1/2/10 1.1k effective, empty the clip?

What's the cap in this game? Is the $10 straddle always on?

My first thought was that I don't normally play this deep, but I guess this is like a 100bb spot.

I don't think this is a particularly easy spot for you to be bluffing, since it starts out 3 ways and so many of your potential bluffs (J9s, Q9s, QJ) complete on the river.

Villain probably has all combos of QTo which is concerning, but he probably doesn't have J9s (even though in theory he probably should?) and he can't really have single pair QX. This is a flop that some players may trap on, but a trap is still somewhat unlikely against an aggressive opponent.

I feel like this is going to be a difficult spot for Villain to call down enough and you don't have that many hands to bluff, so running it here makes sense to me. Curious to see other responses cause I'm not super confident in mine.

Do you think he folds Tx here? To me that seems like the deciding factor - if he folds Tx a high % of the time I'd go for it, otherwise he calls too often here imo. I think he can still have sets, J9,QT - there's a lot of Tx combos, very few 8x, and some pairs maybe 99/77. The fact he snap called the turn overbet is concerning - might remove some of those lower parts of his range.

It does look like he's on some type of draw or has a pocket pair, maybe AT or similar? If he will fold a T or pocket pair, go for it. Really depends on player dynamics and what he puts you on. How often do you bet three streets like this? How often are you bluffing? Those are questions only you can answer.

pokerfan655 and I posted at about the same time -- I was finishing when his popped up 😉 We are on the same page, though, except I think the snap call on the turn looks more like a draw. That said, the most obvious draw (J9) just got there. Maybe he has a worse flush draw?

Game is match the stack and the 10 is on around half the time, other half mainly 5 is on and sometimes no straddle. Hero and pro play bigger together and both would look at it as a 100bb spot.

Ah well at least if you get snapped off you can get more money on the table.

The more I think about this hand, the less I like bluffing. Pro is more likely to have J9 (esp. if he calls J9o pre) than I originally thought, and more likely to call TX. He doesn't really have any autofolds either.

I highly doubt this guy is calling turn to fold river. If he called you on the turn with Tx, he's going to just grit his teeth and call, since your turn overbet was repping that you didn't need the Q anyway. (EDIT: This is the point where I think the fact that he's a pro and not a rec player or a fish matters most. The pro understands reverse implied odds but is calling in spite of that.)

Since you say you have played with him before, is it possible he's deviating from his usual aggressive play to trap you with T8 or a set?

I also might have just given up on the turn. Maybe it's just me, but I built my bankroll in reg-filled games, and when I play with a reg, I tend not to try a lot of bluffs. Sometimes, of course, but if they see me bluff too much they are the ones that are most likely to pick good spots to pick me off, which I don't want. And now I'd be worried about that here.

Why does ~everyone think a pro could still have J9 here after the turn? What am I missing?

I'm with CMV. I don’t like any of this to be honest. And I could be wrong, but I also think that if this hand wasn't posted by Mlark but by for example Stupidbanana or docvail, that everyone would probably berate them for it?

I'm not gonna berate someone who's clearly better than me and whose posts have taught me a lot, but I still wanna say I don’t like it. It just feels very unnecessary to me. Like some sort of dick waving contest.

Don't really have a strong opinion on this.

I would probably not cbet in this spot, but curious to hear other opinions.

As played, you represent overpairs+, so shoving would be consistent with your story, at this stack depth.
However, a lot depends on the history between you and V.

Can't be too bad of an idea to bluff A2-high in a vacuum--especially when the only front-door draw got there--and most people overfold in general, but I am kinda concerned about your frequencies. You can't be leading half pot 3-way with any backdoors, overbetting the turn with any 4-out+ draw and overjamming the river with any ace-high-, at least not if villain is the suspicious type.

Of course, you know better than I do whether villain is the suspicious type.

I don't study with solvers to the extent that other posters on this board do (OP included) but you are supposed to call against overbets with nut draws in a lot of spots like this. I ran an approximation of this spot in GTOWizard and the computer calls 130% pot on the turn pretty often with J9.

No clue what Mlark's villain's background is, but a player that voluntary straddles UTG to 5bb clearly isn't afraid to gamble.

i dont like flop (sizing but also bet in general) but id jam river, indifferentish to the turn

generally think its a fairly poor forum to post hands vs regs

I don't like the flop bet multiway, since this flop smashes preflop calling ranges.

I guess I'm in the minority about not liking the river shove, since J9 just got there, and all you're representing is an overpair or an AQ/KQ that hung around for too long. The fact that you're both pros means that he should be calling with approx. 1/3 of his range to a river shove.

Check the flop.

River bluffs can't be terrible, its mostly choosing a sizing to lose the least, since I think other options may outperform shove.

33, 88, TT, QQ, J9s, T8s and to a lesser extent QT and Q8s.

I would give up after V calls overbet. You've folded enough of hands (esp given that live players are so so scared of overbets).

You unblock his folding range. If V folds 10x here then it could be a good move. If he’s calling 10x here, you’re going to make a lot of money when you have value.

This spot is very opponent dependent and it’s hard to size someone up through a post. I’d say if your intuition is telling you to do it, then go for it

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I'm ok with preflop, flop and turn. A studied reg (e.g. "a pro") might view your sizings, particularly the turn OB, as solver-approved and therefore call you down with Tx (AT-T9 in his range as the straddle). I would think, also, that if he's trapping he wouldn't call quickly on the turn, although a rec might. I would be interested to know if he checked quickly on the river? Seems like a minor opportunity for some more info. He should be calling with JT and T9 sooner than KT or AT. I wonder if he continues on turn with 98? Seems less likely. I kind of want you to put in 120% on the river to get the best of the levelling war (and hope that villain doesn't have T9, JT or QT). If you bet and he snaps and shows 87 that would be interesting, once the dust settles.

River check was quick, but I can't recall the last time I have seen v donk bet, so I don't think there is a lot of info there.

True. I mistakenly was thinking it was a 3-bet pot.

Nonetheless, I don't see how one pro folds any Tx to another pro on the river for a psb.

Yeah, this is a fairly connected mid card flop and not good to bluff on the the preflop raiser. I don't like the turn overbet either. Once you get there, I can see bluffing river, but you can go like 500 rather than shove for more than pot again. Don't like stacking off as a bluff with a weak draw on a wet board.

You know your man better that we do. Does "aggressive" mean he's raising flop with value and bluffs? He's played this pretty passively. We're usually jamming at the end, when we get to the river the way we did. So does he fold most of his range when he gets here this way?

I like the line on flop and turn. Seems like we have to jam river if we're going to take this line, though, unless we think he's showing up with QT or J9 after calling our turn over-bet. Seems like he'll have more top pairs in his range. Maybe some 99 or 77, too.

He's never folding six combos of QTs/J9s. If he folds everything else, seems like a clear jam.

Additional thoughts - when the rec flats on the BTN, V is incentivized to call really wide, allowing him to liberally check raise, leading me to discount J9 or T8 when V is described as aggro.

The fact he just flat calls flop and turn makes me think he's got some modest showdown value, like some middling pair that will call flop and turn hoping we check back the river, but fold to a jam.

I figured you either misread the action or still hadn’t eaten that sandwich from the other day.

Btw, why did you leave me on read here? I really wanted to know 😭

https://twoplustwo.com/post?postId=58848096#post58848096