PAHWM: KK vs limp raiser pre

Call and see a flop in position.

0 reads is a little tougher. And even if she showed you A’s you’re not folding so flat and play small ball seems fine. But you have raised 3 hands in a row. And 3 of 5 total. I don’t hate a 4b to $110-115 but have to fold to a 5b shove. Oh well if she shoves. Losing $110 KK vs AA doesn’t sound that bad.

the history means nothing...it's 4 hands. limp reraise can be a ton more than AA....but a 5 bet shove very rarely is

I'm raising to 125, folding to a shove

Also on Team 125/f. It has the benefit of probably ejecting the BB caller as well.

I am mildly concerned that we might induce a light shove, given our image, but this V player stereotype doesn't seem as likely as others to do that. Not a fan of V's sizing at all, FWIW. Not sure if that means she's more or less likely to have Aces though, lol.

LOL at everyone who thinks that after a few hands at a new low-limit table, some random middle-aged woman is going to LRR with something other than AA just to punish someone who's raised the first few hands.

Call and see a flop. If a king hits, you are probably stacking her.

So, you fold?

I have pretty much zero no experience in LV games but people who play in my game say they play massively tight when compared to our game. With that said...

I dunno, with us raise/taking two hands early on, we're probably being pegged as the loose cannon. So she could easily be limping to trap with worse against a crazy guy, and she's not folding to a reraise. I mean, it's tough without having solid reads, and I have folded KK preflop 4 times, but I'm not sure I can't go broke with it here.

But again, even in my extremely small experience, LV games play way differently than I'm used to. I once played Paris (or was it Planet Hollywood, I can't remember) and on my first hand I got QQ facing a raise and got in my relatively shortstack preflop against better; after an hour of playing with the guy after that, I would have legit folded it to his opening raise, but I obviously didn't have that info at the time. So gross spot if you're not used to this particular environment.

And after thinking about this some more, I also think we've made a mistake buying into this game at the deepish maximum with no reads / etc. Seems to me we'd be far better off buying in short, getting a feel for the game, and then topping up when we have a much better handle on what is going on in order to know better how to handle spots like this.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Doubt we'll see a light shove; we've not given enough away yet to make anyone go crazy. If you were PFRing 60% after 20 hands it might be different.

Not sure there's much in it now. I probably call with position and various ways of getting the money in postflop

To GG's point, I've read on here that LV games play tighter, but that wasn't my experience at 1/3 the last time I was in LV, though that was 13 years ago. Maybe the games have changed since then, but from watching Vlogs like Jaman Burton's, I still notice plenty of loose action.

What would concern me here is that the limp-3B is typically indicative of a nutted hand, middle-aged black women aren't the stereotypical profile of a maniac, and this is the first hand she's played. Only five hands into a new table starting, it's obviously not a big data sample, but it's all we've got.

We can level ourselves into thinking our recent actions have her thinking we're maniacal, and she's just playing back at us, but the way most low stakes rec-fish do that is by trapping with thick value (which is what it appears she's done here), not running wild bluffs. If, let's say, V was a capable LAG, we might just flat call here anyway, to let V blast away into our strong hand.

Seems like a spot where we can just play small ball and let her actions post flop provide us with info we can use to make our decisions. Worst case, she continues the aggression and we fold the best hand. But the table just opened, so we'll have plenty of opportunities to win money from her and our other opponents.

The 2/5 and above games in Vegas are supposed to be tough with a lot of regs, but he 1/3 games literally have a lot of tourists. Just what I've heard and read.

And this is why Ed Miller's pieces on taking a Bayesian approach is so important. We have to use priors, which is 80% likelihood that she is an ABC rec who only Limp/RR AA/KK, and if anything the previous action (or lack of) may move that percentage up marginally.

FWIW - I see some low stakes rec-fish do this with TT and JJ, because they're afraid of playing those hands OOP post-flop. So they'll either open for a huge size just to take it down pre and not have to make hard decisions post, or they'll turn JJ/TT into a bluff by taking this limp-3B line.

If that's what she's doing, I'd expect her to either give up on the flop if we call, and play the rest of the hand very defensively, or jam any flop that looks "safe" because no over-cards. I don't think I could find a fold pre for $50 over a $15 open, but I'd already be dreading the flop jam I expect half the time.

