NCAA Basketball Thread 2024-2025
Quick OP here just to get us up and running
Things to watch for this year:
1. Can UConn 3-peat? Hurley won back to back championships with Clingan, Tristen Newton, and company. Can he make it a third with only one returning starter?
2. Who will be this years national player of the year? Zach Edey was the best player I've seen play college basketball in my lifetime. People throw the term generational talent around alot and Edey was truly a generational talent winning back to back national player of the year awards. But, now he's gone. So who can win the award?
- the 5th year guards in Mark Sears(Alabama) and RJ Davis(UNC) are a good spot to start. Both elite shooters and engines of an offense, they should lead two really good teams.
- the 5th year centers in Hunter Dickinson(Kansas) and Ryan Kallbrenner(Creighton) are also viable options. They'll be the anchors to what should be two really good teams.
- The phenoms: Cooper Flagg(Duke), Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper(Rutgers), VJ Edgecombe(Baylor), and Tre Johnson(Texas) lead a loaded freshman class.
3. Who are the contenders?
Spoiler
Lettuce college basketball
yep...
We're live to
1 vs 2
1 vs 3
1 vs 2
1 vs 2/3
We need a term for this. Going with "Calipari Collapse." Undefeated 38-0 UK team in F4 finally went up 4 or 6 with a few minutes left and quit trying to score (2 straight possession shot clock violation). Blow game and undefeated season. Memphis NCAA Final against Kansas, blew what 9 point lead with how much time left? Blow in OT. Tonight they score once in last 5 minutes up 13 then blow in OT. I didn't see the game but from the box score up 13 with 5 minutes left they shot almost exclusively 3 pointers and missed them all but one. His title team with UK and Anthony Davis was wiping the court with Kansas, but he got scared and they quit playing. Won way closer than it should have been. I'm sure there are many more examples.
When I hype predicted this loss, I sure didn't think of this. The old Calipari bugaboo surfacing ... collapse in waning moments. I should have. This stuff is Shakespearean and this dude, with all the front porch of arrogance and cockiness, is afraid at winning time. Rick Pitino is as happy tonight as Tiger Woods was watching Adam Scott blow that British Open, if you get my drift.
Instead of next behavior "flat" ... I should have said next behavior collapse. Boy, that would have been a prediction.
The best part about Coach Cow blowing an undefeated season with a super team of super teams was how be bragged about not watching tape on Wisconsin because he was "only worried about getting [his] guys ready to play."
It really feels like Cal was one game from establishing a mega recruiting base again. Of course the money drives it now but he would have had both: the magic and the money. And from there launched.
Do you remember, I'm sure you do, him blowing that undefeated season by pulling his team up in the F4 semis? Should have been UK/Duke in the final game with UK undefeated. How is that for popcorn stuff?
Only my most painful sports memory by far (93 was the first UK team I remember following, one year away from Laettner being a traumtic childhood memory)
Only my most painful sports memory by far (93 was the first UK team I remember following, one year away from Laettner being a traumtic childhood memory)
But the way he pulled them up when they just had a hell of a rally maybe 10-0 or something and Wisy looking rag tired, UK surging on all cylinders, and their depth abusing people all year. Slow down ... Wisco recovers and wins.
Beard v Izzo is strong
But the way he pulled them up when they just had a hell of a rally maybe 10-0 or something and Wisy looking rag tired, UK surging on all cylinders, and their depth abusing people all year. Slow down ... Wisco recovers and wins.
Idiot fans blame Calipari for not playing Ulis and Booker down the stretch in that game. Booker was far from what he was in the NBA. Booker and Ulis just couldn't guard in that game when UK was shifting constantly
But yes Cal is to blame for slowing that game down. Wisconsin had no answer for quickly feed the post to Towns. Instead shot clock violation happened one too many times
I never thought I'd say this, let me know if you think I've gone crazy, but I'd like to hear what Charles Barkley has to say about the Duke/Bama matchup. I guess Sir Charles is quite popular, but I don't like him and see him as mostly a blow hard. But he's come up with some things over the years in the NCAAs, especially on Duke.
One year Duke was a 1-seed as usual, was facing some 4-seed or so if I remember right, Duke a solid favorite, and he predicted a one sided win by the other team."Yeah, STFU," I thought.
Duke got manhandled. Hmm, I thought ... Big Chuck not all hot air. His big point on the game was "Just too much difference in NBA talent on these teams." Right now I want to say it might have been Arizona, but I might have tonight's game on my brain. Anyway, he might have a similar analysis of this game, and I'm sure I'll get a chance to see who he picks, why, and if he says anything about NBA talent.
That's a strong line, Duke - 6.5. Of course Bama will probably snap back to the mean on 3's. They better. We know who is faster. If you are faster, way more battle tested, and hitting 3's, you aren't a 6.5 point dog.
None of this is to say I like Bama. Don't believe in them or Auburn or Tennessee when the lights are brightest. Just saying it's a strong statement with the line.
My advanced breakdown of the Auburn-Michigan game:
For Auburn it's about keeping it close, hanging around til the last few minutes, then hoping to be on the right side of variance and stealing a win. That's the only path to victory I see for them.
For Michigan it's about imposing their will. Play a clean game. Don't beat themselves. Build a double digit lead by halftime. Destroy all hope for the enemy.
My advanced breakdown of the Auburn-Michigan game:
For Auburn it's about keeping it close, hanging around til the last few minutes, then hoping to be on the right side of variance and stealing a win. That's the only path to victory I see for them.
For Michigan it's about imposing their will. Play a clean game. Don't beat themselves. Build a double digit lead by halftime. Destroy all hope for the enemy.
So I guess you think Mich + 9.5 is pretty strong?
No team has ever beaten an opponent 3 times in a season as the underdog all 3 times. Prove me wrong.
(Tenn over UK if I remember right was something like -350, -170, now -200. Lost the first two.)
Spoiler
It's probably happened several times at least with a very small favorite.
This season, Georgetown was a KenPom favorite in all three of their losses to DePaul.
Back in 2018, Ohio State lost three times to Penn State as favorites.
My advanced breakdown of the Auburn-Michigan game:
For Auburn it's about keeping it close, hanging around til the last few minutes, then hoping to be on the right side of variance and stealing a win. That's the only path to victory I see for them.
For Michigan it's about imposing their will. Play a clean game. Don't beat themselves. Build a double digit lead by halftime. Destroy all hope for the enemy.
I'm not guaranteeing an Auburn win, and if I were betting on the game, I'd rather take Michigan and the points, but this is LOLtastic.
Tbf, ILP is usually right when it comes to these things.
Spoiler
Or is it usually wrong?
It's one of the greatest locks in the history of sports. Last time I saw a spread this ridiculous was in college football 2023. Oregon was a 10 pt favorite over Washington on a neutral field in the Pac 12 championship game. Washington had already beat them in the regular season. That game was a 50-50 game at best for Oregon. The 10 pt spread was an insult to humanity. Almost predictably Washington beat them again. That was the dumbest spread I've seen in 46 years of my life. Auburn -9.5 is pretty close to that level. I don't see them winning let alone covering.
Tbf, ILP is usually right when it comes to these things.
Spoiler
Or is it usually wrong?
AI would say I could be right:
In a hypothetical confrontation, a tiger would likely win against a wolverine due to its significantly larger size, powerful bite, and superior strength, although a wolverine's agility and tenacity could pose a challenge.
May the most tenacious team win!
Odds are dropping on the strength of ILP's opinion. 8' at most places and 7' at 1 place I saw. Get the +325 ML while you can. I did think Auburn was the most vulnerable #1 seed going into the tourney. Time will tell.
