2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
The markets didn't have Trump much higher in 2016 than the polls did. My recollection is that Trump consistently traded between .19 and .22 on PredictIt during the month before the election.
Ill take a look tomorrow when I get time but I'm pretty sure, and ill check some pms to see but I think you had a 2+2er offering 2-1 odds for very large amounts and I remember checking the markets and it showing very similar odds, at least at that particular time.
I believe 538 was around 25-30% and a lot of people scoffed at it because the polls were so ****ed up.
nate silver's defense against his ~30ish% trump odds was that it was better than the market's 20%. that was my memory as well - i recall taking comfort in the fact clinton was 80%ish on pinnacle until the evening of the election when early results led to swift movements
nate silver's defense against his ~30ish% trump odds was that it was better than the market's 20%. that was my memory as well - i recall taking comfort in the fact clinton was 80%ish on pinnacle until the evening of the election when early results led to swift movements
It ranged in the neighborhood of 2-1. I glanced back at the 2016 thread and I was arguing with one of Trolly's alts two days before the election and Trump was right around 30% in the largest market.
11-6-16
wil318466
Lol at an anonymous dildo moron from a troll account who has had zero accountability for anything ever demanding an apology from another poster.
The REAL Trolly
Gtfo, you dont even have the balls to post from a real account.
I make really dumb gimmick accounts, you blow hundreds of dollars betting on Trump at the worst possible time. On the balance, I feel okay about myself.
formula72
Wil didn't blow any money yet, Holmes. I prefer the other side of the bet, but those who claim that it's FREE MONEY are making a statement of stupidity.
Those were fun times.
It's almost meh to call Trump and his clan down on any point of fact or reality or inconsistency. That's not how this works. 😀 Lying is inherent to politics, but reality is adjourned in the fascist game plan. So you can't say, "Yeah but that isn't true." They said it because it isn't true, is red meat, is propaganda, etc.
I wonder what those who were pseudo scoffing at the fascist angle think about his former Joint Chief coming out and saying he's pure fascist to the core? I mean, that's just a regular part of politics, right? Probably a conspiracy against him. No problem. The rapist, fraudster, felon, cheat, stupid narcissist Christian is our man! So be it.
the fact that elon is doing the exact things that the entire republican base was pulling their hair out at the mere thought of the old twitter doing it is so on brand. like the freezepeach people were having conniptions that twitter may have slowed a story they thought was false, and now you had elon communicating with the campaign and suspending a guy and removing a story that was negative to trump and it's crickets..
Of all the dishonest tricks in the MAGA playbook the free speech boogeyman is BY FAR the most dishonest/destructive
Leon has made no secret that his existence relative to Twitter (since he got snapcalled into buying it and proceeded to turn it into an unprofitable cesspool) is to prop up the far right since, like trump, they’re the people most likely to suck his dick. Without following a single person on Twitter, and regardless of who and what you block, your feed will be littered with far right propagandists and Leon himself no matter how many times you block him
Which is his right, it’s a privately owned company he controls, if he wants to use it as a far right megaphone who is anyone to say otherwise
Which naturally makes it all the more laughable that the far right claims OMFG CENSORSHIP LIBERAL BIAS SHADOWBAN TWITTER FILES etc etc etc and now are perfectly cool with a massive partisan lean that includes Leon indiscriminately banning anyone that is critical of his cause d’jour or his super weird instaban for saying the word ‘cisgender’
The far right will also peddle on Fox News, newsmax, OAN, etc etc how they aren’t allowed to say the inflammatory things they’re saying on tv, their podcasts, their rallies, etc with their gullible bukkake recipients completely ignoring that the fact they’re hearing these things from people who are being paid to say it and aren’t in prison probably means your first amendment rights aren’t being infringed are they?
Meanwhile trump wants you to be jailed if you criticize a SCOTUS Justice, which, as far as I can tell, is literally a violation of free speech and is the a presidential candidate advocating for your 1st amendment rights to be ripped from you
It’s always been about one side demanding they be held to no social consequence and Rosanne Barr being allowed to say some evil **** about Jews without losing her job for it. That’s the far right idea of free speech. That the most hateful, bigoted **** and absurd lies can be said in the mainstream without repercussion. Simultaneously anything said that offends their sensibilities should be nuked out of existence and punished to the fullest extent available or to be created
the fact that elon is doing the exact things that the entire republican base was pulling their hair out at the mere thought of the old twitter doing it is so on brand. like the freezepeach people were having conniptions that twitter may have slowed a story they thought was false, and now you had elon communicating with the campaign and suspending a guy and removing a story that was negative to trump and it's crickets..
I think it has more to do with how it was attained. Seems like Iran and Russia both want Harris as the President . Though I personally think it should be released.
