$25----->25k Bankroll Challenge on Ignition
I am going to be starting with $25 in my Ignition Account and try to spin it up to $25,000.
I will start at 5nl since it is the lowest stake on the site and be playing Ignition Reg tables only.
I will be updating every 5k hands with my progress.
My expectation for each limit is as follows:
Expected Winrates for each limit:
5NL: 30bb/100
10NL: 25bb/100
25NL: 20bb/100
50NL: 15bb/100
100NL: 12bb/100
200NL: 10bb/100
Variance will be a decent factor in a lot of these winrates but these are just ball park numbers. Once I hit 25k I will take a 10buyin shot at 500nl! As far as moving up I'll move up whenever I feel like it, but probably after winning 30-40 buyins at the limit.
There will be no cherry picking here since you can't cherry pick a Bankroll Challenge. Wish me luck (or not) and follow along in this thread.
I don't have B250 data (not sure anyone has big samples on it but maybe) but we know vs X-F120 they overfold.
I think it is going to be close to MDF OTR in the aggregate but very player dependent vs the P250-Jam3x line.
Some players will always call their AQ and then others will always fold. I need to test out this theory so this is all just pure speculation from me.
Sick hand if I'm reading it correctly. You had a set of 99 and he turned top two right? and then you OB turn/jam river.
I think the hu
Yeah haha I usually slowplay more value on turn because of the overfold to probes but I decided to go for it on the A high flop since my perception is that regs check back flop w more showdown compared to other boards. I feel like regs will overfold turn to P250 since they have probably too much middling hands like 2nd pair/KK/QQ/JJ here and fold almost pure, but once it gets to the river i think they will overcall their top range (2pair/tpgk) slightly and lack autofolds like Tx that partially calls turn. I don't rly know if x or b huge is higher ev on turn tbh so I'll mix it up here.
I feel like I stationed alot on iggy when I go massive in these srp pots on river maybe because some weaker regs think I could be a whale blasting? not sure
Okay this spot is kind of common and needs to be studied.
SBvsBB SRP Data
C30-B150-B is a weaker line than C30-B70-B
C30-B70-B
C30-B150-B
Let's look at filters and make some educated guesses.
We know C30-B70-B is 34 weak overall.
Now compare this to paired turn filters. Look how much the flop texture matters.
So don't bluff catch this hand
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HJ ($30.08) [VPIP: 21.9% | PFR: 6.3% | AGG: 11.1% | Hands: 33]
CO ($51.44) [VPIP: 21.3% | PFR: 19.1% | AGG: 17.7% | Hands: 336]
BTN ($38.34) [VPIP: 31.3% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 18.2% | Hands: 33]
HERO ($33.19) [VPIP: 28.1% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 38.2% | Flop Agg: 40.9% | Turn Agg: 35.3% | 3Bet: 10.5% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Hands: 124910]
BB ($27.34) [VPIP: 25.7% | PFR: 21.3% | AGG: 46.6% | Flop Agg: 45.2% | Turn Agg: 45.5% | 3Bet: 11.2% | 4Bet: 8% | Cold Call: 9.7% | Hands: 626]
Dealt to Hero: K♠ A♦
HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $0.75, BB Calls $0.50
Hero SPR on Flop: [17.73 effective]
Flop ($1.50): 4♣ Q♦ 6♣
HERO Bets $0.37 (Rem. Stack: $32.07), BB Calls $0.37 (Rem. Stack: $26.22)
Turn ($2.24): 4♣ Q♦ 6♣ 4♥
HERO Checks, BB Bets $3.36 (Rem. Stack: $22.86), HERO Calls $3.36
River ($9.96): 4♣ Q♦ 6♣ 4♥ 9♦
HERO checks, BB Bets $8.00, HERO ?
But do bluff catch this hand
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HJ ($30.08) [VPIP: 21.9% | PFR: 6.3% | AGG: 11.1% | Hands: 33]
CO ($51.44) [VPIP: 21.3% | PFR: 19.1% | AGG: 17.7% | Hands: 336]
BTN ($38.34) [VPIP: 31.3% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 18.2% | Hands: 33]
HERO ($33.19) [VPIP: 28.1% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 38.2% | Flop Agg: 40.9% | Turn Agg: 35.3% | 3Bet: 10.5% | 4Bet: 12.1% | Hands: 124910]
BB ($27.34) [VPIP: 25.7% | PFR: 21.3% | AGG: 46.6% | Flop Agg: 45.2% | Turn Agg: 45.5% | 3Bet: 11.2% | 4Bet: 8% | Cold Call: 9.7% | Hands: 626]
Dealt to Hero: K♠ A♦
HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $0.75, BB Calls $0.50
Hero SPR on Flop: [17.73 effective]
Flop ($1.50): 4♣ 9♦ 6♣
HERO Bets $0.37 (Rem. Stack: $32.07), BB Calls $0.37 (Rem. Stack: $26.22)
Turn ($2.24): 4♣ 9♦ 6♣ 4♥
HERO Checks, BB Bets $3.36 (Rem. Stack: $22.86), HERO Calls $3.36
River ($9.96): 4♣ 9♦ 6♣ 4♥ 2♦
HERO checks, BB Bets $8.00, HERO ?
