Ukraine-Russia War Take 2
Here is what the preliminary take on the Ukraine thread disappearing is:
The site was hit with a massive spam attack wher
Netherlands F-35s were also involved in the intercepts under NATO Air Policing. The Kremlin claims the overflights were inadvertent, but obviously nobody believes them. They're testing NATO's air defence and political commitment. Trump's 'Here we go!' social-media post possibly wasn't what they were hoping for.
The Art.4 consultation requested by Poland may well result in a beefing up of regional air policing by Western air forces.
Netherlands F-35s were also involved in the intercepts under NATO Air Policing. The Kremlin claims the overflights were inadvertent, but obviously nobody believes them. They're testing NATO's air defence and political commitment. Trump's 'Here we go!' social-media post possibly wasn't what they were hoping for. The Art.4 consultation requested by Poland may well result in a bee
There are rumors/claims it was a ****up by Belarus (no idea how credible they are). Rumors/claims are the drones were vanilla cheap decoys used en masse in Ukraine to exhaust defenses before the real drones come in.
Still a space to monitor for better info when it comes
Speaking of the Spanish govt and its hostility towards Israel, Sanchez apparently made this comment, I guess implying if Spain could it would nuke Israel to stop them trying to defeat Hamas?
I've kind of believed since this thing was about 6 months old and obviously an unexpected quagmire, if there were hits on Moscow and people dying on the streets there, Putin would be gone nearly immediately.
There has been shelling in Kiev. Zelensky is still there. I history what we've seen is that when a country is attacked from the outside a population typically increases solidarity and rallies behind whoever the leader is. We keep seeing policies which ignore this tendency, but these policies are actually more about the prolonging war and conflict than political results.
That they didn't shoot down the remaining 15 (actual number somewhat unclear) drones is probably even more non-trivial.
Was it intentional? Well, certainly fits into a well-known pattern of Russian arrogance and aggression towards neighboring countries.
It doesn't take a genius to realize that Russia has wargames that include attacks on most European countries and infrastructure they see as standing in the way of their ongoing and future wars. And while Russian attacks on Ukraine isn't always renowned for their skillful aim, some 20+ drones crossing into NATO territory is a border-line absurd error. That all drones just happened to free of dangerous payload (important to note that this is per publicly available intelligence) also seems like a suspicious coincidence.
Adding these three together, we can certainly imagine some moronic decision-makers in Russian intelligence thinking that something like this is a valuable exercise for data they can used to make their wargames better.
Does it signal some dangerous sudden shift in Russian foreign policy? Well, no. They have a long history of not giving a **** about borders. That doesn't mean it isn't dangerous. Russia has undermined a lot of trust and created a very uncertain diplomatic environment in Europe. So while the act certainly isn't unexpected, it is still far more dangerous now than it used to be.
Thx, t_d. I'm always interested in how you read the tea leaves on military stuff, and you seem like the only person here who is remotely qualified to do it. I certainly am not.
That they didn't shoot down the remaining 15 (actual number somewhat unclear) drones is probably even more non-trivial.
Was it intentional? Well, certainly fits into a well-known pattern of Russian arrogance and aggression towards neighboring countries.
How much of that is actually defensive against aggressive NATO actions? I don't mean to keep saying this as if on a loop, but there was a violent overthrow of a democratically elected government in Ukraine, an overthrow instigated and supported by the U.S. The subsequent government began attacking native Russian speakers in Ukraine and military training with NATO. What would you do if you were Russia? Just sit there and watch your people get killed? Watch your neighbor install first strike weapons all over your borders?
It doesn't take a genius to realize that Russia has wargames that include attacks on most European countries and infrastructure they see as defending themselves from unrelenting naked NATO aggression.
fyp
Adding these three together, we can certainly imagine some moronic decision-makers in Russian intelligence thinking that something like this is a valuable exercise for data they can used to make their wargames better.
I don't see how people can say things like this while knowing who are foreign policy team is in comparison to Russia's. Have you seen Marco Rubio in action? You've got him, Trump, and some golf buddy of Trump vs. Putin and Lavrov. Are you telling me you can't tell which are the morons between these 2 countries?
That they didn't shoot down the remaining 15 (actual number somewhat unclear) drones is probably even more non-trivial. Was it intentional? Well, certainly fits into a well-known pattern of Russian arrogance and aggression towards neighboring countries. It doesn't take a genius to realize that Russia has wargames that include attacks on most European countries and infrastructu
Man, did Putin got impressed by that b2 bomber flying over his head In Alaska huh ?