Some more info about one of the things I posted yesterday while I was at work. One of the reasons I'm not worried about polling showing Trump doing better recently:
As polls seem to indicate that former president Donald Trump has momentum in some swing states with 24 days remaining until the Nov. 5 presidential election, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg says: Don’t buy it.
About a month ago, Rosenberg predicted that a slew of polls by Republican organizations would flood the zone, showing Trump leading — and, like clockwork, it has happened.
lol, kamala a bich....and still 1000000x better than your orange god
The whole "social media needs to be an ideology free safe space where anybody can accuse anybody of anything and the site should not interfere" went away pretty quickly after someone who would ban Trump critical posting took control.
Another example is republican written citizen verification voting requirement in AZ. Democrats correctly pointed out that non citizen votes can be counted on your hands and this new proposal would make it so 10s of thousands of eligible voters would not be able to vote. Republicans disagreed.......until data came out and showed that that the voters disenfranchised skewed republican. So now they joined in trying to undo thi.... Obviously the non citizen voting hoax is not something they actually believe, but just a means to prevent US citizens who vote Dem from voting.
Long term, this is becoming a big problem with the right. Reaganism sort of failed and succeeded at the same time. The era of FDR is definitely over. But right wing economic policy hasn't really helped regular people all that much. If you're in a bubble, where everyone you know is educated and in tech, finance, law medicine etc and has 7 figures in the market it's easy to forget how little the median and lower middle class voter has improved since 1980.
Good. Hopefully you never respond to another one of my posts again. I will however continue to lightly troll you and lol again at thinking Democrats are the left.
Are you allowed to defend yourself on the left or would that be pro-war?
Is selling/gifting bullets pro-war? Is trolling/provocation? 😀
fwiw Imo you're both partly right. Sure both parties can be characterized as right in a sense on the theoretical level. But politics is never happening on the ground in the theory realm. In practice the parties are always going to be left and right relative to one another. So it's not wrong to call the Ds the left here even if you can make a solid argument they may be right-leaning elsewhere.
the fact that elon is doing the exact things that the entire republican base was pulling their hair out at the mere thought of the old twitter doing it is so on brand. like the freezepeach people were having conniptions that twitter may have slowed a story they thought was false, and now you had elon communicating with the campaign and suspending a guy and removing a story that was negative to trump and it's crickets..
Of all the dishonest tricks in the MAGA playbook the free speech boogeyman is BY FAR the most dishonest/destructive
Leon has made no secret that his existence relative to Twitter (since he got snapcalled into buying it and proceeded to turn it into an unprofitable cesspool) is to prop up the far right since, like trump, they’re the people most likely to suck his dick. Without following a single person on Twitter, and regardless of who and what you block, your feed will be littered with far right
I have nothing to add to these two posts except to say thank God there are some sane people on this forum who can see what a giant hypocrite Elon is. Elon is like what the right wing accuses George Soros and old Twitter of being on steroids. It’s completely within his right to do everything that he is doing but it’s disgusting how the right-wing collectively memoryholes their principles whenever it’s convenient.
Might be better suited in the IQ thread, but here is JD Vance trying to fix his camera displaying the text behind him inverted by flipping his camera upside down.
https://old.reddit.com/r/TikTokCringe/co...
Jfc
I have nothing to add to these two posts except to say thank God there are some sane people on this forum who can see what a giant hypocrite Elon is. Elon is like what the right wing accuses George Soros and old Twitter of being on steroids. It’s completely within his right to do everything that he is doing but it’s disgusting how the right-wing collectively memoryholes their principles whenever it’s convenient.
Of course .
It’s the core principle of Maga and Republican .
We love freedom for us only , not for other people.
Real freedom is only about what we like .
Free speech is good for Elon but not for soros ( or any scarecrow that isn’t far right ideology)
Of course .
It’s the core principle of Maga and Republican .
We love freedom for us only , not for other people.
Real freedom is only about what we like .
Free speech is good for Elon but not for soros ( or any scarecrow that isn’t far right ideology)
Yep. I'm not equating to the left and the right but at least the far far left-wing is honest about "no bad tactics, only bad targets". They are 100% ok with coups, political imprisonment, taking away free speech, etc, as long as it serves their broader egalitarian purposes. Whereas the far right-wing likes to pretend they have a principled stance for freedom of speech, lack of coordination with political campaigns, and against deplatforming or intellectual freedom on social media platforms.
But yeah, Tucker Carlson admitting to lying on his platform to his audience because he was afraid of being seen as disloyal to Trump, and bringing on someone who personally knew Trump who he knew was lying? No problem whatsoever. That's worse than anything that the mainstream media has been accused of doing.
Are you allowed to defend yourself on the left or would that be pro-war?
