[2NL] - AKs facing river jam

Raise bigger pre around 6bb

UTG limp/call range is difficult to narrow down but I think your assumption is right this line is rarely bluffed.. but I think with the odds we get and what can they really be value raising here.. 8x, jj seems unlikely.. so i dont mind a call, I think it's close.

Bet pot or overbet turn and shove river.

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Why pot/overbet turn?

Fish gets to turn with most combinations of T9, Q9 etc, ton of Jx, any 2 hearts, some back door hearts, some Ax floats. 8x is the very top of his range.

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i think i'd be paying him off if he slowplayed me this hard - not many combos of 8x or 55 left. i'm raising pre larger, cbet turn larger, and jam river hoping to stack Jx

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squeeze to 12bb or so preflop, flopbet is fine, turn make it 75% at least.

But as played good fold! Imo I think this spot is underbluffed (almost 0 bluffs) .

I agree, little to no bluffs here.

Thanks for the reply!

Raise PF larger, to 5BB at least.
Turn sizing is ok, sometimes I think 50% pot will get villians to raise their trips, which lets us get away cheaply. We still get value from flush and straight draws and Jx might even call vs fold to 75%.

What worse hands will call 66% OTR? Depending on Villian I think bet/fold small could be ok. Mostly I'm checking, expecting missed draws may bluff small or 50% POT.

I would raise bigger preflop.

I would also Check/call the river. For a few reasons.

1. You only looking to get value from a Jack, or I guess Ax. But a Jack could fold given
the action, but maybe calls. Also I would hope that your opponent might bet an Ace for you
sometimes if you check to him, and valuetowns himself.

2. All the draws missed. So you might induce a bluff from all missed draws flush draws and
T9, QT,

But my way of playing is how I would play it vs the field. I suppose if you up against a super
calling station fish that will call a Jack, and also pay you off with like 22-TT or something then
a bet is probably warranted.

This is what makes poker tough though. The correct decision totally depends on the villain.

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Yo ! Based on my analysis the fold is great river he is only raising hands such as full/Set/2P river. He doesn't value cut himself a lot.
Except if you have some read on him and that he is able to value cut himself it's a fold.

And btw bet bigger with ISO + FLOP + TURN + RIVER it's a fish you want to unstack him !

Detail of my analysis and filtering here https://www.grindlab.gg/fr/shared/60c07705-2147-4fe5-a5c6-e2f426e543ef

Does he limp AXhh?

Actually I would bet/fold smaller 25-50%.

Min betting as a needle to induce is another option. Also could check/evaluate if we know what his bet sizing means.