Survivor: GENERAL THREAD

They said on rhap that Sai did a whole “black lives matter” thing that was cut from the episode

I can see her doing something idiotic like that and also very glad production cut it if they did. She's among the most annoying humans to ever play the game.

Cedrek just completely sewered his game. Instead of Justin, who would have been a loyal ally, you decided to go with Sai who is volatile and been proven to be stupid multiple times already. She will also never win any type of immunity if she makes the merge.

I'm assuming next week they are going to a 5/5/5 split, in which case Mary actually has an advantage over Sai if they end up on the same tribe because Sai has been so terribad and so vocal. Nobody will ever want to work with her unless they absolutely have to. Cedrek will likely be the first voted out on whatever tribe he ends up on.

That's what I was saying was going to happen. Cedrek has to vote Justin here or he's out.

Guess not.

Trying to imagine how much racism card would've been played if Cedrek was white, Sai white, and ended up voting out black Justin.

This episode was further proof that 3 tribes suck and gimmicks like 'shot in the dark' suck. Old Survivor rules!

I can't wait for Sai to exit the island. The sooner the better.

The new swap tribes have been reveled by Mike Bloom. Will put in spoilers below.

That was a clinic by Kamilla and Kyle.

Question is - did he play the extra vote? I didn't expect him to, but then he pulled it out at the voting booth.

Beyond that - a reasonable episode where you can see a reasonable advantage played to have a substantial impact on the game when you had no other way out. Not 4 different advantages being played as a crutch because you couldn't accomplish what you wanted to do just by good social play.

See I disagree personally.

As much as the edit is trying to prop up K+K, I think it was just a laughably bad blunder by Thomas

A 5 person tribal with a 3-2 numbers advantage, one more round before the merge AND on the tribe most likely to win immunity on paper.

The steal a vote is the most obvious auto play in the universe.

Its like folding KK to an open raise because you are waiting for a better spot. There is no better spot Thomas. That IS the spot

yeah super dumb by Thomas

he got lulled into a false sense of security from that lame bag search

And not wanting to be exposed as deceiving his core alliance.

The initial improv job between Kamilla and Kyle was very sharp though. I wonder if that was in fact discussed as a contingency.

Yeah, the clinic I was referring to was beginning to end after the tribe swap, not just at TC. But even the acting jobs at TC were top notch.

I don't disagree that it was very stupid of Thomas not to steal at TC. He steals, puts that vote on Kamilla, ties Kamilla 1-1, and Kamilla loses on the revote. Not wanting to be exposed for the alliance deception was his downfall.

So the steal a vote makes it a 4-1 with no other advantages
Or as played a 4-2

Meaning can then split and protect against both a potential idol and a successful shot in the dark play which you can't do in a 3-2

Furthermore he'd even been tipped off early in the episode that Kamilla was putting his name out there.

Right, but he wasn’t willing to discuss it with his alliance. So I guess we’d have to give him enough credit to put both votes on Kamilla, knowing the other 2 were voting Kyle.

2-2-1 she’s gone or 3-1-1 and a revote and she’s gone.

Though, he’d have to know to steal Kamilla’s vote and not Kyle’s to protect against SITD. Which is a pure flip since they clearly didn’t think either had an idol or advantage. So I don’t think there is a guaranteed protection in your scenario.

Where did you get 4-2? Did Kamilla play her extra vote? I thought she held on to it. If not, she probably does if someone steals her vote, knowing any votes played on Kyle are dead. Then you’re at 2-2-2 and she loses on a revote unless we see another alliance turn at TC with the deception lol.

I wonder, if someone steals your vote but you have an extra vote, does that reopen SITD?

Yep it's been confirmed by Dalton Ross that Kamilla gave Kyle her extra vote and he played it

As far as I can see the only scenario its not guaranteed protection to do a 2-2 split with the steal a vote is in this scenario;

-Thomas steals Kamilla's vote
-Kamilla plays her extra vote so is back to one vote
-BOTH Kyle and Kamilla play SITD and both hit safe (unsure if that's even possible with the way they do the 1/6 odds)

Or sorry I guess if one person plays an idol and the other rolls a SITD safe*

This is results orientated thinking.