Is selling/gifting bullets pro-war? Is trolling/provocation? 😀
fwiw Imo you're both partly right. Sure both parties can be characterized as right in a sense on the theoretical level. But politics is never happening on the ground in the theory realm. In practice the parties are always going to be left and right relative to one another. So it's not wrong to call the Ds the left here even if you can make a solid argument they
This is of course mostly nonsense. If the Republicans were like "let's be Pure Hitler" and the Democrats were like "ok we like Hitler too but just a little less of him" would you still put them on the left?
You sort of assume that we have two parties who work in opposition to each other which of course we do not-- in almost all areas concerning foreign policy they're completely in lock step.
This is of course mostly nonsense. If the Republicans were like "let's be Pure Hitler" and the Democrats were like "ok we like Hitler too but just a little less of him" would you still put them on the left?
You sort of assume that we have two parties who work in opposition to each other which of course we do not-- in almost all areas concerning foreign policy they're completely in lock step.
Eh, there's factions and warring power structures between and within the parties. AOC is largely balked at by more centrist Dems and the Cheney family (shudder) endorses Democrat candidates instead of Trump.
Eh, there's factions and warring power structures between and within the parties. AOC is largely balked at by more centrist Dems and the Cheney family (shudder) endorses Democrat candidates instead of Trump.
Cheney siding with the Democrats over Trump goes more towards my argument than any other and AOC has been on the covers of Time and Newsweek and on Jimmey Kimmel enough to negate whatever supposed animosity some Democrats might have for her.
Cheney siding with the Democrats over Trump goes more towards my argument than any other and AOC has been on the covers of Time and Newsweek and on Jimmey Kimmel enough to negate whatever supposed animosity some Democrats might have for her.
If your argument is there is a uniparty then I agree. It's possible the perceived differences I described are mostly cosmetic.
Can we substantively look at who is voting with who instead of just looking at the optics of the situation? Liz Cheney voted in line with Trump on nearly everything. The only reason she stopped supporting him was because he tried to steal an election.
There are substantive policy differences between Democrats and Republicans. The “uniparty” stuff is either libertarian or socialist cope for why their policies aren’t more popular. When people have a choice between Green or Dem or Rep or Libertarian, people rarely choose Green.
If you want to talk about election reforms or something, that’s an actual substantive topic we can all have a discussion on, but the thought terminating cliches focused on optics aren’t really able to further any political dialogue. Dick Cheney doesn’t endorse Kamala because he has some huge agreement with her on policy, we can look at his administration to see that. He’s endorsing her because he sees Trump as a threat to America, because he tried to steal an election. Most sane Republicans are against people stealing elections.
I have nothing to add to these two posts except to say thank God there are some sane people on this forum who can see what a giant hypocrite Elon is. Elon is like what the right wing accuses George Soros and old Twitter of being on steroids. It’s completely within his right to do everything that he is doing but it’s disgusting how the right-wing collectively memoryholes their principles whenever it’s convenient.
I was on board early on and created a Twitter account when he took over. A few months later, I was out. From censoring users and journalists to the CEO hire; from the algorithm spamming me with posts from Wall Street Silver, Clown World and a slew of right wing bots to his awful Tweets, it became clear his actions weren't lining up with his "views." He's obviously an intelligent person, so when he posts dumbed down, inflammatory comments that are sure to cause an uproar—only to clarify what he [says he] means later—he knows what he's doing. With that said, free Rosanne!
Which is his right, it’s a privately owned company he controls, if he wants to use it as a far right megaphone who is anyone to say otherwise
Which naturally makes it all the more laughable that the far right claims OMFG CENSORSHIP LIBERAL BIAS SHADOWBAN TWITTER FILES etc etc etc and now are perfectly cool with a massive partisan lean that includes Leon indiscriminately banning anyone that is critical of his cause d’jour or his super weird instaban for saying the word ‘cisgender
hate elon as much as the next guy but i don't see the hypocrisy in this. government funded covert censorship campaigns forced on unwilling private platforms with threat of ratcheting regulations if they don't comply is uniquely different than "rich guy buys media asset to control the narrative on the platform he now owns". if we lived in an alternate universe where twitter files were perpetrated by GOP admin to pursue their agenda it'd be the biggest story of the year and win all the pulitzers.
Can we substantively look at who is voting with who instead of just looking at the optics of the situation? Liz Cheney voted in line with Trump on nearly everything. The only reason she stopped supporting him was because he tried to steal an election.
There are substantive policy differences between Democrats and Republicans. The “uniparty” stuff is either libertarian or socialist cope for why their policies aren’t more popular. When people have a choice between Green or Dem or Rep or Libertarian
Are you really here arguing that Dick Cheney cares about democracy?
Perhaps you're too young to remember the 2000 election.
