2024 ELECTION THREAD

Between the time that I first looked on predictit a couple hours ago and now Kamala has gone from .58c to .63c in Wisconsin. Damn...

Only didn't pull the trigger then because I needed to upload my id and I was feeling lazy...

C'mon! Who doesn't want more children who hate them?

The cope in here as people are starting to realize I've been right the whole time is amusing.

while 538 has shown it to be closer than it was a week ago, what i said above still stands, either trump legit gets rung out to dry and gets blown out way worse than in 2020 or some of these polsters have an insane agenda and risking credibility.

according to polls trump never wins more than 300+ unless we are back in 2016 polling

If you think Trump isn't going to win the election or get over 300 I can't help you. But I'll be back here for the train wreck when he does.

while i think she def overshot some of her polling i still think she is correct that Iowa is closer than ever before and her putting her reputation on the line is a big statement. I dont thin kits the biden +12 WI from NYT or whatever from 2020.

I do wonder if harris team knew about this I thought they would have been there in the last few days though?

nate sivler is correct tho, Iowa is a nothingburger, PA/M Iis where this election is at and whoever wins Iowa is wining those states regardless.

atlas pol lbeing released today I assume is why 538 still has it closer than it was on oct 13

if he wins its not 300. what path gives him 300?

I dont think atlas is corect saying he wins all swing states Edit* that hes currently ahed in all swing states. I woudl say he has a WAY better shot at PA than MI

You can bet Kamala on robinhood if you've got an account there and you don't have to pay a 5% withdrawal fee.

Were you also the same guy saying there is a video of the Pope disappearing?

I have no clue who the **** you are but

Yes, im sure

He'll win all the swing states.

That's fine if you don't believe it. I'm piling money down with better odds.

He's not ahead in the polls in all swing states, sure. But he's already shown in two election cycles that he doesn't need the polls.

The fact that many polls being released showing Harris up in these states are a sign of panic from liberals so that people still go out and vote. What we saw last week with Trump leading all of them is more of a reality what is actually going to happen.

And he's definitely not down in North Carolina. If you think she's going to win that state you're crazy.

538 is as recent as yesterday and the shift in betting odds has been massive since that point

I agree though that there’s either a disconnect in polling or kamala wins in an absolute landslide and that there is no 3rd option

Haha ok. This thread will be fun in 3 days. See ya guys then hope you're still here for your meltdown.

You dont panic people into voting by saying you're winning.

Lol 538 being accurate. Babahaha

Saying you're winning in polls is different than actually saying you're winning.

pretty much crushed the snl open

If he loses all the swing states will you think the election was rigged?

The kneejerk fistpumping/panic I'm seeing elsewhere over the Selzer poll is the American electorate at its finest. Just absolute cluelessness regarding the limitations of polling, and way too much focus on the people administrating them.

It's one poll that notably deviates from other polls and recent history. It's somewhat respectable that they're (apparently) not interested in trying to massage the result to be more consistent with the herd, which some pollsters are clearly doing. So sure it's worth a mention and belongs in the data set, not excluded as an outlier, but it's still just one poll of 800 people. It could very easily be one of those 1 in 20 cases outside the margin of error entirely.

lmao similar thing happened to me, I was going to put 1k down at 32% but was too lazy to buy bitcoin…

The big question is if Kamala is really surging, then what changed? Are people suddenly changing their minds, and if so why? Or was the polling off and they did something to correct it?

I still bought her at .64 so now I need some Trump action.

If Trump wins there won't be a train wreck. Everyone will deny they thought Kamila would win.

he doesnt need the polls and I dont think its a sign of panic. I do think it says somthing that one of the weaker candidates polling wise before harris was nominated(talking about harris) is doing so well into trump, its a sign of weakness from the republican party, any other republican, mccain, romney, etc that they usually put out would have crushed this election but the fact he cant shake harris is quite telling of where the party is at.

its obvious what i said that eitehr harris wins in alandslide or what you said hte polling is way way off, I actually trust the polling in PA/MI where its extremely tight in PA and hes behind in MI and thats where the election is at

I thougth atlas poll was last night early this mornign and its ben 1.4% in favor of harris for 2 days now as opposed to a week ago and two weeks ago

I do believe in the 'early baloting" being better for republcians now than it was in 2020 % wise. TBD if that matters

idk why poly had trump such a massive fav a week ago

the betting lines were so different than the polling for 2 weeks now it was borderline weird. poly had harris so damn low when you looked at all the polling.

again if harris wins its a landslide being MI/PA/WI all go to harris

and to be fair, PA was harris +3/4 up until we got into october then it got super tight. Silver was spot on saying Shapiro would have been the hammer to this election