How so? Steal a vote is more powerful the less members you have at TC, especially when you already know it’s 3-2.

I can’t remember how long it was good for, but it’s not nearly as valuable if he reaches the merge.

I’m with BBY on this one.

I believe it is good until final 5.

You guys always go nuts when the fancy-play starts up because someone might have an idol. Now you're saying that because someone might have an idol he should have played his advantage. Which one is it?

Who is you guys?

We’ve seen time and time again where people go home with advantages because they’re trying to save them or not blow up their alliance because of the deception or whatever.

What if, instead of going home with the advantages, they just play them? Especially in this new era where advantages are all over the place, plus this being the first TC after a tribe swap. That’s almost always my position, but maybe others have flip flopped.

Call it results oriented if you want, but the results also don’t lie.

Thomas was more worried about ruining California Girls than making sure he stayed in the game.

When to play something is a calculated risk. Sai burned her idol for absolutely no reason just because "it's safer", and now she's in a much weaker position in the game and I suspect she's going to desperately need that idol very soon.

For Thomas, there was no particular reason to believe Kamila and Kyle were together, no reason to believe Kyle held an idol (and with the bag search, actually some reason to believe he didn't), and even if he did have it, no reason beyond the normal 1/3 or 1/4 chance that he would be Kyle's target. It seemed like a reasonable gamble to hold onto his advantage. Results oriented thinking is exactly what's going on here.

As ole Mikey McD said - you can't lose what you don't put in the middle. But you can't win much either.

Just because you play one advantage, doesn’t mean you won’t find another one later. But you can’t find another one later if you go home with one in your pocket.

It’s always a calculated risk, and whether you’re right or wrong will be judged on the results. This isn’t a poker tournament where you can jump into another game if you bust. It’s a once in a lifetime opportunity for most.

In a 3 v 2 where the 2 are complete unknowns, it seems like a good spot to make sure you’re good. Especially with an advantage like steal a vote.

There will always be a lot of variance in this game. There is a **** ton of imperfect information. You never know what the next day will bring in this game. But I’d be doing everything I could to make sure I see the next day.

Across Survivor history have been significantly more people going home with an idol in their pocket than playing an idol when they were safe anyway.

Despite the fact as tar says its much much worse to go home with one than to 'missplay' one.

Worst case scenario is you misplay and are GTD to be the next vote, but even then you still always have the out of winning immunity or finding another idol/advantage

My stance is always to play advantages early and often. The new era more than ever.

By playing the steal the vote Thomas would have significantly improved his chances of making final 14, one round before mergatory and on the strongest immunity tribe on paper. Absolutely nothing to do with results orientated thinking

I just disagree with this. You can make a perfect decision and it all go wrong due to bad luck or things you couldn't have possibly predicted. For Thomas's decision to go wrong here, three things have to happen:

1) Kamila has to be lying to them
2) Kyle has to have an idol
3) Thomas has to be the target

Can you blow up your secret advantage to keep you safe in that 5% of the time that all three factors align against you and be safe, sure. And maybe you can argue that in the early part of the game, it's more important (the "you can't win it all on day 1, but you sure can lose it" philosophy).

It's also important to remember - this is an all or nothing game. Smaller pay jumps aside, the real money and value is finishing first. Whether you're the fourth person voted out or the tenth doesn't make much difference, so you might as well go for it.

Most of this game is luck lol, especially in the new era. So when you have ways to minimize “bad” luck you should do it.

Also, the steal a vote is just not that powerful of an advantage once you get to the merge. The smaller the tribe, the better of an advantage. I’d maybe be more keen on the argument if we were talking an idol that no one knows about and lasts until final 5. But even then, it’s better to be safe than sorry.

It’s certainly an all or nothing game, but it’s also a game where every day brings something new. Just because you might make a short term play on day 9, doesn’t mean more opportunities won’t arise. Y’all are putting too much stock into protecting advantages, especially early on.

Another thing to add is playing the steal a vote not only significantly lowers his own chances of going at 15 but also significantly lowers his two close allies chances in Joe and Sharhin

With a 75% chance one of the three would end up on the next journey assuming there is one next episode