1/2/10 1.1k effective, empty the clip?
Villain and hero are both professional poker players. V is aggressive.
1/2/10 1.1k effective, pay for time, $2 promotional drop only.
Hero CO Ac2c 30, bu rec (300) calls, pro straddle calls.
Flop 91 Ts8c3d x, hero 45, bu folds, straddle calls
Turn 181 Ts8c3d4h x, hero 240, v calls relatively quick, within 5 seconds
River 661 Ts8c3d4hQh, x, hero? 785 effective.
That's like 20 sandwiches ago.
I didn't alter any settings regarding raising frequency.
That's like 20 sandwiches ago.
I didn't alter any settings regarding raising frequency.
I figured you didn’t mess with the frequencies but o was wondering if it shows you their range/frequency and the range/frequency you should continue with.
(I tried to dm you about this so as not to derail this thread, but this Reddit wannabe ah site is bugged out)
Spoiler
We jam, villain tank folds.
I haven't done a super huge deep dive into villain's range on the river and what I think he calls down.
Likely overbluffing if I bluff this combo pure, but exploitatively it could be good. Can have a lot of bricked draws. 97s, J7s, A5s bdfd, 76s, maybe even 65s if I was getting real creative. I would have to mix with these combos to not have too many or basically Tx becomes a profitable bluff catch 100% of the time. But in reality, poker is a dance where we should always overbluff when we think our opponent overfolds. If they start adjusting, then we have to adjust to. My inuition is thet v would overfold river. Honestly, I think I would overfold against most villain's. Even regs tend to be value heavy with their river overbet jams.
I do think villain's range is pretty capped and narrow. Best hand they have is likely QT, and maybe some T4, 84, 43s. But most of range is likely Tx that is put in a very comfortable spot.
Some of the nice things I like about my hand are that - not a lot of equity on the flop, so if we get raised it isn't a big deal. But we have the ability to turn the nfd on 10 cards, a gutter on 6 other cards that don't give us a flush draw already, 3 cards give us bottom pair. Even on the turn with 1 over and a gutter, that is 7 outs, almost as good as an open ender in terms of ours, but again not a big deal if we get raised. Our fold equity on turn and river paired with bit of actually equity can make our turn and river play profitable.
Why do we think he’s calling a jam with a ten on the worst river?
Not a fan of starting multi street bluffs with weak backdoors but I assume gto likes this at low frequency.
Why do we think he’s calling a jam with a ten on the worst river?
Not a fan of starting multi street bluffs with weak backdoors but I assume gto likes this at low frequency.
I would guess that he folds a T a lot on the river. He would need to defend some Tx for us to not auto profit, he just won't have enough two pair. It feels like people would call down linearly here, like call AT, but maybe not T9, but I don't that AT is better than any other T for calling. AT may be too thin to value jam on river
Any chance V has 67 after snap calling turn?
I wouldn't make a play with close to air on this kind of board, but as played, you have to go for it on the river.
Doubt it. Although as someone said earlier in theory sometimes 8 out supposed to call sometimes on the turn out if position. Maybe not 76s, but J9 maybe in theory is supposed to call turn. I think in practice a lot of pros will not call those kind of hands OOP on the turn when not getting direct odds.
Doubt it. Although as someone said earlier in theory sometimes 8 out supposed to call sometimes on the turn out if position. Maybe not 76s, but J9 maybe in theory is supposed to call turn. I think in practice a lot of pros will not call those kind of hands OOP on the turn when not getting direct odds.
I didn't even think about 76. I think I'd be less likely to call a turn over-bet with 76 because even if we spike a 9, we lose to QJ, which could be in CO's range. We'd have to be deeper, and I'd have to think hero is going to continue betting on a 9 or 5.
It makes sense to call with J9, drawing to the nuts. If we fold J9, our continue range gets compressed to slow-played 2P/sets for value, and weak 1P hands that won't be able to hang on unimproved if (when) hero jams the river.
I think that's what OmahaDonk and you were getting at - if he's only calling turn with value, never a draw, then he's probably supposed to call with some Tx on the river, which sucks, unless he runs into 2P with QT, or he was slow-playing T8.
I think my calling range on the turn would be T9-AT, T8, J9, and maybe sometimes 88/33. Not sure I'd ever have TT in range when I just flat pre. I think I'd be 3B'ing TT almost 100%.
If we don't continue with J9 and flat with some 2P and sets, it seems like we'd be pretty starved for hands that can call a jam on any river that doesn't improve us to trips.
All of which is why I think we can jam here. If V isn't slow-playing enough 2P/sets, and he probably isn't, and if he's not continuing enough with J9, and he isn't hanging on with Tx, this bluff prints.
What I found interesting about this hand is how much focus is on Villain's range. But what about Hero? Given he's CO, he definitely has QQ, TT, 88, 33, with perhaps 2 combos of T8s and QTs as well as 4 of J9s, which amounts to 20 nutted combos in total. Given that Villain needs to be good more than 35% (785/2231) to call the shove he only needs to find 11 bluff combos. Of course I'm assuming that Hero doesn't value shove AA, KK, JJ or AT, which is open to debate.
As a start, 3 combos each of A2s, A5s, 56s and 76s as well as 4 of 97s amounts to 16 bluff combos (not including, for instance, AJs and KJs). I mean the only flop and turn bluffs that become value hands on the river are J9s and maybe QJ.
The point is that even if Villain decides that Hero can shove overpairs for value as well his nutted range, there's still plenty of wiggle room to call with Tx. Given that Villain is a pro and aware that Hero is capable of triple-barreling with air, risk-aversion is still a significant enough pressure point for him to make a -EV fold. So the conclusion that Hero can overbluff is certainly reasonable, although barreling hands with back-door equity on the flop and turn requires a preparedness to OB rivers.
Of course, Villain might be lighter than Tx and he might be assuming Hero can value-shove Tx himself, which could mean the exploit isn't as effective as it might seem.
What I found interesting about this hand is how much focus is on Villain's range. But what about Hero? Given he's CO, he definitely has QQ, TT, 88, 33, with perhaps 2 combos of T8s and QTs as well as 4 of J9s, which amounts to 20 nutted combos in total. Given that Villain needs to be good more than 35% (785/2231) to call the shove he only needs to find 11 bluff combos. Of course I'm assuming that Hero doesn't value shove AA, KK, JJ or AT, which is open to debate.
As a start, 3 combos each of A2
Good analysis.
OP said V is an aggro pro. He could be lighter than than top pair when he doesn't raise flop or turn. I could see 99/77 calling flop, and maybe turn if V and OP are both pros.
I may be wrong on the logic, but my gut instinct is that the population will over-fold Tx here, when hero goes b/b/b with geometric sizing and an over-card comes on the river, simply because it's such a strong and under-bluffed line, especially if hero is also shoving AA/KK, even more so if he shoves JJ and AT, though those seem like easy check backs.
I see high stakes players make these calls with weak top or 2nd pairs on live streams, but lower stakes players tend to look for better spots rather than count combos looking for bluffs.
