PAHWM: KK vs limp raiser pre
Newly opened table, Horseshoe Vegas, 2/3, 8-handed, everyone has ~$500, which is max buy. I've never played vs. anyone here.
1st and 2nd hands, I'm in blinds and fold out to small bets. Small pots get taken down post flop.
3rd hand, I bet $15 from But with TJsu, blinds + a limber fold.
4th hand, I bet $15 from CO, and again, I scoop the blinds and a limber. The table is playing tight.
5th hand, V1, middle-aged black woman (MABW) who hasn't played a hand limps from UTG+1. All folds to me, and I bet $15 from HJ with KK. BB calls, and V1 raises to $50.
Limp raise from early position by MABW, who I have no read on? Smells of AA, but I can't fold KK. I probably appear to her as loose aggressive after 3 pre bets in 3 hands, so maybe she views me as reckless and might limp raise lighter.
I do pause to consider what she thinks and my options. I could raise, but if I'm ahead, she'll fold and I won't maximize a premium hand. If I'm behind, I can get away cheap to her reraise.
Do I bet, fold, or raise?
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With all due respect, preflop is the most obvious 4bet in the world, ~110-120 .
Then, if V 5bets or shoves, you MIGHT consider folding if you have a really strong read on her (personally, I would never fold KK against an unknown).
With all due respect, it's your money, so spew it away as you see fit.
A middle-aged woman is the first person I would call or fold to preflop. I should know because I am one. However, I'm more aggressive than most and would do this w/ AK, AQs, JJ/QQ, but not much so early in the game vs. someone who is basically unknown to me -- and I usually just raise first in.
AP, I call pre and probably call the flop, but that's about it unless she bets less than $100 on the river, then it's a decision.
I know in this solver era that everyone is too sophisticated for reads, but this is where they make some sense. How does she have her chips stacked. Did she just look at her cards once, or has she gone back to look at them. Did she count out her chips one or two at a time or did she smooth cut them? It isn't definitive, but it gives evidence whether she's an experienced player or not.
I'm more inclined to call someone who looks like they've played a lot.
Isn't the answer to your first question, answered by: "What does a 2/3 Vegas MABW, who we know nothing else about, besides she's folded the first few hands, L/RR small UTG with?" Oh, and her sizing is definitely non-standard. In my limited experience, this is just about always KK+. Maybe AK too, but they usually open then shove it, hoping to see 5. Do they do this with 99-QQ vs just opening it or open-calling?
Hence my question about why is V's range expanding on the flop. And if it's not e
I'm not positive your questions which seem to be directed to me aren't in fact rhetorical. Seems like you already have an answer in mind. But whatevs, I'll play...
I mean...it's a $hlt spot with KK, no matter what we do pre or post. If we 4B pre and she jams, are we just folding, or do we level ourselves into calling, because MAYBE she's over-playing QQ or JJ?
So our choices are 4B-fold pre, 4B-call a 5B-jam pre, fold pre to her limp-3B, fold flop to her c-bet, fold turn if she barrels on a brick, or fold river when she jams, or just call the whole way.
I hate all the choices here. If we're going to fold at some point post-flop, I'd rather just fold pre-flop. If we're not folding at any point, I'd rather 4B pre and call off a 5B jam.
I don't think this is how we're supposed to think about the game, but sometimes I just think about which is going to make me hate myself more - folding KK pre, or calling off four streets expecting her to turn over AA.
I think calling the whole way is going to tilt me more than folding KK pre, because if I fold KK pre I can tell myself I made an expert hero fold because she always and only limp-3B's AA, whereas if I call the whole way I also know she almost always and only has AA.
We can talk in hypotheticals, about potentially turning KK into a bluff if the turn or river is a Q, J or T, but let's not. We're never doing that. If we wanted to get OOL, we could have done it pre. She's not folding AA because we start blasting off on a Q, J, or T. If we turned a set, she's just paying us off.
It's also contradictory to flat with KK, hoping she has TT-QQ, and then jamming on a Q, J or T.
I dunno. I think we flat called pre to set-mine. We didn't flop a set. We thought her range was mostly just AA pre. I think we can just fold to her flop c-bet, and congratulate ourselves on avoiding a cooler.
We have to be consistent with our logic. We flatted pre in the hopes that she would slow down or we'd hit a set. If we're expecting her to pay us off if we make a set with KK, it's contradictory to think she's going to fold because we might have made a set with QQ/JJ/TT.
I'm glad to see there's arguments both ways and I wasn't absolutely stupid.
I call the $75 making the pot $265
Turn = 3463
She doesn't pause and fires $100.
Surely the turn didn't make a difference for either of us and she's keeping it cheap.
Call, fold, raise, shove?
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We have position so there’s really no value in raising.
If we put them on only AA, then we should have folded flop. I think they’re wider than that and I’m not folding now. Call turn, call river
This really is a tough one. She most likely has AA, but it's down to a table read. If I were V, I'd keep firing w/ all my hands. It's really hard to put you on KK. But she could be completely different from me.
FWIW, if H had raised to ~$120 pre, I would have shoved AK.
I call making pot = $465
River = 3463J
On the remote chance she has JJ, I let her catch up. But I still think she has AA. She insta fires $150 so she has no apparent fear I have JJ.
If I call, I'll have roughly $140 in my stack. A call of $150 to win 615 is too cheap to not call...I think.
Fold, call, shove?
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