1/2: Bottom set facing river PSB
1/2 NL, ~$700 effective
I’m viewed as fairly tight by V.
I open 33 to $10 from UTG+2. Four callers including V, a loose-passive friendly fish in the BB.
Flop ($50): JT3r
V donks $15. I raise to $50. Folds back to V, who calls.
Turn ($150): 4x
V checks. I bet $100. He calls.
River ($350): 8x
V now leads $300.
Some reads on him:
* Loose-passive home-game player.
* I’ve never seen him bluff in hours.
* Just 2 mins ago he slowplayed the nuts in another hand.
Here's the HH on that one:
Vopens $20 with AKo, CO & BTN call.
Flop ($60): JTx
he checks, CO checks, BTN bets $45, he calls, CO calls
Turn ($195): Qx
Checks around
River ($195): 8x
He checks, CO bets $100, BTN folds, he check raises to $225, BTN calls with T9o and he tables AKo
* Another hand, he called my PFR, check-called three half-pot bets with J7o on a JT832 board versus my KK.
The sizing was what really got me. In 5+ hours I don’t think I’d seen him make a bet anywhere near this large, especially into me.
At the table I thought:
* Q9 gets there, but would he really donk the flop with an OESD?
* Would he pot the river with JT/J8/T8 for value?
* Or is this population just massively underbluffing this node?
Given the live reads and sizing, are you calling or folding here? Is this an exploitative fold versus this profile, or is bottom set simply too high up in my range to let go?
9 Replies
1/2 NL, ~$700 effective
I’m viewed as fairly tight by V.
I open 33 to $10 from UTG+2. Four callers including V, a loose-passive friendly fish in the BB.
Flop ($50): JT3r
V donks $15. I raise to $50. Folds back to V, who calls.
Turn ($150): 4x
V checks. I bet $100. He calls.
River ($350): 8x
V now leads $300.
Sigh call.
If we put villain on exactly [JJ, TT, JT, Q9] then it's a fold -- but it's close and I'm not folding based on 100 hands to build my read.
Do you think 33 is a +EV open from EP?
Sigh call.
If we put villain on exactly [JJ, TT, JT, Q9] then it's a fold -- but it's close and I'm not folding based on 100 hands to build my read.
Do you think 33 is a +EV open from EP?
I honestly open and set my price with any pairs at full ring tables because nobody 3bets enough but they call a wide range of trash.
I assume he could do this with JT or J8. Iām not folding
He played like you would expect Q9 to play.
Fold.
PRE - might be a little bit too wide to open, but whatever. It's probably fine at low stakes.
FLOP - V isn't repping much for value. I think we can just call, and let him bet again on the turn. I don't hate the raise though.
TURN - as played, definitely bet for a chunky size. Wondering if we could go even larger, like full pot, to target JT and any inelastic draws.
RIVER - doubtful he's bluffing, but he could be betting worse for value: JT. I'd think he's going to have JT, TT, and Q9 here pretty much pure in this line.
If he calls pre with every combo of JT and Q9, he's got 25 combos of Q9/TT that we lose to, and 9 combos of JT that we beat. We need to be good here around 32% of the time to make the call. So.we need to find at least 3 bluff combos he could have.
Maybe he turns 98 into a bluff, but you say he hasn't shown a bluff in hours.
Maybe he 3B's TT pre or on the flop. But he might also 3B JT on the flop. Hard to find the logic of him donking huge on the river with JT or TT when Q9 comes in.
I dunno. I probably just give him credit for having Q9 and let 33 go.
Of two minds reading this. You really need a dead-solid read to fold river, only needing 30-31% or so. OTOH, damned if you aren't laying a predicate for this guy has it.
Light open, w/e, not going to clap you for it. At least it's not as blindingly obvious later as limping early would be.
Flop raise, and I grrr at raising, given 3 Vs behind, but you can't let this clown block-bet b30 and set his price. Not when the world has draws connecting with JTr. Raise bigger, but you got heads up so,
Turn needs to be bigger than b66. Make him make a mistake, when you're still (carry the one) 640 back. 100 isn't it. He's a loose-passive, whose error is going to be drawing w/o the odds. Make him make that mistake. I wouldn't hate 200 here. He'll call it.
River, and a LP bombs b85 when they've been calling the whole way, and you've been betting into them? The solver will hate it, but this is Q9. JT or 54 probably finds a raise, right?
I don't have a doubt, but if you do, pay him to show, and fake-congratulate them on the bink. It's what they're expecting to see.
If pots are going multiway, I would bet more pre UTG with a tighter range. It’s so much better to get it heads up in early position preflop. Set mine or use 33 as a bluff in late position.
AP, I’m fine with flop and turn.
Does V ever make river bluffs? Is he a bad player? I think you can a put a loose passive player who bluffs the river on AJx here. Or a player who overvalues tptk. So if you have a read on bluffing or overvaluing, I would call. You can make a nitty folds if you don’t have a read
I’m probably sigh calling too.
Raise bigger on the flop and bet bigger on the turn. You want to be setting up a river jam.
As played I do expect to see Q9 a lot, but I'm not folding. You beat some two pair combos he could be trying to get value with, and recreational players will show up with random hands you wouldn't think they should ever be playing that way, like Jx, Tx and missed straight draws such as KQ or T9. I know you said he doesn't bluff but you can't be too confident about what this sort of player is thinking as it often makes no sense. Don't level yourself into folding a set. If you're beat you're beat.
