2/5/10/20/60 2.1k eff top 2 on 2 tone board 3 ways, facing raise, bet, jam bad runout.
Villain is aggressive pro. One of the more capable pros in terms of bluffing. He ran a huge check raise bluff 4 ways on A66r with 54s, no bdfd, turned gutter with a 2, rivered 4, and got heroed by a reg who flatted pre in CO with AJo vs a LJ rec open. River bet was 1.2k ~75% pot which is a big bet for the game. He rebought after. Villain is somewhat prone to tilt.
Hero is a pro and has history of bluff catching villain to pick off some big bluffs but also has got owned by thin value a fair amount.
2/5/10/20/60 2.1k effective. 60 straddle not usually on. No rake, pay for time. Hero in 10 straddle 180 with AcJs, main Villain flats 180 in 20 straddle, rec in 60 flats too.
Flop 547 AdJh5h, hero 100, v r300, rec folds, hero calls.
Turn 1,147 AdJh5h9h, hero x, v 400, hero calls
River 1,947 AdJh5h9h8d, hero x, v all in for ~ 1.2k. Hero?
Some more relevant history and notes in v.
Pre I have seen v flat KQo in this sort of position, but also seen him 3b KQo. Also seen him sometimes flat, sometimes 3b suited connectors here. I would expect 55 is in range, not JJ. Maybe can have some AJo. Mainly 3b AQo and high suited aces.
I have seen more small size on turns from villain with bluffs and pot on turns with value, but turn is so dynamic and spr awkward.
My general observation has been that when villain has value, he usually goes very large on turns and rivers. When he has bluffs, it is like he wants to go a size that has some fold equity, but leaves him fold equity on the river also.
So you'd have re-raised his flop raise to 900 and if he jams back we fold?
Generally why I am curious about if he means he would come out raising 900$ or re-popping to 900$
No, if I were to 3b to $900, it would be with the intention of calling a jam (or getting it in on most turns).
When I flop the 6th nut combo with a 4:1 SPR in a blind-vs-blind-vs-blind single-raised pot, I'm looking to get stacks in whatever way I can.
Do you still get it in on the current turn if he just calls?
I would check range on this flop.
As played, its probably alot closer than what people make it out to be. If i think there’s a slight possibility that he plays A5 or A9 this way then im calling.
If he is tilting then there’s also a chance that he is overvaluing his hands especially if he thinks people will call him light.
It's literally horrible to call the turn then fold to a hp bet otr. If we would of had to do that I woulda folded on the turn (and also folded pre).
We have top two, why would we consider folding? The only hand that he could have in his range as played is bottom set. That leaves like over 50 combos of possible hands with only a few of them that beat us. I would fist bump jump and and beat him to the pot if he jams and in my head I would thank him, but that's just me.
It's literally horrible to call the turn then fold to a hp bet otr. If we would of had to do that I woulda folded on the turn (and also folded pre).
We have top two, why would we consider folding? The only hand that he could have in his range as played is bottom set. That leaves like over 50 combos of possible hands with only a few of them that beat us. I would fist bump jump and and beat him to the pot if he jams and in my
Honestly I am not good enough to fold here if I raised 900 and he jammed on me there's not much your losing to other then a bad runout. I will admit though that I would not be good enough to fold here to any set or big draw implications on the turn much different but flop no way.
Grunch:
Interesting spot.
Would V typically raise flops with his flush draws? Would he raise more frequently when we c-bet less than 20% pot? If so, would he bet small on the turn when he makes his hand, or size up?
Also, does he raise flop with all his flush draws, or just the nut draws? How many AXs combos does he have that just flat call pre, if he's 3B'ing his big suited aces? It wouldn't seem to be very many. Maybe six combos of A2-A8hh, plus maybe AThh, assuming he flats with all of them.
If he flopped a set, would he only raise flop 3x, and continue to barrel on turn and river, when the flush draws come in? Would he only raise 3x with AXhh?
Would he flat call pre with A5? Just A5s, or would he ever get involved with A5o? Would he barrel off with A5 after we call flop and turn?
Would he get involved pre with a lot of AXo, perhaps thinking he can outplay hero post? If so, would he raise flop with AhXx?
