NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA

and the first post on social media gloating about the win comes from the conference, not the school

however bad you feel for us, I can assure you the fanbase feels much, much worse

It's difficult to describe how hyped everybody was the entire day from the amazingly positive gameday experience. My chat thread from my college buddies was buzzing like it hasn't been in years. The school is famously anti-sports, and for the first time basically ever it really felt like everybody was on board.

Nobody is under an illusion that we were the better team, or that we should have won, but the last couple of decades have just been so brutal. Not only are we always terrible, BUT ALSO we've never gotten lucky or run hot in really any spot, AND ALSO we always just seem to get ****ed, all stemming back to getting absolutely screwed out of our first (and only) rose bowl since 1959 by mack brown and his brother.

2003, with the upset of USC and winning the insight bowl represented hope. In 04, we went 10-1 with that epic loss to usc, and then got ****ed out of the rose bowl, and just... never recovered

The next 4 years we started the season ranked, cracked the top 10 in 4 of the 5 years, briefly hit a #1 ranking, but every single year ended in disaster - we were unranked 3 times, finished 14th once and 25th once.

In the FIFTEEN seasons since, we've never finished ranked or with fewer than 5 losses. Basically no huge upsets, no hope, really nothing to hang our hat on whatsoever. Then we get left out of the B1G sweepstakes and it seemed like we were doomed, but then this year actually had some hope and some hype and then it finally looked like we were going to run hot and get a huge win at home in front of a national audience, and then we just absolutely collapse and then get completely ****ed by the refs as the cherry on top.

And it's not like basketball is any better - we've won TWO tournament games in 21 years and haven't even MADE the tournament since 2016. At least we finally have a shred of hope there though, after suffering through Braun and Cuanzo and Fox, I really do think Madsen might be able to turn it around.

But yeah, Cal fandom is really, really rough.

The race to see who makes the conf champ games is gonna be wild, especially the SEC. A lot of the contenders don't play each other, so some losses to the middle class are way more damaging than others, because of the 'record against mutually played' tiebreaker. I think Tenn's lost to Arkansas is particularly damaging, for example, as Texas, ATM, Ole Miss and LSU all play Arkansas also. Whereas if Bama loses to like Mizzou, Mizzou plays nobody, so that won't count in the tiebreakers. And of course, poor Florida basically plays all of the SEC contenders, so if anybody loses to them, that will be a crippling tiebreaker loss. (Although again, given the h2hs and "quality wins" metrics, I still think you're probably overall better off losing to Florida and beating a fellow contender rahter than vice versa)

Jason Kidd beating Duke is literally all I know about Cal basketball.

Last week ended up being UPSET CITY. This week features multiple heavyweight bouts, a bunch of middle class shakeout games and the welcome return of midweek football (albeit some pretty crappy games)

TUESDAY
19:00:00 Florida International 17.5
19:00:00 Liberty -17.5

WEDNESDAY
19:30:00 New Mexico State 21.5
19:30:00 Jacksonville State -20.5

THURSDAY
19:30:00 Coastal Carolina 9.5
19:30:00 James Madison -9.5

20:00:00 Middle Tenn. St 4.5
20:00:00 Louisiana Tech -4

FRIDAY
20:00:00 UTEP 19.5
20:00:00 Western Kentucky -18.5

19:00:00 Memphis -6.5
19:00:00 South Florida 6.5
Both teams are 0-1 in the AAC, and with the hot starts that Army and Navy have gotten off to, this is probably an elimination game.

20:00:00 Northwestern 10
20:00:00 Maryland -9.5

21:00:00 UNLV -18.5
21:00:00 Utah State 18.5

22:30:00 #16 Utah -4
22:30:00 Arizona State 4
Both teams are 4-1 overall and 1-1 in B12 play. The B-12 is an absolute bloodbath, almost every team is still reasonably live to win it.

SATURDAY
12:00:00 UAB 24.5
12:00:00 Army -23.5

12:00:00 South Carolina 21.5
12:00:00 #7 Alabama -21.5
How will Bama respond after losing to Vandy?

