Fish on a Heater -> Crushing 200z

I feel like there are two reasons people may resort to using an RNG postflop.

1. They aren't sure if they should bet.

2. They aren't sure how often they should bet.

If you don't know whether or not you should be betting, then I would avoid using an RNG. Instead I'd try to find reasons for betting, i.e. what worse hands call (when value betting), what better hands fold (when bluffing), or do I need protection and will I gain protection by betting (with those medium hands).

Now if you just aren't sure how often you should be betting then I think using an RNG can be fine in some occasions if you aren't certain which action is actually the highest EV.

But I would definitely not RNG against fish.

BR $5950

Still mostly (75%?) 50nl and only 1.4k hands. I'll revise the volume goal to 250k as I don't think I'll play any fast fold.

So far I've been looking at XR in 3bps as I was missing a ton of those, and turn/river play after XR flop in SRP since it's easy for me to make big blunders there.

Can i ask why the rightmost 10ish% of the iggy graph looks like it does? Basically did you go on a heater and get called nonstop or did you adjust?

Yeah I wasn't really playing there since before this thread (busy sun running 30bb/100 at BetOnline 10z). I came back after a lot of study to play 50nl reg tables which were softer and I had table selecting, notes, and HUD stats. Strategy wise definitely went away from trying to induce aggression, more good/painful folds, calling a lot vs fish, and taking the obvious bluffs. Mostly godmoding of course but if I plug all the 50nl including Global into variance calc it's saying .002% chance if I'm breakeven. Not really overconfident I've been 75% studying since I don't want to keep playing 50nl with 120bi, but I don't see a big edge at 100nl without a fish.

Word, thx for reply. Makes sense

Catching up on your pgc and looks like you're really doing well. GL in 2024.

BR $5570, 2.9k hands today didn't play yesterday

Self-imposing two new rules:
6 tables at absolute most, I got to 9 briefly today and my game definitely suffered.
No playing lower than I'm rolled for. I'm 95% sure my $/h is higher at 50nl but I don't think I'll get to 200nl that way. Worst case I drop down at $3k which I'll be okay with as long as I'm meeting my goals in terms of improvement.

2nd session I did both. Was fun battling, I rarely see light calls so I'm going to assume they're overfolding and start really blasting in most spots. The flips were not in my favor but definitely bad plays like calling a river donk shove vs reg when the flush comes in. Overall 7/10, I do think I played quite fearlessly and was able to make the "uncomfortable" plays.

Will try the 100nl games on Iggy next session, goal before then is to make sure I'm finding all the cold 4bets, 4bets, and BB 3bets.

Thank you!

BR $6170

Didn't try Iggy, 4k hands today + yesterday 4-6 tabling

Kept at 100nl, even crushed 200nl for 30bb/100 over 20 hands

Fri/Sat games definitely better managed to keep 1-2 fish at each table

Studying was meh today didn't feel very focused, played well though and no mental game issues. Aggression definitely working hopefully they don't catch on. I really doubt they'll adjust to me overfolding certain river spots but some of the bluff lines I took I almost felt I should note they saw the showdown.

BR $6590

1.1k hands last couple days, caught some punts and definitely ran above AIEV. Some funny chat moments like getting berated by the biggest nit at 100 for 3betting A5s bvb. Not exactly sure how to counter them, I'm guessing 3b light+CB flop+giveup combo, folding anything but QQ+ AK maybe low pockets and connectors to their 3b.

Fairly busy but have almost nothing next week so 40k hands doable for Jan.

BR $6970, couldn't play much the past few days but 2.4k hands today

Down a few buyins and then an insane sunrun. Feel like I played well, plenty of nitty folds and good bluffs with meh/bad combos. There was someone playing very aggressive post (lots of huge river bets repping thin in a short # of hands but also 4x jamming flop, etc) I probably should've made a couple hero calls against.

Tried playing on Ignition but less hands/h and I didn't notice many fish

Pre/Flop are RNG, turn thought I'd XR less with Ah

BR $7340

Happy with how I've been playing but there's definitely room for more aggression

Will wait till $10k for 200nl

HH: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/69/on...

Subbed!I like that you dont force moving up fast to higher stake.Good bankroll managment is the key for longevity in this business.Gl on your journey.

BR $7940, at 27k hands for the month couldn't play much.

One hand my keyboard spazzed out and I 3bet to 99 instead of 9 with KJs, they tank fold haha. Must've spilled a bit of coffee or water but isopropyl alcohol seems to have fixed it. The other spew I didn't get so lucky, this guy donk triple barreled me with air then starts playing standard nitty and gets like 300bb from me before I see him giving up a normal bluff spot.

Sometimes I feel like I got caught red handed after some shenanigans, but this one reg/nit who plays a ton literally opens good hands to 3bb and everything else 2bb so maybe I can get away with more than I think.

Attemping the M part of MDA, should've gotten an SSD for this...

