NCAA FOOTBALL 2024 MEGA THREAD - WELCOME TO THE PLAYOFF ERA

ACC Preview

Team Rating Conf Playoff
FloridaSt 19.4 24% 38%
Clemson 18.3 21% 33%
Miamifl 16 18% 31%
Louisville 13.8 9% 15%
NCSt 13.6 13% 16%
VirginiaTech 10.4 9% 10%
SMU 9.7 8% 8%
NorthCarolina 6.9 3% 3%
GeorgiaTech 5.6 1% 1%
California 2.8 1% 1%
Pittsburgh 2.2
Duke 1.1
Syracuse 0.5
BostonColl -2.4
Stanford -2.5
Virginia -3.5
WakeForest -4.6

Note: These are best approximations of Vegas lines, and the conf and playoff lines include juice, so true odds are lower

KEY NONCON games:

FSU v Memphis, a G5 contender
FSU @ Notre Dame
FSU v Florida

Clemson n Georgia
Clemson v South Carolina

Miami @ Florida

NC State n Tennessee

SMU v BYU
SMU v TCU

Louisville @ ND
Louisville v Kentucky

Virginia Tech @ Vandy
Virginia Tech v Rutgers who might be decent

UNC @ Minnesota

GT n ND
GT @ Georgia

Cal @ Auburn in a rematch of one of the worst games last year

Pitt @ Cincy
Pitt v WVU

BC @ Missouri
BC v Michigan State

UVA v Maryland
UVA @ ND

Wake v Ole Miss

Stanford v TCU
Stanford @ ND

The noncon slate features twelve games against the SEC and four against the B1G, so there will be plenty of opportunity to prove their footing against the "BIG-12"

FSU and Clemson are projected to be the class of the conference as usual, with DJU taking over for Jordan Travis at FSU

As I mentioned earlier, they play each other, but nobody else in common.

Miami and Louisville loaded up in the transfer market, bringing in QBs Cam Ward and Tyler Shough, and will be starting something like 9 and 11 transfers respectively

NC State is project to have one of their better seasons, and Virginia Tech returns almost their whole team from last year

SMU and UNC are wildcards

GT wasn't half bad last year and brings back a lot of talent, while Cal quietly brought in a solid transfer class as well.

Syracuse has a new coach and brought in Kyle McCrord from OSU, while Stanford will be in year 2 of the Troy Taylor era and also brings back basically their entire team

Wake and Virginia also have football teams.

Allegedly

I still can't believe Michigan did it.

I can't wait to have an absolute freeroll of a football season this year. Zero expectations, all upside.

If Michigan beats Ohio State for a 4th straight year with this team that might make me happier than winning the National Title.

BIG-12 PREVIEW

Team Rating Conf Playoff
Utah 16.4 29% 24%
KansasSt 15.4 24% 19%
OklahomaSt 13.5 11% 11%
Arizona 10.4 8% 6%
IowaSt 11.5 11% 10%
WVU 10.7 5% 4%
TCU 8.7 5% 5%
Kansas 11.2 11% 8%
UCF 11.4 9% 10%
TexasTech 7.4 8% 5%
Colorado 4.3 5% 3%
Baylor 2.2
BYU 1.5
Cincinnati -0.1
Houston -4.3
ArizonaSt -4.3

WELCOME TO THE BLOODBATH

Featuring incredible parity and cannibalism, NINE conference games (and four teams playing an accidental TENTH conference game), the Big-12 is likely to only get 1 team into the CFP

Key noncons:
Big-12 has an absolute nightmare of a noncon - lots of losable games against mid-majors and FCS teams, two cannibalism games against itself, and few games against the SEC/B1G to level the playing field. What few games they DO have are mostly on the road. Yuck.