Makes sense as BB has more nutted broadway pairs that want river crycalls whereas on 964tt (which contains zero straights, surprisingly) it's more dynamic/speculative and thus a cheap bluff becomes more appealing.
Perhaps general trend boils down to humans being humans and naturally exploiting tendencies of each other to overcall the smaller sizing and overfold the larger. And with even fish fearing lost value tilt the effect works (presumably) for both fish and reg alike?
I guess that's the correct gto adjustment too vs these general pool expectations. WP fish and reg alike.
I was going to have some sort of schedule with the YT videos but it makes more sense to just release them whenever.
Video #2.
Bluff gone bad
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
and Database SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($25) [VPIP: 20.3% | PFR: 16.2% | AGG: 34.8% | Hands: 2029]
SB ($51.54) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 13]
BB ($27.56) [VPIP: 23.8% | PFR: 18% | AGG: 32.8% | Flop Agg: 34.2% | Turn Agg: 36.1% | River Agg: 31% | 3Bet: 8.3% | 4Bet: 11.9% | Cold Call: 12.9% | Hands: 1400]
HERO ($36.60) [VPIP: 28.1% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 38.1% | Flop Agg: 40.8% | Turn Agg: 35.3% | River Agg: 41.6% | 3Bet: 10.6% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 125420]
HJ ($25) [VPIP: 21.4% | PFR: 9.6% | AGG: 62.1% | Hands: 1497]
CO ($32.51) [VPIP: 18.5% | PFR: 15.1% | AGG: 39.3% | Hands: 124]
Dealt to Hero: J♥ K♦
HERO Raises To $0.50, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.25
Hero SPR on Flop: [24.6 effective]
Flop ($1.10): J♠ 9♣ K♣
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.55 (Rem. Stack: $35.55), BB Calls $0.55 (Rem. Stack: $26.51)
Turn ($2.20): J♠ 9♣ K♣ 2♣
BB Bets $1.65 (Rem. Stack: $24.86), HERO Calls $1.65 (Rem. Stack: $33.90)
River ($5.50): J♠ 9♣ K♣ 2♣ 9♠
BB Bets $6.87 (Rem. Stack: $17.99), HERO Raises To $33.90 (allin), BB Calls $17.99 (allin)
Spoiler
BB shows: 7♣ 5♣
BB wins: $52.46
Value gone good
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
SB ($31.27) [VPIP: 82% | PFR: 22% | AGG: 25.8% | Flop Agg: 37.5% | Turn Agg: 23.1% | River Agg: 11.1% | 3Bet: 15.8% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 73.7% | Hands: 52]
BB ($23.11) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 19.1% | AGG: 28.1% | Hands: 137]
UTG ($25) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 14% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 127]
HJ ($28.33) [VPIP: 15.8% | PFR: 15.8% | AGG: 30.8% | Hands: 20]
HERO ($78.01) [VPIP: 28.1% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 38.1% | Flop Agg: 40.8% | Turn Agg: 35.3% | River Agg: 41.6% | 3Bet: 10.6% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 125420]
BTN ($26.26) [VPIP: 18.2% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 44.4% | Hands: 78]
Dealt to Hero: 8♦ J♦
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, HERO Raises To $0.50, BTN Folds, SB Calls $0.40, BB Folds
Hero SPR on Flop: [24.62 effective]
Flop ($1.25): 7♦ A♦ 4♠
SB Checks, HERO Bets $0.62 (Rem. Stack: $76.89), SB Calls $0.62 (Rem. Stack: $30.15)
Turn ($2.49): 7♦ A♦ 4♠ J♥
SB Checks, HERO Checks
River ($2.49): 7♦ A♦ 4♠ J♥ Q♦
SB Checks, HERO Bets $76.89 (allin), SB Calls $30.15 (allin)
Spoiler
SB shows: 5♥ A♥
HERO wins: $59.79
If you are against regs and theory ever plays for stacks. Play for stacks.
