Israel / Iran thread
Seems like this conflict is not going to end anytime soon and is worthy of its own thread.
Nothing like entering an escalation battle when your debt-to-GDP ratio is at 1946 levels, interest payments on the national debt are > than the military budget, you were elected by millions of isolationist right wingers, and the youth of your country is disillusioned and have no morale to fight an enemy that a large % of them agree with. But at least there's a few short-term Ws
Or maybe the guy always threatening everyone and who celebrates murderous dictators as strong men was never that much of a peacenik in the first place? Just a thought
Or maybe the guy always threatening everyone and who celebrates murderous dictators as strong men was never that much of a peacenik in the first place? Just a thought
I mean, I worded the post in a way to suggest that there's a far higher % chance that Trump is simply short-sighted.
But as poker players, we have to admit that, given the way the information has evolved, the range of possibility that he is actually blackmailed has increased substantially. He has shown capacity for intelligence and long-term thought in the past (DOGE and other attempts to address the problems in the bond market), but he has never come close to this combination of boldness/shortsightedness/acting against US interests before.
You're just sad that it wasn't your team who attacked Iran. You are sad because this is a huge win for Trump.
Am I right?
You are wrong. I don't think anybody should attack Iran. What I'm sad about is the prospect of more war. I also don't have a "team", although I understand and sympathize with the fact that you think otherwise, as all conservatives and most liberals share your black-and-white ideological thinking where it's Team A locked in a forever war with Team B and there's no option but to root for one of them.
No it didn't escape my attention, but again found it telling you claimed Israel is among two of the most associated with paedophilia. But I'm sure you have your reasons...
I do indeed have my reason, and it's the known fact that Israel is a world-renowned safe harbor for pedophiles. Spend 10 minutes Googling it and hit me back. Also, do you find it equally telling that I associated Britain with pedophilia? Am I committing antibritishism? Or could I possibly know things about the world you do not?
I mean, I worded the post in a way to suggest that there's a far higher % chance that Trump is simply short-sighted. But as poker players, we have to admit that, given the way the information has evolved, the range of possibility that he is actually blackmailed has increased substantially.
I think we might have some very different views on the capacity for intelligence and long-term thought that he has demonstrated.
I have a very small prior probability that he is being blackmailed because of how much scrutiny has been on him for the past decade or so, and that it would have come out earlier. So raising that prior would still be a small probability.
Another consideration is that there are better explanations for the explanandum, which is that it is completely consistent with Trump’s flipflopping, erratic behavior, and preemptive strikes like Soleimani and drone strikes.
Trump...has shown capacity for intelligence and long-term thought in the past (DOGE and other attempts to address the problems in the bond market)
whoa! The formation of DOGE is certainly one... interesting... way to attempt to demonstrate another's high level of intelligence.
Anyway, speaking of poker, I'm going to log off 2p2 and continue playing that game for a living while the mongidigs of the world slave away at some low-middle level corporate job somewhere within the U.S. war machine, all for 1/3rd the money I make gambling. Peace.
I think we might have some very different views on the capacity for intelligence and long-term thought that he has demonstrated.I have a very small prior probability that he is being blackmailed because of how much scrutiny has been on him for the past decade or so, and that it would have come out earlier. So raising that prior would still be a small probability.Another conside
The beauty of blackmail is that scrutiny doesn't matter, as the incentive of the blackmailee is to keep it as secretive as possible (i.e. not even letting family or closest advisors know).
We seem to be agreed that blackmail is the far lower % and that the recent actions have increased that %, but I think you should readjust your priors with this in mind.
I mean, I worded the post in a way to suggest that there's a far higher % chance that Trump is simply short-sighted. But as poker players, we have to admit that, given the way the information has evolved, the range of possibility that he is actually blackmailed has increased substantially.
THis is a ridiculous example.
Yes, Trump has shown intellectual capacity in the past but never once in relationship to his duties as a president.
