FT bubbles
I’ve lost couple of tournaments in the recent days on ft bubbles by shoving mid pocket pairs 77-99 from early positions and getting called by a better pp. The pattern is the same: I still have a healthy stack of 10-15bb while average being 15-20bb, and as I find raise folding with below 15bb a waste so I’d rather jam to gain 2.5bb of dead money, but I started to think it might be super fragile to put my tournament life at risk with a hand that either is going to be called with a higher pp or flipping at best. Sanity check please
14 Replies
The last two hands of the last tournament went like this- I was on UTG+1, 9handed, with 88 and 17bb so I min-opened, the BTN who was about 25bb 3betted to 6bb and I folded (good?). The very next hand I was also dealt 88 and with 14.5bb I jammed from UTG.
Is this a FT bubble or not? Because 9-handed doesn't indicate you're about to break a table.
The final table bubble and start of the final table are some of the higher ICM-pressure spots. The spots you described with 77-99 in EP and a 10-15 BB stack are going to depend on the exact chip distributions, but in some cases shoving could be a mistake. For example if there are any micro stacks with 2 or 3 BBs it's kind of a disaster to jam and bust before them when you could wait them out and ladder.
In vacuum I'd oftenly open with a minraise here in your scenarios, or fold pre. You oftenly get, if the players aren't good, similar fold equity to your minraises as to your shoves, and exploitative opportunities postflop where you don't necessarily have to risk many additional chips if you don't have a set / overpair, and a small cbet may achieve a lot already. So minraising performs perfectly fine and we don't put all our chips at risk pre.
Does anyone know what is the percentage of a situation that at any given moment 9handed someone has TT+? Statistically, regardless of the actions taken
so around 20% I’m called with a higher PP, I can’t find an AT+ percentage tho, for now I don’t consider being called by QJ and KJ+ as I’m shoving from UTG
I don't think 88 is a good shove for 15xBB UTG. It is basically the same as shoving 44, because the two hands play the same against calling hands. If you don't want to r/f, you can open fold or maybe limp.
I don't think 88 is a good shove for 15xBB UTG. It is basically the same as shoving 44, because the two hands play the same against calling hands. If you don't want to r/f, you can open fold or maybe limp.
And that’s what I wanted to read, it was my concern too. Although 88 is in couple top % of an overall range, against real life calling cards it performs like 44 you mentioned. I overestimated mid pps
With tournaments, it is sometimes more the situation than the quality of your hand. It is fine to fold 88 UTG with 15xBB. With that stack size, you can open shove with worse hands from late position or shove over a mid to late position raiser.
In general 15xBB is not an easy to play stack size. You can pushbot more with less than 10xBB, and play aggressively with a big stack. Need to play somewhat tight with 15xBB.
There are hands you can open shove UTG for 15xBB, like AK/AQ/TT/JJ. Usually, you should play tight UTG with that stack, and usually r/f or r/gii, not open shove.
Folding 88 UTG with 15xBB is probably optimal. You don't have blockers to steal the blinds. The hand plays poorly postflop HU and shallow.
Thank you db
