2024 ELECTION THREAD
The next presidential race will be here soon! Please see current Bovada odds. Thoughts?
The kneejerk fistpumping/panic I'm seeing elsewhere over the Selzer poll is the American electorate at its finest. Just absolute cluelessness regarding the limitations of polling, and way too much focus on the people administrating them.
It's one poll that notably deviates from other polls and recent history. It's somewhat respectable that they're (apparently) not interested in trying to massage the result to be more consistent with the herd, which some pollsters are clearly doing. So sure it's
this. nate silver just called pollsters out for obvious herding and lo and behold a day later we get the first poll that deviates from expectations
A whale had 25% of the action on poly, almost 30 million USD, all Trump.
Guys. The polls and betting odds have been so obviously manipulated the past month or so that I can't believe it's still puzzling so many of you. You were warned it was going to happen because it was obviously the only strategy trump's camp had: make it look like trump was a big favorite so he can plausibly claim fraud when he loses. Harris was up double digits before this happened and overnight conservative outlets flooded the polls with bogus data, put tons of money on Trump to win and everyone bought it hook line and sinker. Now real polls are showing the truth again, and the early vote data is pouring in, and it's showing Harris is and has been a massive favorite.
Guys. The polls and betting odds have been so obviously manipulated the past month or so that I can't believe it's still puzzling so many of you. You were warned it was going to happen because it was obviously the only strategy trump's camp had: make it look like trump was a big favorite so he can plausibly claim fraud when he loses. Harris was up double digits before this happened and overnight conservative outlets flooded the polls with bogus data, put tons of money on Trump to win and everyon
tbh just poly has been and rh
when or if trump loses MI and PA its going to still be close but he gets beat in landslide due to electorate sweep
The big question is if Kamala is really surging, then what changed? Are people suddenly changing their minds, and if so why? Or was the polling off and they did something to correct it?
The big questions for me don't even involve Iowa. If the Des Moines poll result is closer to reality than consensus, which is a pretty big if to begin with, great but even that doesn't mean it's anything that should be projected onto other state races for a ton of reasons.
And really if Harris wins the overall election and gets dusted by 5 pts Iowa, the masses are just going to **** on Selzer and have some new polling darling the next pass, even though she may be doing it exactly like she ought to. It's just the same results-based thinking that will continue to push pollsters toward the same safety in numbers approach, and people to put too much confidence in whatever fly-by-night broken clock pollster that gets it exactly right this year.
Guys. The polls and betting odds have been so obviously manipulated the past month or so that I can't believe it's still puzzling so many of you. You were warned it was going to happen because it was obviously the only strategy trump's camp had: make it look like trump was a big favorite so he can plausibly claim fraud when he loses. Harris was up double digits before this happened and overnight conservative outlets flooded the polls with bogus data, put tons of money on Trump to win and everyon
I think you cracked it.
Selzer inspiring me to put more money on Kamala on Robinhood. Curious what the odds will be tomorrow when the RH market opens.
Guys. The polls and betting odds have been so obviously manipulated the past month or so that I can't believe it's still puzzling so many of you. You were warned it was going to happen because it was obviously the only strategy trump's camp had: make it look like trump was a big favorite so he can plausibly claim fraud when he loses. Harris was up double digits before this happened and overnight conservative outlets flooded the polls with bogus data, put tons of money on Trump to win and everyon
This is just poll unskewing/trutherism. WaPo, Suffolk, Monmouth range from Trump +2 to Harris +2 in PA. No reason to think they are being "manipulated" Every cycle people come up with narratives on why their guesses will be more accurate than models. They are ignored every time.
He'll win all the swing states.
That's fine if you don't believe it. I'm piling money down with better odds.
He's not ahead in the polls in all swing states, sure. But he's already shown in two election cycles that he doesn't need the polls.
The fact that many polls being released showing Harris up in these states are a sign of panic from liberals so that people still go out and vote. What we saw last week with Trump leading all of them is more of a reality what is actually going to happen.
And
Which 2 cycles ?
I figure one is 2016 but then ?
You could of got Kamala wininng the pop vote at 58% a few days ago. I have noney on her winning that but im far from comfortable with it. I think if you looked into it a bit more, youd might change your opinion there.
Shes 12 points behind Hillary in California and cali obv is a big player on how she does aith that bet.
But anything could happen this election and polls have always been overrated. We simply dont know when so many people havent voted yet.
If u don’t feel confidence I’ll take some actions from you to lower your worrying sentiment lol.
Especially at 58% if u have anything near it !
I will say this poll is absolutely terrible for Joe Biden
This is just poll unskewing/trutherism. WaPo, Suffolk, Monmouth range from Trump +2 to Harris +2 in PA. No reason to think they are being "manipulated" Every cycle people come up with narratives on why their guesses will be more accurate than models. They are ignored every time.