12:00:00 #21 Missouri -27.5
12:00:00 Massachusetts 27.5

12:00:00 Ball State -6.5
12:00:00 Kent 6.5

12:00:00 Toledo -9.5
12:00:00 Buffalo 9.5

12:00:00 #10 Clemson -20.5
12:00:00 Wake Forest 20.5

12:00:00 Georgia Tech -5.5
12:00:00 North Carolina 6

12:00:00 Washington 3
12:00:00 Iowa -3
I have these teams rated 23rd and 25th. Both teams have faint playoff hopes, and this is a de-facto playoff elimination game. (Iowa is 100% out with a loss. Washington would still probably make it at 9-3 given the murder's row they have coming up, but it looks almost impossible to run the table from here)

12:00:00 Wisconsin 3
12:00:00 Rutgers -2.5
Another elimination game. Wisco/Rutgers are probably in if they run the table, and each is also out if they lose 1 more

14:00:00 Miami (OH) -2.5
14:00:00 Eastern Michigan 3

15:30:00 San Jose State -2.5
15:30:00 Colorado State 2.5

15:30:00 San Diego State 0.5
15:30:00 Wyoming 1.5

15:30:00 #1 Texas -14
15:30:00 #18 Oklahoma 14.5
RED RIVER SHOOTOUT, SEC EDITION. Texas is coming off of the most successful bye week ever. Haters will say that the playoff takes some of the shine off here, as both teams can easily afford a loss, but something tells me that won't affect the motivation one bit.

15:30:00 Old Dominion 1.5
15:30:00 Georgia State -1.5

15:30:00 Cincinnati 3.5
15:30:00 Central Florida -3

15:30:00 Akron 9.5
15:30:00 Western Michigan -8.5

15:30:00 Northern Illinois 3
15:30:00 Bowling Green -2.5

15:30:00 California 3.5
15:30:00 #22 Pittsburgh -3.5
I don't understand how the line is only 3.5 on this one. After 2 absolutely heartbreaking losses, and then having to travel across the entire country, I don't see how Cal keeps this close. Then again, nobody really believes in 5-0 Pitt, so idk.

15:30:00 Louisville -7.5
15:30:00 Virginia 7.5
UVA is 4-1 against very light competition, while Louisville has their backs against the wall

15:30:00 Stanford 22
15:30:00 #11 Notre Dame -22

15:30:00 Purdue 19
15:30:00 #23 Illinois -19

15:30:00 #4 Penn State -5
15:30:00 USC 5
USC is 0-2 in the B1G, losing two very close, extremely B1G matchups. Penn State is cruising

16:00:00 Arizona 4
16:00:00 #14 BYU -4
Arizona elimination game, while BYU is 5-0 but not very highly regarded by Vegas... but they are #14 in the polls!

16:00:00 Ohio -2.5
16:00:00 Central Michigan 3.5

16:15:00 Mississippi State 34.5
16:15:00 #5 Georgia -33.5

17:00:00 Southern Miss 6.5
17:00:00 Louisiana-Monroe -6.5

19:00:00 North Texas -6.5
19:00:00 Florida Atlantic 6.5

19:00:00 UTSA -4
19:00:00 Rice 4.5

19:00:00 Air Force 4.5
19:00:00 New Mexico -4.5

19:00:00 Washington State -3.5
19:00:00 Fresno State 3.5
Under the radar game here - Fresno is right on the border of "win the MWC and slide in to the playoffs" while Wazzu is trying to keep their hopes of an at large playoff bid alive. The Boise loss hurt, but the Texas Tech and Washington wins are looking better and better.

19:00:00 Florida 16.5
19:00:00 Tennessee -15.5
Nice win over UCF for Florida! Tennessee looks to rebound after the Arkansas debacle.

19:00:00 Arkansas State 14.5
19:00:00 Texas State -13.5

19:30:00 Oregon State -3.5
19:30:00 Nevada 4.5

19:30:00 #9 Mississippi -3
19:30:00 #13 LSU 3.5
A "thin the herd" type SEC game

19:30:00 Appalachian State 10.5
19:30:00 Louisiana-Lafayette -9.5

19:30:00 #2 Ohio State -4
19:30:00 #3 Oregon 4
The match of the weekend. Winner likely heads to the B1G championship game. Loser is no lock, with Indiana and Penn State lurking. (Oregon plays neither, OSU plays both)

19:45:00 Vanderbilt 13.5
19:45:00 Kentucky -13
Whose QUALITY LOSS is more QUALITY, Bama's or Ole Miss' ?