Giggle to maga .
Another failed power move bluff by trump smh .
One of the consequences is to to bolster the focus in Europe on defense against the small/cheap rather than just the large/expensive. One of the big future threats is swarms of very cheap drones/etc (in varieties and simplistic sophistication only limited by our imagination). Whatever combats them has to be cheap per use and able to handle repeated massive attacks.
One of the consequences is to to bolster the focus in Europe on defense against the small/cheap rather than just the large/expensive. One of the big future threats is swarms of very cheap drones/etc (in varieties and simplistic sophistication only limited by our imagination). Whatever combats them has to be cheap per use and able to handle repeated massive attacks.
The UK Project Octopus is a tech-sharing agreement with Ukraine that is expected to see Britain producing interceptor drones at the rate of 'thousands per month'.
It's not new but it's increasing the focus.
1000's per month is peanuts. Were already at multi-hundreds in a day and the threat is mass production as well as sophistication. In WW2 Germany could manage a million bombs on London in a few months (not sure how accurate this is but it's indicative). This is orders of magnitude cheaper and simpler.
It's also not just flying drones we should be worried about.
One of the consequences is to to bolster the focus in Europe on defense against the small/cheap rather than just the large/expensive. One of the big future threats is swarms of very cheap drones/etc (in varieties and simplistic sophistication only limited by our imagination). Whatever combats them has to be cheap per use and able to handle repeated massive attacks.
It's funny because you are so naive. They will spend in the way that best help their political allies, cronies, relatives and personal friends, and no other consideration will apply.
It's not new but it's increasing the focus.
1000's per month is peanuts. Were already at multi-hundreds in a day and the threat is mass production as well as sophistication. In WW2 Germany could manage a million bombs on London in a few months (not sure how accurate this is but it's indicative). This is orders of magnitude cheaper and simpler.
The army is trialling an energy weapon that takes down drone swarms at a cost of a few pence per kill.
It's funny because you are so naive. They will spend in the way that best help their political allies, cronies, relatives and personal friends, and no other consideration will apply.
You see a real problem but it blinds you. In reality the voices warning about real problems get drowned out less as the danger becomes more immediate and harder harder to dismiss
That's the real difference russia's drone incursion makes. It hasn't changed the threat at all but it has made it harder to play down.
The army is trialling an energy weapon that takes down drone swarms at a cost of a few pence per kill.
Yes and that's an important area to focus on. I read someone arguing that the drone war was effectively over because of these anti-drone weapons. I suspect they are a bit too enthusiastic.
In general, there will be no sanctions. Let's go.
The most interesting thing is that he mentioned that this is a war between Biden and Zelensky, but he didn't even mention putin. NATO, Biden and Zelensky are to blame for everything.
And also, just for the facts, Europe has reduced purchases of russian oil from $16.4 billion in 2021 to $1.7 billion in 2025. And those who are buying now are mainly Hungary and Slovakia. Trump doesn't mention them in his post.
By 2027, Europe plans to completely abandon purchases of russian LNG on the spot. Moreover, US Energy Secretary Christopher Wright confirmed this plan on Wednesday
Trump is simply making up non-existent excuses not to impose sanctions against his friend putin.
In general, there will be no sanctions. Let's go.The most interesting thing is that he mentioned that this is a war between Biden and Zelensky, but he didn't even mention putin. NATO, Biden and Zelensky are to blame for everything.And also, just for the facts, Europe has reduced purchases of russian oil from $16.4 billion in 2021 to $1.7 billion in 2025. And those who are buyi
man we are buying russian oil triangulated through other countries, and we are buying products made with russian oil bought by third countries.
/
The EU paid EUR 21.9 bn for Russian fossil fuel imports in the third year of the invasion, a mere 1% year-on-year reduction in volume. The EU’s Russian imports in the third year of the invasion surpassed the EUR 18.7 bn of financial aid sent to Ukraine in 2024.
Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
Certainly isn't Zelensky's war, no matter how many times Trump propagates this falsehood.
Certainly isn't Zelensky's war, no matter how many times Trump propagates this falsehood.
yep it isn't, but it's true that we should go *allin* with sanctions (including third countries) or it would be better to do nothing at all.