The drill setup, I'll do custom spots as well to practice probes/xr/delay usually

I've only been doing BB vs SB/BTN 3bp as BB, but a lot regs probably get close enough BvB pre

Thanks man, I haven't even had a $1k downswing, feel like I should lose more before 200nl

😮

hahaha yea man u need a SSD.

i dno how good ur HDD is, but ur probably gonna have problems when it comes to saving reports too...h2n super buggy and freezes when the reports are really big.

i had to make like 5+ different databases and then each database has like 3 individual reports, all of this was just to get the reports to save.

BR $7480

Games were kinda dead seems like Sunday nights aren't that good? Even had a 1knl GTO machine at a couple of my 100nl tables. Managing to get in some decent 200nl tables that's where the losses came from.

Got some very nice chips for the home game, host passes out on the couch after a few hours and an epic heads up match ensues. By the end we're fairly deep playing NLHE, PLO, even some PLO5 or pineapple. 10/10 lots of fun

Yeah that's exactly what happened, stats and report worked but it wouldn't save

BR $7870 2 tables of 200nl today both with fish on my right but otherwise tough lineup (two 2k regs). Good learning/growth experience at least.

January +$2490 ~33k hands

Less volume than December but probably more hours played. WR ~7bb/100 so less of a sunrun

Bought a 2tb SSD probably gonna need more ram

February goals:
28k hands
1$ profit
Become ok at HU
Have some grasp of 3bp exploits
Find the raises
At least 5k hands on Iggy

BR $8460, only 4k hands so far

Played a bit of Ignition yesterday after not generating rake for a while, they give me AA>AK twice and I win both. Definitely rigged

Gonna just measure BR in profit (not counting live earnings or GTO Wizard/coaching expenses), in for $780 so
+$7680

+$8260 feels like I've been running very well this month. At ~11k hands so a bit behind pace

I usually call light when someone bets big leaving just a bit behind, thinking they're trying to save a bit on a bluff. Seems to have worked but wanted to make sure

Bet river (jam)

Bet river (90-99% of eff. stack)

Fold freq is 10% (so never bluff here) which should add extra bias since bet folds won't get included in the weak %

The 26% weak comes from two sources:
(1) Villain calls
Weaker than the betting range since calling ranges typically block value and unblock bluffs
(2) Villain shoves & hero calls
Way stronger than the betting range since bluffs should fold

Formula for correcting, x is just what % of the shown range comes from (1) :
x = (villain call) / (villain call + (villain raise * hero call raise))
Shown weak = (x * weak when villain calls) + ((1-x) * weak when hero calls)

B-X-B for example you'd need hero B-X-BC, villain C-X-C %, and villain C-X-R %. Probably fine in a lot of spots to assume villain defends MDF and hero calls 0% weak. Raise it might actually be better to just use a similar line's raise % to not run into sample size issues.

Probably <1% here but it seems like it could account for up to -3% weak in spots

This should apply to every non all-in river spot right?

Right after I post this I thought of adding Villain calls to the H2N stats. Luckily it actually works and doesn't just show villains calling range. Sure enough the "gets called" range is 2% weaker. Bet sizing tab is blank unfortunately.

You're absolutely killing it man, at this rate you're gonna be playing high stakes by the end of the year. You have such an impressive understanding of the game for someone who's been playing for less than a year

+$8960, was sick the past week so only at 15k hands

Mostly new PC. Was looking at Pio 3.0 and saw they had a nice developer interface so planning to run my own sims. New feature https://piosolver.com/blog/2023-12-28-in... , should be way easier than node locking for scripting but not sure how I'd use it past flop.

Overclocking didn't really work, CPU and fan speed just drops after a few seconds at full load even though core temps are low.

Annoying H2N moment:

Would be nice to have a stats for exactly 50%, 75%, 100% pot so the alpha and bluff % could be known. I think what's happening is that HH formats don't show the flop/turn/river pot size or the rake structure so H2N can't know what half pot is post rake.

+$8900, +$1810 for February

+$1650 on Global,14k hands. Been playing app games probably 6k hands but HUD hasn't been working well.

One is 7max 150bb 0.3bb ante with 20% minimum VPIP. There's a lot of hyper-aggressive fish with >30% 3-bet which is interesting to play against, but they certainly make it hard to hit 20% VPIP. Rake is ~4bb/100 post-RB.

Other is normal 7max, mostly Asian players which is nice since peak hours are different. 25/50 comes out to $0.71/$1.42 and rake is 1.5bb/100 post-RB. Way nittier game and the regs are a lot better.

Withdrew my balance from Ignition, doesn't really seem worth it to play without RB. Hopefully they can turn things around but it looks pretty bleak for 500nl+.

I feel like anonymity is more of a shield for my opponents than myself since they're generally bad at recognizing and exploiting imbalances. Even though I get pretty out of line I'm probably still more balanced especially before the river.

1. Either fold turn or call river is probably better

2. I don't like it, our blockers aren't as good as they look. They did show fold A8o though

3. I don't think raise > call here, and not folding to Mr. 44 PFR

Thanks man!

+$9750, 7k hands this month haven't had much time for poker

Some maybe questionable hands:

Vulnerable overpairs like 88 really want to bet flop here. We obviously need to be selective with our betting range overall, but this is a slam dunk bet, IMO.