Versus fish we always play for stacks with value.
I'm enjoying the videos... except that there is something weird going on with the mic/volume.
The mic volume is constantly going from normal to low back to normal in the middle of sentences, which is kind of annoying.
I would also turn off all the annoying sounds from the poker client.
I'm enjoying the videos... except that there is something weird going on with the mic/volume.
The volume is constantly going from normal to low back to normal in the middle of sentences, which is kind of annoying.
I would also turn off all the annoying sounds from the poker client.
Yeah you’re right I need to fix this. I keep adjusting my mic during the video. Thanks Zamadhi.
Yeah good idea about turning off all the sounds from the poker client. They just distract from the commentary.
I have a cool idea I might do for the next video but it will be a bit time consuming.
I want to start making compilation videos for certain spots. So basically have a 4BP/3BP compilation where it’s only those types of pots or like XR-B-B compilation video for SRP.
I think this will help people if they are studying certain spots and maybe want to get some ideas.
Thanks for the feedback.
Video #3.
In the future I'm going to turn off game play notifications and be more conscious of my microphone.
I won't post another video after this for awhile as I am going to be getting footage for longer compilation videos at 25nl blitz where we go over specific spots in game and I give MDA analysis on the spot.
Here is a 4bet pot compilation video, although it is only 3 spots.
Watched vid 1. Really nice content. Once you learn how to edit and stuff, you'll do well making content.
Okay guys normalize this play in your arsenal, especially against wider formations.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($24.30) [VPIP: 28% | PFR: 24% | AGG: 62.5% | Flop Agg: 66.7% | Turn Agg: 66.7% | 3Bet: 10% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 27]
SB ($26.77) [VPIP: 26.5% | PFR: 23.6% | AGG: 35.2% | Hands: 379]
BB ($25) [VPIP: 26.1% | PFR: 13% | AGG: 17.6% | Hands: 23]
HERO ($25.35) [VPIP: 28.1% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 38.1% | Flop Agg: 40.8% | Turn Agg: 35.3% | 3Bet: 10.6% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 125504]
CO ($30.58) [VPIP: 20.1% | PFR: 18% | AGG: 31.6% | Hands: 143]
Dealt to Hero: 4♥ 4♦
HERO Raises To $0.50, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $1.50, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $1
Hero SPR on Flop: [6.81 effective]
Flop ($3.35): T♦ T♥ 2♣
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $1.67 (Rem. Stack: $21.13), HERO Calls $1.67 (Rem. Stack: $22.18)
Turn ($6.69): T♦ T♥ 2♣ A♠
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $3.34 (Rem. Stack: $17.79), HERO Raises To $7.38 (Rem. Stack: $14.80), BTN Folds
Spoiler
HERO wins: $12.71
Okay guys normalize this play in your arsenal, especially against wider formations.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($24.30) [VPIP: 28% | PFR: 24% | AGG: 62.5% | Flop Agg: 66.7% | Turn Agg: 66.7% | 3Bet: 10% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 27]
SB ($26.77) [VPIP: 26.5% | PFR: 23.6% | AGG: 35.2% | Hands: 379]
BB ($25) [VPIP: 26.1% | PFR: 13% | AGG: 17.6% | Hands: 23]
HERO ($25.35)
Nice check/raise on the TURN on a scare card.
Perfectly executed.
Okay guys normalize this play in your arsenal, especially against wider formations.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($24.30) [VPIP: 28% | PFR: 24% | AGG: 62.5% | Flop Agg: 66.7% | Turn Agg: 66.7% | 3Bet: 10% | Fold to 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 27]
SB ($26.77) [VPIP: 26.5% | PFR: 23.6% | AGG: 35.2% | Hands: 379]
BB ($25) [VPIP: 26.1% | PFR: 13% | AGG: 17.6% | Hands: 23]
HERO ($25.35)
Wouldn't work at higher stakes
2.5x probe spot for OOP OTT.