20:00:00 Marshall -2.5
20:00:00 Georgia Southern 2.5

20:00:00 #11 Iowa State -3
20:00:00 West Virginia 3.5
ISU is undefeated and has a win over Iowa. WVU lost to Pitt and Penn State OOC, but is off to a 2-0 start in B12 play winning against Kansas and @ Oklahoma State. They host contenders ISU and K State back to back.

20:00:00 Syracuse -4.5
20:00:00 North Carolina State 5.5

21:00:00 Minnesota -5.5
21:00:00 UCLA 5.5

22:15:00 #18 Kansas State -5
22:15:00 Colorado 5
Colorado is coming off of its most dominant performance in the Prime era, and with a win would be ranked and 3-0 in B12 play. Kansas State rebounded from that bizarre BYU game by pounding Ok State last week. Both teams are coming off of a bye.

23:00:00 #17 fBoise State -21
23:00:00 Hawaii 21.5

The other 3 times Vandy has been a double digit favorite resulted in 2 wins and an OT. Connelly's postgame win exp would also have them 2-1 covering the spread by a touchdown against Bama and 2 touchdowns or more in the other two.

If you go back to New Mexico State @ Auburn, Pavia-quarterbacked teams are now 3-1 straight up and 4-0 ATS against power 4 competition where they were always at least 13 point dogs, beating the spread by an *average* of 27 goddamned points with a low of 14.5! Take away the Auburn game (46 points ATS) and it's still an average of 21 points better than the spread!

So no I will not be laying the points with Kentucky this week!

...best thing about this pattern is Vandy will be a double-digit dog 4 or 5 more times after Kentucky, so maybe eventually it won't feel like a fluke, lol.

a lot of you slappies have been 'LOLing' Coach Prime all season

for what?

LOL Purcan't

DeBoer can't keep that pressure cooker from flying apart. That's the province of the coaching gods. Fail.

purdonot

purdont imo

Purdone

the fact purdoesnt produce a positive trophy marks no need for punctual december bowl game appointments

PurMAC

Let's chill out on the Purdue hate. Are they the worst P5 team? Yes. But, they did look great vs Indiana State!

are you suggesting a B1G MAC relegation scenario?
lose and they ship your ass back to happy meal?

indeed

however, win and do not pass GO but head directly to happy valley

show up for a white out only to discover the ice cream machine is broken

I think mostly everyone has been enjoying the Prime stuff. It's been a breathe of fresh air. It's just that he lives rent free in SRM's head and he posts a lot about him so it seems like the board is anti-Prime.

Also, thank god for Purdue, otherwise FSU would be last in that graph. How did we even beat Cal? Like wtf?

I'd give that win back to Cal though, if I could. A winless regular season after an undefeated one would be pretty epic. Anything to get Norvell more on the hot seat. How hot did he have to sunrun for everything to fall into place so well last year? I think he just got lucky on like every Portal addition and Jordan Travis somehow transformed from a running back who couldn't throw the ball, to a Heisman frontrunner. They damn near moved him to WR before he blew up at QB.

Cigs do indeed be rippin. Theb2nd half of that schedule is a significant step up from the first, but even being mentioned in the CFP picture is incredible.

And yeah, *sad train noises*...

Does Utah qb ever play?

Miami currently has no ranked teams on their schedule.

They could run the table, but lose the CG, and would likely be left out of a 12 team playoff.

it's interesting Fossil

Miami's SOS rank for games already played is 64th (FPI)

their Remaining SOS is 52nd

all that said, they are #2 in SOR. if that holds somewhat steady, even a loss in the ACCCG wouldn't stop them from being one of the 12 teams i'd think

saving himself for the rapture while suffering through multiple ruptures
cam rising applies to the hospital bill as well as the church
good thing salt lake sorts tax return dependents by the dozen
more men the merrier

lol FIU down 14 with 6 minutes left

scores a touchdown

incorrectly kicks the XP

GETS AN OFFSIDE ON THE XP, SO NOW THEY COULD GO FOR IT FROM THE 1

declines penalty

nobody notices or cares