.
FLOP Q23hh/d $94
xx
TURN 4d $94
v bets $40, hero calls
RIVER 6x
villain bets $60, hero raises to $180
thoughts?
No other replies? Guess i was wrong in thinking it was a good bluff. Figured i have all 55, A5s, 45s, 65s,some 75s. Is it just button clicking?
while you do have A5 given your range assessment of villain, they have a ton of Ax which would discount your Ax combos. Even if they have a superficial understanding of combinatorics this isnt a difficult leap of logic to realize unless the guy is just a super casual rec.
that said im not sure what villain is representing so if they're showdown monkey'ish i avoid the bluff otherwise I might size up on the river to get them to fold out their PP under the Q.
How likely are they to hero you with pairs < Q though?
Im suggesting sizing up because in my experience, gen population tends to overcall in these spots at this level with hands they should be instamucking and in the cases where you did bink a straight or a set or some other value hand, how much would you be raising? I'd probably be sizing just a little higher with my value hands and while it doesnt have to be a 1:1 of i bet x with value so i also bet 'x' with bluffs but just observation/empirical evidence, ive been experimenting with sizing on my bluffs vs value against the avg 1/3 field opponent and Im finding i need to size up a little more. this also does mean the times you get hero'd and show you have a bit of a leverage as villain now has opportunity to level themselves and call your larger sized value bets when you do have the goods etc etc.
Some other points:
I dont think its a terrible bluff, villain should be c'betting here a fair amount as i doubt they're going to get tricky with hands like AQ/KK and therefore more likely this line is now 99-JJ and maybe AA slowplaying the flop.
their river bet is insanely small further polarizing their range on the river
Unless they are the type that just bets increidbly small all the time, the 33% pot on river feels a little like a "see where im at" given description vs a "coax you into a call with 3rd pair vs their overpair/sets"