Kansas State @ Tulane

Oklahoma State vs South Dakota State (FCS champion)
Oklahoma State vs Arkansas

Iowa State @ Iowa

WVU v Penn State
WVU v Albany (FCS semifinalist)
WVU @ Pitt

TCU @ Stanford
TCU @ SMU

Kansas @ Illinois

UCF @ Florida

Texas Tech @ Wazzu

Colorado v NDSU (FCS semifinalist)
Colorado @ Nebraska
Colorado @ Colorado State

Baylor v Air Force

BYU @ Wyoming
BYU @ SMU

Cincinnati v Pitt
Cincinnati @ Miami OH (MAC favorite)

Houston @ Oklahoma

Arizona State v Miss St

What's cool about this new playoff setup is even if we go 8-4 we should have maximum suspense the whole season cuz that will mean we're 8-3 heading into The Game vs an Ohio State team that should be ranked #1 by then given Georgia's tough schedule. If we beat the #1 team in the nation at their place we'll be in the playoffs at 9-3 imo.

People have often complained about how expanding the playoffs water downs the importance of the regular season but it's the opposite. It's now possible to go 8-4 where every one on your games actually mattered. Gonna be so many more meaningful games this year across the board.

This is better than the Steele preview

Is that still a thing? I dunno, I haven’t bought a magazine this millennium.

Thanks for all you do, GB!

thank you GB, you're a boss of ncaa football content
shame you suck at poker

We are so back

So this is the guy that basically forced Will Howard to flee town. Good to know.

Funny scenario that's very plausible this year. Michigan goes into The Game at 9-2 or 8-3 fighting for their playoff lives. Ohio State is 11-0 and already has a spot clinched in the Big Ten Championship game vs Penn State or Oregon. Ohio State will literally have nothing to play for. IOW no rational reason to play one starter vs Michigan since getting a playoff bye will be completely dependent on winning the Big Ten Championship game.

I know cultural inertia is a thing so I expect Ohio State to go all out vs Michigan but obviously they shouldn't. I wonder how many years it will take for Ohio State/Michigan to play that spot correctly and rest the starters and not care who wins. 10 years? 20 years?

Here for everyone to turn on Subprime and to watch unbridled chaos

As a Stanford fan I have nothing else

u could root against the SEC, BIG 10, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oregon, etc. - the true villains of CFB ahole fanbases, dickhead too rich donors and overhype in general.

I get that DEION cucked SF at the end of his career. But, my god man, that was a long time ago. There are a lot better causes to root against in 2024.

Seriously though. Holy ****. Their last 5 games are

v 1 Georgia
@ 4 Texas
v 13 LSU
v 6 Ole Miss
@ 10 Florida St

They also have

v 19 Miami
v 20 Texas AM
@ 15 Tenn

RIP Billy Napier

SF never beats Dallas in 94 without Deion. Deion put them over the hump. He was the key to them winning it all without Montana. SRM has to love him for that.

Sup, cfb?

Ordinarily I fear change. But…having heard what change is about to do to the University of Florida, I am starting to think I may enjoy these changes. Good lord, just tell them you won’t block Florida State and Missouri’s schedule can be yours!

Yes and I just order it now. While you still get some “ten years ago I predicted they’d win the conference and be in my top 10 PDR and they did both even making it all the way up to 8th(!)” it is, at least, better than it used to be due to the space needed for the listing of transfers. Costs something like $30.

I bought Phil Steele's magazine last year and I thought it was awful. Full of his own made up acronyms, it barely gave analysis just listed random things about each player. He did rank positional groups across the nation which I loved but I'd imagine other magazines/previews would do the same.

Nice, FSU leading the charge for the non-villains, I'll take it.

Steele was elite in like 2005 when it seemed like noone really factored in returning starters and the relative recruiting rankings of those starters. You could usually blanket bet his 10 most underrated teams for the first half of the season and do quite well.

you think oregon belongs next to clempson and ndomers on the specifically identified hate list?

He gives off Lamar Jackson vibes. His breakout game was against Texas Tech. His highlights that game make you think you're watching LJ at Louisville again.

Yea that guy's legit. Would sell my soul for Michigan to have him. I think Michigan fans hoping Ohio State isn't gonna be that great cuz they got a guy who was gonna lose his job at Kansas State are in for a rude awakening. Losing your job to THAT GUY doesn't mean you suck.

Still think Will Howard is good enough to lead Ohio State to a national championship and that's my prediction. Ohio State 16-0 for all the marbles. They're not a Big12 offense anymore. They've basically copied the Michigan model now. They got a veteran QB who can run and pass, they got the best RB tandem in the country and a veteran OL that should be one of the best in the country and their defense should be #1 in the nation. They're gonna pound the **** outta people.

