The NHL Thread
For the 5 of us who post NHL stuff, here you go. Officially the season starts Tuesday October 11, although there were tw
Is Mckenna for sure the #1 pick? I have some doubts and Maholtra I say ends up a better choice
Matthews in same position as Mcdavid, can demand a trade.
Don't worry guys good chance the Leafs fk up the pick.
they can demand all the trades they want, but they're under contract, so their only real options are playing or sitting out and earning $0
laffs probably should trade that bald bitch. i doubt they will, but it might be best to go full rebuild at this point. loilers should consider the same if mcbust is leaving, which he probably is. the longer you leave it, the less you likely get back
maybe if he gets a few more sexual assault accusations he'll get the trade he wants
Who do we have doing better next year Oilers or Leafs
Benson has given his teammates two layups
I've seen enough, move Cole off line 1. Give me Demi with Suzuki and Slaf or even Dach.
Every time Hutson makes a mistake they say "he learns fast and never makes the same mistake twice". If I were him, I would just punt 1 game and make every mistake possible, then he'll be unstoppable.
I've seen enough, move Cole off line 1. Give me Demi with Suzuki and Slaf or even Dach.
Every time Hutson makes a mistake they say "he learns fast and never makes the same mistake twice". If I were him, I would just punt 1 game and make every mistake possible, then he'll be unstoppable.
Wonder if Cole is hurt. So odd to be so dominant in regular season and shut down so much now. Series vs BUF should be more free flowing. He had more chances today than vs TB. Gotta bury, but yes MSL should be willing to separate Suz-Cauf if needed.
Oddly, I feel a bit better vs. Buffalo than TB. TB was just so stifling, but BUF allows us to do much more of what we want to do. May not translate to the series win, but I think we can win a couple games at least.
God damn Canadians are such punk ass bitches just win the game.
Oddly, I feel a bit better vs. Buffalo than TB. TB was just so stifling, but BUF allows us to do much more of what we want to do. May not translate to the series win, but I think we can win a couple games at least.
Agree, I'm not as worried. Being down 1-0 isn't great, but in a high flying open game, we have more skill. Just gotta get the studs going.
quackity quackity
i don't understand why buffalo is good
haven't paid much attention to hockey this year, but it seems they have an above average group of defenders but nothing amazing and outside of tage thompson nothing special on offense
looking at team stats, looks like they've been incredibly lucky
mid possession team
5th in shooting
9th in sv%
= tied for 3rd in pdo
mid powerplay (buoyed by sh%)
3rd best pk (driven by sv%)
top possession players: doan, dahlin, norris, benson, ostlund, tuch, kesselring, dunne, power, thompson
top skillers: metsa, tuch, norris, samuelsson, benson, quinn, thompson, byram, zucker, dahlin
good shooting is usually a mix of luck and skill, i'd say probably more of the latter
defence actually looks solid; dahlin, byram, samuelsson and power is a nice looking t4, and the depth guys might be ok too. health probably another reason as the top-4 d played 318/328 games during the season. a bunch of their best forwards were good too.
related: other than zucker, all their regular skaters are under 30 years old
It's interesting if you look at who were the luckiest teams in the league in terms of xGD compared to actual GD.
1. Boston +55 (meaning GD was 55 goals better than stats suggested it should have been)
2. Buffalo +44
...
5. Montreal +26
6. Tampa Bay +23
So it's possible that Montreal and Buffalo were just 2 fraudy teams that got to play 2 other fraudy teams.
In fact, if you look at the entire list of luckiest teams that made the playoffs, all are gone, except if they played another team from this list.
1. Boston (gone)
2. Buffalo (played Boston)
3. Avs (played LA)
5. Montreal (played TB)
6. TB (gone)
7. Stars (gone)
9 Wild (played Stars)
11. Penguins (gone)
13. Kings (gone)
The funny thing is that the "lucky" teams are still all matched up in the 2nd round.
Maybe it creates a betting opportunity where the 2 lucky teams that advance will be overvalued in their series.
The one instance of this we saw already was the "lucky" Pens getting bitchslaped by the "unlucky" Flyers, even though Pens had the better record.
^ great betting alpha but I refuse tk believe. Go Habs!
yeah when i saw that boston was still hanging in on the playoff race i was shocked, like really, they lost everyone but pasta and very surprised they didn't trade him to go full rebuild
yeah but there's a skill aspect to "luck". how much? idk
like do you think that the avs are good because they're the 3rd luckiest team itl, or do you think that "luck" is more of a product of them probably being the best team? the canucks were 2nd "unluckiest". were they actually unlucky, or are they just dogshit is every area of the game?
or another example, looking at the epl table the t5 teams are all "lucky", and 7 of the 8 worst teams are "unlucky". same with la liga, the t4 teams are "lucky", 4 of 5 worst teams are "unlucky". bundesliga, 8 of the t9 are "lucky", 7 of the 9 worst "unlucky". and so on
it's not all just dumb luck. good players are going to shoot and defend better than bad players. idk what the current analysis says, but i remember like 10 years ago ppl saying that hockey was something like 60% luck (so 40% skill?).
Basically, especially since the expected calculations are based on historical averages.
Of course, certain teams will actually run hot or cold over any given period of time. But the good teams will almost always run above “expectation” in the long run.
like do you think that the avs are good because they're the 3rd luckiest team itl, or do you think that "luck" is more of a product of them probably being the best team? the canucks were 2nd "unluckiest". were they actually unlucky, or are they just dogshit is every area of the game? or another example, looking at the epl table the t5 teams are all "lucky", and 7 of the 8 worst
The Avs were #1 in the league in xGD, their luck just helped them increase their gap further on the rest of the league. So yes, they're fundamentally a great team, aside from being lucky also.
In terms of some of the examples used here, like the Atlantic teams. It's possible that Buffalo, Montreal, and Boston were just average teams that capitalized on luck and there were teams that were as good or maybe even better that didn't get the luck and missed the playoffs.
I would expect though that some "luck" is baked in with good teams b/c theoretically they would have better players taking shots and thus more likely to score a 0.2 xG chance than a poor player taking that same chance.
Of course, certain teams will actually run hot or cold over any given period of time. But the good teams will almost always run above “expectation” in the long run.
I would think this to be the case also, but interestingly enough, the 2 unluckiest teams in the entire playoffs last year were Florida and Edmonton, and actually the 3rd and 4th unluckiest in the entire league. They of course ended up the Finals.
Edmonton has actually not had a "lucky" season for 10 years, but I suppose that can be explained by goaltending that is letting in way more goals than expected, more than offsetting the quality of their shot-takers every single year!
former GM Kevyn Adams should sue for wrongful termination
His firing was the catalyst for the run. Usually it’s a coach’s firing, for Buffalo it was the GM’s.