As for long term planning, without Ivanka, he would have been personally broke (a broke millionaire to be sure, but definitely broke considering where he started in life).
He's only bold because he gives no shits about harms to US interests and only cares about his own ego and pocket books. He gives no shits about the status quo because he can't get credit for it. All he wants to do is stir up **** storms, claim the status quo ante didn't work, and then claim credit for the resulting deals that are, at least so far, worse than the status quo ante in every case. Like legitimately there wasn't a single deal that he claimed credit for that doesn't amount to the restoration of status quo ante (that he destoryed) at the best.
He appears bolder only because he surrounded himself with even more yesmen this term.
whoa! The formation of DOGE is certainly one... interesting... way to attempt to demonstrate another's high level of intelligence.Anyway, speaking of poker, I'm going to log off 2p2 and continue playing that game for a living while the mongidigs of the world slave away at some low-middle level corporate job somewhere within the U.S. war machine, all for 1/3rd the money I make
The problems in the bond market are serious and do have to be addressed at some point. In order to address them, cuts to federal spending have to be made, so to do this while it is still very abstract in the minds of most people is a sign of long-term thinking that is the opposite of what is being displayed in the current situation.
Anyway, speaking of poker, I'm going to log off 2p2 and continue playing that game for a living...
Oh dear.
At the end of 1927, the People’s Commissar of the Interior presented a report devoted to gambling and the gaming business existing at that time to the RSFSR SPC. The main idea voiced through the report was the incompatibility of an idle, bourgeois pastime with the true spirit of the working proletariat. And, regardless of the rather modest figures in the gaming sector (for example, only 4 small gaming houses operated in Leningrad at that time), the key prohibitive provisions in the report were approved.
All this led to a ban on the opening of gambling houses in worker districts, it was followed by a ban on gambling in the entire districts, and later, on May 8, 1928, by the resolution of the USSR SPC, all Soviet Republics were instructed, the reasons not being explained, "to take measures on the immediate closure of any facilities for card games, roulette, lotto and other kinds of gambling".
The beauty of blackmail is that scrutiny doesn't matter, as the incentive of the blackmailee is to keep it as secretive as possible (i.e. not even letting family or closest advisors know).
We seem to be agreed that blackmail is the far lower % and that the recent actions have increased that %, but I think you should readjust your priors with this in mind.
While it’s true that we would expect blackmail is some secret information, we would also expect in the context of blackmailing a president that whatever contact there is with that person if you wanted to use the blackmail would be somewhat hard to keep opsec, and over the course of 10 years it becomes harder to keep the info secret. Imagine if you were a mossad agent that had info on this, how famous you could become by revealing it. And presumably over ten years there would need to be more turnaround.
But who knows again this is just speculation and my priors are low, I would have to see more arguments in favor of blackmail as an explanation to raise my probabilities. My credence isn’t 0 though, it’s probably around .2-.5% chance.
I had to have a quiet chuckle at the drop of oil prices instead of the increase as I bet Trump is just flooding the market to make up for it
i'll never understand the credibility people give Iran as being a serious threat to anything outside of the region. They have zero capibilities.
They fought Iraq for twenty years to a stalemate with zero gains on either side.
...the same Iraq we took out in 3 days.
People fire guided missiles at them and take out supposedly top people in their government and they are forced to respond by throwing the equivalent of rocks in the form of ballistic missiles.
LOL at anyone scared of Iran.
That said....**** them. Do it for Jimmy....
I am one of the only people on this board who actually assesses his opinions based on new information and engages in self criticism in an effort to determine better ideas.
Ok - I am surprised though as you were very strong in your opinions in support of his. I also think you may be in a state of despair in the last few years and would actually have welcomed him if he was president and become a lot less anti-US as a result.
So that agreement back in 2015 was all b/s then they had no intention to disarm their nuclear weapon capabilities and now are all upset that this delaying tactic that allowed them to continue on with their nuclear program undetected that was outside of what international agencies inspected them for. Now that the game is up and it is all lost they are mad - **** off. They have to be complete idiots or something if they ever thought the world would just allow them to develop a nuclear weapon.