We should completly embargo russia, and any country that doesn't completly embargo russia. Like i mean we did in the past with cuba and iran, nothing new.
With complete embargo i mean cut their banking system off the west *completly*, freeze all their assets in the west, stop issuing ANY VISA to any citizen of their countries, and of course 0 trade (not tariffs: zero trade), no exceptions no loopholes, total war.
We should put China in front of a clear choice: you either mantain relationship with Russia and you lose ALL contacts with us, completly, or viceversa.
Certainly isn't Zelensky's war, no matter how many times Trump propagates this falsehood.
true enough. I mean, what choice did Zelensky have? follow his paymasters in DC (and London dont forget) or get strung up from a lamppost by the Azov boys.
It's a weird thing with Trump now where you have to listen to what he says, because of his position as a chimp with his finger on the button, but you can't put any faith in anything he is saying so what is the point of listening? I don't think the ROW is going to impose austerity on itself so that Ukraine can be the point of the NATO spear and be turned into a slave state for BlackRock. What do they gain from that? Not being sanctioned? In fact they know they would just be making another competitor. Plus they now have prospects to join the emerging economic rival system to that run by American pigs, so that threat is becoming more like incentivization towards a better world.
yep it isn't, but it's true that we should go *allin* with sanctions (including third countries) or it would be better to do nothing at all.We should completly embargo russia, and any country that doesn't completly embargo russia. Like i mean we did in the past with cuba and iran, nothing new.With complete embargo i mean cut their banking system off the west *completly*, freeze
Neither the US or China can afford to disengage from each other at this time. But we dont even need to go that far. We dont even need to go after India. If the West completely cuts off Russia and Iran in the way you describe (we dont come close to doing this with either country) that would probably be enough.
The elites of Russia and Iran want to be part of the West. They want their children to go to school in England, France and the US. They want to shop in Paris and NY. They want their European holidays. Take all that away until a peace treat is signed, on top of complete economic sanctions and cutting them off from banking; and I think Putin will come to the table.
Thx, t_d. I'm always interested in how you read the tea leaves on military stuff, and you seem like the only person here who is remotely qualified to do it. I certainly am not.
Thanks. I'll note that I'm just a layman when it comes to strategic and tactical analysis, but I try to be careful with sources.
Man, did Putin got impressed by that b2 bomber flying over his head In Alaska huh ?
Giggle to maga .
Another failed power move bluff by trump smh .
Huffing and puffing generally does little to impress Russia diplomatically. For all its incompetence and corruption, people don't rise to the top of Russian decision-making if they're easily scared by threats.
For that matter, I doubt it was intended as a threat or even a veiled threat, but was more just an awkward political boast.
[...]
The elites of Russia and Iran want to be part of the West. They want their children to go to school in England, France and the US. They want to shop in Paris and NY. They want their European holidays. Take all that away until a peace treat is signed, on top of complete economic sanctions and cutting them off from banking; and I think Putin will come to the table.
Some years back, I used to believe that Russian oligarchs held a lot, perhaps even most, of the political power in Russia. However, the last three years have shown pretty conclusively that they're mostly powerless parasites. As long as they are seen as useful or profitable for the regime, they're allowed to steal some crumbs for themselves. Also, I don't think that a desire for western luxuries or western naivety about where their money comes from necessary means "they want to be part of the west". It's common to overestimate the "westerness" of Russia, mostly because that is the portion we often meet.
Russia is politically opaque, so it is difficult to use the crystal ball on its machinations. I think a serious threat to the regime would likely have to come from within the armed forces, and at a fairly high level and with some political support. Said political support is probably most likely from ultra-nationalist circles, which isn't good news for anyone. However, I think the scare in 2023 made the regime paranoid both in regards to popular high-ranking officers and regime-critical ultra-nationalists.
the epidemic of that very Russian window-jumping virus changed the power of oligarchs recently.
They were only ever allowed wealth as long as they supported the dictator, like the Krupps under Hitler.
Russia having some more border confusion.
[URL="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czrp6p5mj3zo"]Nato intercepts Russian warplanes violating Estonian airspace
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Three Russian warplanes that violated Estonian airspace have been intercepted by Nato, the military alliance has said.
Estonia's foreign ministry condemned the incursion as "brazen". It said three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered the airspace of a Nato member "without permission and remained there for a total of 12 minutes" on Friday over the Gulf of Finland.