Except I've posted multiple articles showing the manipulation, and pointed out the obviously biased polls in the list multiple times. I understand you refuse to see it since you respond every time I post this, but it's kind of funny how hard you work to avoid seeing it.
I certainly could be wrong about all of this, but I'd be shocked.
"a whale" just happened to have 25% of that market...and subsequently pushed the latest round of "truth" social pump n' dump
Except I've posted multiple articles showing the manipulation, and pointed out the obviously biased polls in the list multiple times. I understand you refuse to see it since you respond every time I post this, but it's kind of funny how hard you work to avoid seeing it.
I certainly could be wrong about all of this, but I'd be shocked.
Not sure what biased polls have to do with the best polls we have averaging to a coin flip. Last time you eventually backtracked all the way to it's a coin flip but Harris is a clear favorite so I don't think you're willing to back bold statements like "Harris up big" when challenged. Given your track record I think you'll declare victory even if Trump wins.
Trump is not going to win.
Can't wait for W. to endorse Harris on Monday.
trumps latest tweet according to atlaspoll
out of those swing states I do buy that hes ahead in NV and ARZ currently. Ive been saying harris is polling better in MI than PA and PA its super close, I think she edges aead in MI though I think atlas is wrong
I understanding it's unsatisfying to say with all the polling and modeling out there that either candidate could win and really could win the tipping point state by 3, but it would be impossible to create a reasonable model that doesn't say that at this point. Maybe final polls show a sharp move, but it's almost unimaginable that we could get to a place where Trump was as far behind as he was in 2020. Which of course is not the same thing as saying Trump cannot lose much worse than he did in 2020.
I think he is an underdog but to be fair for what republicans are saying, biden was more of a fav in polls than harris is current. most notable most polls iirc biden +4 or +3 and trump "narrowly" lost
so for what its worth I get what they are holding on to.
again, harris wins in a landslide menaning she amasses a ton of electoral votes even if states are close. or this will finally be the end of people taking polls and media seriously if 2016 result
I understanding it's unsatisfying to say with all the polling and modeling out there that either candidate could win and really could win the tipping point state by 3, but it would be impossible to create a reasonable model that doesn't say that at this point. Maybe final polls show a sharp move, but it's almost unimaginable that we could get to a place where Trump was as far behind as he was in 2020. Which of course is not the same thing as saying Trump cannot lose much worse than he did in 2
I’m way prettier than he is. And more of a winner.
As I’ve explained, I’ve read nate silver, realclearpolitics, betting markets extensively, other sources. Most of them show the same boring stuff about Kamala being up 2-3 points nationally and very very tight in the swing states. So if the polls are off by 2-3 points in either direction then trump or Kamala could win all the swing states.
I’m pretty confident Kamala will win the swing states for a variety of reasons. The important point in some of those outlier polls in the midwest ( kamala up 3 in iowa, Trump + 5 in Kansas, Trump + 3 in Ohioetc etc is they all tell a similar story of Trump losing the women vote by large margins. Selzer is a very highly regarded pollster and amomgst women voters Kamala is up 20 points. in iowa where most of them are white midwesterners.
Who cares what the polls say when I already know he’s going to lose? He wears more make up than Kamala.
I think it’s pretty crazy to expect 10s of millions of people online to behave a certain way. Like when black supporters picked Biden or Clinton over Ssnders we had people here saying it’s because they are poorly educated. That’s stupid but it’s also dumb to say it was a big reason in why sanders lost. But just the fact that you’re talking about this and not actual candidate ms just shows you’re holding democrats to a ludicrous Standard you don’t hold
For the last time, not what I’m talking about but forget it. It’s not crazy to think the side that needs to beat fascists should do a better job than just scraping by.
i think we should keep in mind that polling data only captures what it can capture, being the opinion of the following groups:
people who pick up the phone to an unknown number in 2024 aka psychos
people who use the internet without adbl.ock ie olds
people who choose to stop in the street to talk about politics with a stranger - jerkoffs with nothing better to do
people who respond to mail requests which invite them to share their political views ie more olds
so all we really know for sure is that it's about 50/50 after weighting adjustments among psychos, olds, jerkoffs and more olds
the midterm polling in 2022 was accurate, but that might be because the above categories are very over-represented among the midterm electorate
Time will tell on Atlas but I definitely have a few concerns from what I've seen. Throw it in the aggregate I guess but they definitely have some questionable things in the crosstabs, results suggesting things like Harris winning men with Trump winning women has to give me a little pause.
I do know I'll be drinking my ass off by 8pm or so election night either way. I have a home bar I've been neglecting lately but I'm on vacation now and it is on.