At this stack depth we simply cannot fold KK here. We can set mine even if we have seen he’s got AA in his hand

Raise >call but no fold

You have odds to call if you know she has AA. However, if you call and try to gii if you hit and fold if you miss, that is probably losing. That is because a lot of times when you hit, she doesn't have AA and you can't get stacks in.

I would call, but 4!/fold is possible. Either way, you try to get a read from postflop action, etc.

Moving on...

I call.

Pot = $115
Flop = 346r

I have no fear she has flopped a set or has a big draw, but that's just my perhaps unfounded assumption that she had to have a big pair or AK at the worst.

She fires $75 with confidence. To me, it smells of a please-call-me bet.

My thinking is I'm way ahead of TT - QQ and AK, or near dead to AA.

Fold, call, raise?

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Call.

Agree, call.

But I'm confused about a few things. Besides BB folding for 35 more to close the action...Lol WTF? It was good enough to call one raise OOP, but not a small 2nd one, with IO still over 15:1?

Anyway, I don't think a 70% cbet on 643r in a 3! pot screams "call me" at all. A 1/3 to 1/2 pot bet or even a check, if V wants H to catch up a bit: those would. Honestly don't know what to make of it, besides helping to add another layer to my suspicion that this is how a poorer player plays Aces. I don't mind that much loosing 165 bb to AA over KK though. Coolers happen.

I'm curious why H thinks her range is now TT+, AK, and if that's the case, really why didn't we 4! pre? We're way ahead of that range, FWIW on this flop. I just don't think V calls anything but AA, maybe KK if we raise.

Pot'll be 265 if we call, with 375 back. I expect V to x turn, per Ye Olden Way to Play an Overpair. We can easily bet safe turns (basically anything not an A, and now T-Q, I guess) if we choose. Or x behind too, if desired.

I think she has AA, but I have to consider I might be wrong. And if so, what else would she possibly have?

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With all due respect, preflop is the most obvious 4bet in the world, ~110-120 .
Then, if V 5bets or shoves, you MIGHT consider folding if you have a really strong read on her (personally, I would never fold KK against an unknown).

But here we are, OP and many other posters are like 99% sure that V has AA, and H has the odds to call for set-mining, so he should just call, ok.
Flop is about as dry as it gets (given V's action pre), H didn't hit his set, and V cbets 2/3 pot.

Well, according to your preflop read and plan, this should be now an auto-fold ...

Yeah, I mean, flatting preflop gets us to a fairly small SPR of 4.5. What's our plan? I guess we can get away if an A comes at some point and she doesn't care. But otherwise are we just going to make some hero fold at some point having gotten in rather large percentages of stacks?

GcluelessNLnoobG

Not necessarily folding postflop but I think the idea is the Villain puts in money with a wider range if we flat pre and appear to decapitate our range

Ugh. I kinda want to fold here.

She limp-3B pre, and is c-betting large. If she's taking this line with worse for value, her money will be moving around the table soon enough. I hate paying off the fish. And "it's just a cooler" sucks, as far as making me feel better about it goes.

Hypothetically, if we call, the pot will be $265, and we'll have $375 behind. Are we just going to call down the whole way, if she keeps barreling, because maybe she has TT-QQ or AK and doesn't realize she's beat?

At what point are we pot-committed to calling the rest off, even though we already suspect we're beat? If she bets $100-$150 on the turn, do we fold then?

Isn't the answer to your first question, answered by: "What does a 2/3 Vegas MABW, who we know nothing else about, besides she's folded the first few hands, L/RR small UTG with?" Oh, and her sizing is definitely non-standard. In my limited experience, this is just about always KK+. Maybe AK too, but they usually open then shove it, hoping to see 5. Do they do this with 99-QQ vs just opening it or open-calling?

Hence my question about why is V's range expanding on the flop. And if it's not expanding, then sweet baby Jesus, why didn't we 4! pre?

I don't mind that much getting coolered, though I get there differently than AP. Anyway, we're not dead yet, calling this cbet and seeing if V slows down on turn isn't awful. We get two blanks for turn and river, then V overbet shoves river, we can fold having lost near the minimum. Edit, Oh, I'm probably folding to a 150 into 265 bet on a blank turn. Where it gets interesting is if a J or Q rolls off. Kinda tempted to shove those, albeit I think we get looked up.