The thing that strikes me about that 54 hand on A66 is that he had no showdown value, and no real draw on the flop, so starting a multi-street bluff may have seemed like his only shot to win the hand. Whereas if he was just on a naked flush draw here, he might not feel the need to start his bluff on the flop, because he might make his hand on the turn.
What also strikes me about it is that he continued to barrel when he picked up equity, and didn't give up when he picked up a sliver of showdown value, in a spot where it looked like he was likely to get called again. It makes me wonder if he would play a lot of A9/A8 combos this way. Maybe even J9dd.
If he had the nuts, wouldn't he bet bigger on turn?
Because we c-bet so small, and given that V is capable of running big bluffs and also capable of going thin with value, I think he might have enough AJ, AhXx, worse 2P, and some random airballs to flick in the call. Seems like we were committing to this hand when we called turn.
Spoiler
I call and he had QhTh. Overall I am fine with it. We definitely should not be snapping on river, we should really take some time to think through his range. We have to really consjder if v can value bet worse and is capable of bluffs. I think bluffs are plausible enough that I am okay with the call down. I think I could fold AK and AQ by the river even with a heart. Blocking the bluffs. AxTh is a good bluff catcher too. And I can have sets and flushes that are calls.
As far as the flop, I miscalculated flop as being 4 and change when it was 5 and change. I was going for quarter pot rounded down basically. But my sizing wasn't bad imo. I size down because we are multiway and I want villains to raise off against a small bet. I think the A high board will be understaffed when I check, although checking sometimes to check raise does seem like an option.
So if we bet 100 on the flop, we can bet 2/3 pot turn and jam river for 75% pot. Or we could pot turn and jam river for less, charging or pricing out the draws.
Bet -3betting the flop is an option, however against this particular v, I think bet-call works nice, because villain will probably over-barrel his bluffs on the turn rather than realize his equity. We can check jam a clean turn. If we bet 3bet the flop, all that continues are his high equity draws and very strong hands. The idea is to keep in his low equity draws like QdTd, KhQx, KxQh.
Another thing I should mention is that the rec was like 1.4k deep. All the more reason why we don't need to go huge on the flop.
I would check range on this flop.
As played, its probably alot closer than what people make it out to be. If i think there’s a slight possibility that he plays A5 or A9 this way then im calling.
If he is tilting then there’s also a chance that he is overvaluing his hands especially if he thinks people will call him light.
I am curious why range check flop?
My gut reaction is that you should be fine with the decision. Sounds like you two have some meta going on, and you're going to have to look this guy up light sometimes, knowing he's super-capable.
Maybe this is over-simplifying, but I wonder if all of this just comes down to how often you think he's flat calling rather than 3B'ing pre with his better suited aces, and how often you think he's raising your flop c-bet with a flush draw that isn't to the nuts, or at least a decent combo-draw.
If he's flatting more often, rather than 3B'ing, to keep the rec in, and raising a lot of his flush draws on the flop, I'd think that makes it an easier fold, because he'll have so many more flushes on the turn, or at least a straight by the river.
Knowing the reveal, I'd be curious to know his rationale for raising flop with the rec still to act. Was it to fold out the rec's better flush draws?
Also, if we believe flatting the flop raise to let him barrel is better than 3B'ing, aren't we committing to call off when some of those draws come in on the turn, or are there some turns we're folding when he barrels? If we're being logically consistent, it would seem like we'd need to call him down on most run-outs that aren't "all his bluffs got there".
Interesting that you mention QdTd as a bluff combo, when the 8d on the river would make him a straight. When you call this river, are you saying he's unlikely to raise flop, barrel turn, and jam with that hand? Because if so, that would seem like an argument to 3B flop, or fold river, rather than calling down the whole way.
am late to this one. id call river for sure given op, would probably call anyways without it. i think the least likely outcome (basically doesn't happen) though is you call and he is value betting a5
My gut says your tiny flop bet might get a lot of random spaz to raise flop and barrel it off.
I think xc turn vs the 400 is fine; my main point is that Hero can punish this type of villain with a light xr range.
I guess I'm sort of having a hard time following your reasoning overall though. To me this seems like, Hero can just snap river off against an aggrotard without needing to even really do a detailed villain range construction, because villain might be trying to fold out portions of Hero range like ak,aq,at, kk, qq, tt, with semi-bluffs that picked up equity AND he might also be goi
factys