Malachi not named starter for Boise. Pretty long brutal run of moves for him to settle in Idaho and still not get the spot.

In the B12 preview, I reversed the titles of the Conf and Playoff columns
Obviously for any P4 team, the odds of making the playoffs are higher than the odds of winning the conference

And now, a quick

B1G PREVIEW

Team Rating Playoff Conf
OhioSt 29.8 85% 38%
Oregon 27.5 75% 29%
PennSt 23.4 58% 17%
Michigan 21 40% 11%
usc 15.9 18% 4%
Wisconsin 13.9 7% 1%
Iowa 10.5 12% 2%
UCLA 5.8 1% 0%
Washington 9.3 6% 1%
Nebraska 7.4 9% 2%
Maryland 5.2 4% 1%
Minnesota 5.2 1% 0%
Rutgers 3.5 5% 1%
Illinois 0.1 2% 0%
NW -2.8 0% 0%
Purdue -1.4 0% 0%
MichiganSt -2.4 1% 0%
Indiana -4.5 1% 0%

The biggest story here is obviously the Ohio State superteam which features something like 7 potential first round NFL draft picks and another 10 guys behind them who will probably get drafted. At QB is Skylar Howard who (a) was awesome at K-State, and somehow also (b) probably wasn't going to win the starting job this year at K-State? One of Alabama's most valuable defenders Caleb Downs transferred in to anchor the secondary. On paper, this team is like the 2001 Miami Hurricanes defense, except on both sides of the ball.

Oregon is looking to finally break through and win a natty after two decades of consistent contending. Thankfully for them, they no longer have to play Utah, although they do have to play a Boise State team that they've never beaten

Behind them are Penn State who has beaten almost every non OSU/UM team they've played but can't seem to win the big one. Thankfully for them, they get to dodge Michigan this year, get Ohio State at home, dodge Oregon, and then have a winnable statement game against USC

Michigan is loaded with talent as usual, but lost something like 20 starters as well as their head coach. They play three of the preseason top-four teams.

USC is a wildcard replacing Caleb with Miller Moss who threw for about 500 touchdowns against Louisville in the bowl game. I am sure the offense will be fine under Riley, and they finally fired their DC and stocked up on 4* defensive transfers, so I imagine they'll be at least mediocre on that side of the ball (which would be a huge step up for them). They miss both Ohio State and Oregon, but play LSU in Vegas, and at Michigan, then get Penn State, Wisconsin and ND at home.

Tyler van Dyke is starting for Wisconsin, and Iowa's defense shut out the offense in the scrimmage, so more of the same there probably.

Dylan Raiola makes his debut at Nebraska, Washington also lost their entire program, and Maryland is still in the B1G in case you forgot.

The bad teams will be bad.

Key nonconference games:

Despite all of the "BIG 2" propaganda, the two conferences don't seem very interested in playing each other. Of the four SEC-B1G matchups, three were inherited. Nonetheless, only UCLA @ LSU projects to be a blowout on paper:

Michigan v Texas
UCLA @ LSU
USC n LSU
Wisconsin v Alabama

Four games against the Big-12, all of which should be pretty spicy in their own right:

Iowa v Iowa State
Nebraska v Colorado
Penn State @ WVU
Illinois v Kansas

Five of the most boring games possible against the ACC, although Rutgers @ VT could be sneaky interesting:

Maryland @ UVA
Michigan State @ BC
Minnesota v UNC
Northwestern v Duke
Rutgers @ VT

And then four games against ND and 2PAC:

USC v ND
Purdue v ND
Purdue @ Oregon State
Washington v Wazzu

it will be pretty boring if after improving from 1-11 to 4-8 in year 1, they improve again from 4-8 to 6-6 or 7-5 or something in year 2.

I currently have all 12 of their games between 25% and 75%, which I doubt has ever happened before.

If you factor in the fact that with all those transfers and hype, they could easily be 7 points better or 7 points worse than projected (which in itself is wild), 12-0 and 0-12 are both within the (extremely remote) realm of possibility