1/2: Bottom set facing river PSB
1/2 NL, ~$700 effective
I’m viewed as fairly tight by V.
I open 33 to $10 from UTG+2. Four callers including V, a loose-passive friendly fish in the BB.
Flop ($50): JT3r
V donks $15. I raise to $50. Folds back to V, who calls.
Turn ($150): 4x
V checks. I bet $100. He calls.
River ($350): 8x
V now leads $300.
Some reads on him:
* Loose-passive home-game player.
* I’ve never seen him bluff in hours.
* Just 2 mins ago he slowplayed the nuts in another hand.
Here's the HH on that one:
Vopens $20 with AKo, CO & BTN call.
Flop ($60): JTx
he checks, CO checks, BTN bets $45, he calls, CO calls
Turn ($195): Qx
Checks around
River ($195): 8x
He checks, CO bets $100, BTN folds, he check raises to $225, BTN calls with T9o and he tables AKo
* Another hand, he called my PFR, check-called three half-pot bets with J7o on a JT832 board versus my KK.
The sizing was what really got me. In 5+ hours I don’t think I’d seen him make a bet anywhere near this large, especially into me.
At the table I thought:
* Q9 gets there, but would he really donk the flop with an OESD?
* Would he pot the river with JT/J8/T8 for value?
* Or is this population just massively underbluffing this node?
Given the live reads and sizing, are you calling or folding here? Is this an exploitative fold versus this profile, or is bottom set simply too high up in my range to let go?
5 Replies
1/2 NL, ~$700 effective
I’m viewed as fairly tight by V.
I open 33 to $10 from UTG+2. Four callers including V, a loose-passive friendly fish in the BB.
Flop ($50): JT3r
V donks $15. I raise to $50. Folds back to V, who calls.
Turn ($150): 4x
V checks. I bet $100. He calls.
River ($350): 8x
V now leads $300.
Sigh call.
If we put villain on exactly [JJ, TT, JT, Q9] then it's a fold -- but it's close and I'm not folding based on 100 hands to build my read.
Do you think 33 is a +EV open from EP?
Sigh call.
If we put villain on exactly [JJ, TT, JT, Q9] then it's a fold -- but it's close and I'm not folding based on 100 hands to build my read.
Do you think 33 is a +EV open from EP?
I honestly open and set my price with any pairs at full ring tables because nobody 3bets enough but they call a wide range of trash.
I assume he could do this with JT or J8. Iām not folding
He played like you would expect Q9 to play.
Fold.