Solver has a 0% XR range in theory vs my delayed cbet sizing.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
and Database SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($45.51) [VPIP: 28.1% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 38.1% | Flop Agg: 40.7% | Turn Agg: 35.3% | 3Bet: 10.6% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 126341]
SB ($25.55) [VPIP: 21.9% | PFR: 19.4% | AGG: 34.6% | Hands: 529]
BB ($27.83) [VPIP: 16% | PFR: 14.8% | AGG: 27.6% | Flop Agg: 28.6% | Turn Agg: 40% | 3Bet: 8.3% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 2.3% | Hands: 179]
UTG ($18.86) [VPIP: 40% | PFR: 40% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 5]
HJ ($21.35) [VPIP: 50% | PFR: 30.6% | AGG: 7.1% | Hands: 39]
CO ($25) [VPIP: 22% | PFR: 17.7% | AGG: 41.9% | Hands: 598]
Dealt to Hero: K♣ A♠
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.60, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.35
Hero SPR on Flop: [20.95 effective]
Flop ($1.30): 6♣ 6♠ 9♣
BB Checks, HERO Checks
Turn ($1.30): 6♣ 6♠ 9♣ A♥
BB Checks, HERO Bets $1.50 (Rem. Stack: $43.41), BB Raises To $7.86 (Rem. Stack: $19.37), HERO Folds
Spoiler
BB wins: $4.09
Look how insane this is. If BB goes 2.5x OTT AKo turns in a 0EV call.
How many people fold AKo OTT vs a 2.5x probe? I would say almost nobody, what do you guys think?
I actually think most regs would fold more Ax than the solver does vs 2.5x pot. Not to mention hands like 9x and 88/77/55/44. At least I would.
A micro reg betting 2.5x on that turn screams: "I have 6x and pray that you hit something like AK on the turn"
I actually think most regs would fold more Ax than the solver does vs 2.5x pot. At least I would.
A micro reg betting 2.5x on that turn screams: "I have 6x and pray that you hit something like AK on the turn"
Interesting.
I think it’s the opposite. If a micro reg knows the spot so well that he picks the correct probe sizing then he is weighted towards bluffs.
I would expect majority of 25nl blitz pool to be what, weak/passive-ish reg in general?
I think weak reg will overfold. I also think anything north of super station will overfold. This is a sick line.
Donk jam here lol what.
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2
SoftwareNL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BTN ($34.16) [VPIP: 22.1% | PFR: 17.8% | AGG: 40.9% | Flop Agg: 42.6% | Turn Agg: 35% | 3Bet: 9.3% | 4Bet: 7.1% | Fold to 4Bet: 100% | Hands: 608]
SB ($33.52) [VPIP: 21.4% | PFR: 20% | AGG: 41.5% | Hands: 221]
HERO ($30) [VPIP: 28.1% | PFR: 23.5% | AGG: 38.1% | Flop Agg: 40.7% | Turn Agg: 35.3% | 3Bet: 10.6% | Fold to 3Bet: 56.1% | 4Bet: 12.2% | Hands: 126415]
UTG ($26.34) [VPIP: 18.2% | PFR: 16.2% | AGG: 25.7% | Hands: 209]
HJ ($51.55) [VPIP: 17.2% | PFR: 12.1% | AGG: 29.1% | Hands: 736]
CO ($31.48) [VPIP: 20.9% | PFR: 17.1% | AGG: 34.8% | Hands: 2802]
Dealt to Hero: T♣ K♣
UTG Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $0.62, SB Folds, HERO Raises To $3.16, BTN Raises To $6.30, HERO Calls $3.14
Hero SPR on Flop: [1.87 effective]
Flop ($12.70): 7♥ Q♣ J♣
HERO ?
iPoker - €0.20 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BB: 166.3 BB (VPIP: 34.15, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 85)
UTG: 83.65 BB (VPIP: 47.95, PFR: 2.74, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 76)
MP: 199.6 BB (VPIP: 23.21, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 6.38, Hands: 170)
CO: 150.55 BB (VPIP: 21.48, PFR: 14.77, 3Bet Preflop: 13.08, Hands: 303)
Hero (BTN): 100 BB
SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 13)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ac 7c
fold, fold, CO raises to 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 5 BB
Flop : (16.5 BB, 2 players) Qh Ks 9c
CO checks, Hero bets 5.45 BB, CO calls 5.45 BB
Turn : (27.4 BB, 2 players) Qs
CO checks, Hero checks
River : (27.4 BB, 2 players) 3s
CO bets 41.1 BB, hero ???
Is there any way we can find a profitable jam here OTR? I know for sure any AsT or AsJ can do it, but can we find a profitable jam with pretty much all of our AX's here based on MDF? To me Villains B150 sizing OTR river looked very polarized and really wanted to jam almost ATC without SDV.
If you want to bluff this hand then triple off. A7cc blocks AQs which is good.
I'd just fold preflop though vs this nit.
In the data I have it looks like this line is pretty close to GTO overall and the FCR BDFD data point makes it underbluffed.