Now that they have attacked a US based we now enter stage 3 of this conflict which is a full on US involvement in the conflict (so both Israel and the US will now strike at Iran) and we will now see actual missions inside of Iran to eliminate leaders including the Supreme Leader.
Well yes ok 🙄
I don’t consider Vic opinion has a sane normal respond to much of anything but .
My bad you’re right ….but you are wrong if u intended to make that point as a mainstream narrative .
I didn't intend to make to make that point as a mainstream narrative, nor did I declare such a thing. I was responding to another poster, then you responded that "no-one is saying that", which was incorrect in fairness.
Articles that discuss war often allude to Trump, Putin, Khameini, Netanyahu, Zelenskyy, Kim Jong Un, [fill in the blank] feeling pressure to do something to avoid "humiliation."
I hope that the world isn't actually run my people who are so mentally weak that they feel like they have to kill people to avoid personal humiliation.
You are wrong. I don't think anybody should attack Iran. What I'm sad about is the prospect of more war. I also don't have a "team", although I understand and sympathize with the fact that you think otherwise, as all conservatives and most liberals share your black-and-white ideological thinking where it's Team A locked in a forever war with Team B and there's no option but
I don't believe you. You probably love the prospect of more war so you can thunder about evil Israel and AmeriKKKa, the way vic loves the prospect of dead Palestinians , for the same reason.
I do indeed have my reason, and it's the known fact that Israel is a world-renowned safe harbor for pedophiles. Spend 10 minutes Googling it and hit me back. Also, do you find it equally telling that I associated Britain with pedophilia? Am I committing antibritishism? Or could I possibly know things about the world you do not?
You said British neocons, not Britain. I reckon if you asked anyone what was most associated with paedophilia, as in institutions they'd say the Catholic church and if asked what nations, they'd probably say Thailand or Cambodia or the Philippines. So yet again it's telling you seem to think Israel is and yet again I'm sure you have your reasons.
So that agreement back in 2015 was all b/s then they had no intention to disarm their nuclear weapon capabilities and now are all upset that this delaying tactic that allowed them to continue on with their nuclear program undetected that was outside of what international agencies inspected them for. Now that the game is up and it is all lost they are mad - **** off. They have t
It seems not. Trump has thanked the Iranians for giving notice of their retaliatory strike (they also gave notice to the UK in case we had any personnel in the area, which was very polite of them) and he considers the matter closed for now.
Articles that discuss war often allude to Trump, Putin, Khameini, Netanyahu, Zelenskyy, Kim Jong Un, [fill in the blank] feeling pressure to do something to avoid "humiliation."
I hope that the world isn't actually run my people who are so mentally weak that they feel like they have to kill people to avoid personal humiliation.
I don’t think this level of analysis is being fair. In most of the world there is a lot more at stake than personal humiliation for not projecting strength adequately and letting slights go unanswered.
In fact, WEIRD societies where projection of strength and not answering slights to honor is not important are the rarity.
Even in WEiRD societies outside of upper middle class white society, allowing someone to get the better of you causes you to lose status and can be dangerous.
Which is whey “beefs” escalate so much in “urban” environments and lead to violence so much.
In a word, yes. Even for adults, basically everyone on the extreme right and extreme left does, but for the youth those extremes extend much more toward the center.
I think you are over-estimating support.
For young people specifically, many of these people have no understanding of the IRGC, its ideology, or what it has been up to the last 45 years.
There is a reason no one in our elite political or economic class supports Iran, outside of bad actors like Tucker.
Even people who are outwardly critical of Zionism never go this far. Because they have enough information to understand what a morally compromised and counterproductive position supporting the irgc is.
It isn’t great that uninformed people with bad information have bad takes. But the IRGC is so horrible and indefensible Most of these people will change their opinions if/when they get a tiny bit of information.
