2024/2025 NFL Survivor Contests
I'm planning to play the Circa Survivor for the first time this coming season and have already booked my travel and arranged my proxy service to make my picks for me. Last year I made it to weeks 14, 15, and 16 in DraftKings various survivor pools (the $100, $10, and $1 entries). Does anyone know or have experience regarding how players communicate with one another to discuss chops/deals as it gets down near the end? Is player contact info public?
On another note, is it pretty much a given that a chop is realistic nearly every year sometime between weeks 14 and 16? I've tracked the results going back to 2020 and that's what it looks like. If you are banking on a chop without having to play weeks 17 and 18, it probably makes sense to not leave any top tier teams for the final 2 weeks, as there's a better than average chance the prize pool, or most of it, will be chopped.
Thanks all!
I need some help here. I am looking for proper Survivor strategy and not a read on who is going to win the Eagles-Browns game.
I have 3 entries left in a pool of over 4K. There are 54 total entries remaining.
It's just a guess, but I would expect a range of 20-35 to take the Eagles this week. The 2nd most popular pick should be the Texans. After that, it will be the Falcons.
Those 3 teams should get to around ~45 of the 54 and then weird stragglers make up the rest.
If there was a book written on Survivor strategy, is it correct to completely avoid the Eagles if I expect 40-55% of the pool to take them? Let's start there and potentially converse after a response or two.
I need some help here. I am looking for proper Survivor strategy and not a read on who is going to win the Eagles-Browns game.
I have 3 entries left in a pool of over 4K. There are 54 total entries remaining.
It's just a guess, but I would expect a range of 20-35 to take the Eagles this week. The 2nd most popular pick should be the Texans. After that, it will be the Falcons.
Those 3 teams should get to around ~45 of the 54 and then weird stragglers make up the rest.
If there was a book written on Su
go here, and punch in your projections to the ev calculator: https://www.survivoratlas.com/contests/2...
i punched in some for your based on your guesstimates. PHI seems bad.
Did a 24 hour trip to Vegas. Got Circa entries with winners circle. Craps paid for 50% of my entries. Already feel like freerolling. Contrarian time.
made it to week 18, flamed out with packers.
contrary to posts in thread, proxy never asked for anything or strong armed me near the end. obviously would've tipped them generously if packers won. sadly walking away empty handed but was a fun ride.
i sent some videos in to the doc people. will run it back with them next year. gonna be a long 8 months.
oh wow, that's quite an accomplishment house
did you take them up on their credit lines for hedging?
Wow, I'm not sure what I would have done there. How many entrants were live on wk 18 may I ask?
Wow, I'm not sure what I would have done there. How many entrants were live on wk 18 may I ask?
The 5 that had Bucs available took them
The 2 that had Packers available took them
The 8 on the Falcons was the best available w% team they had remaining
The remaining 3 didn't have TB/GB/ATL available, so landed on IND/ARI
BAL/DEN/WSH were fully burned
That must have been a wild ride watching the ending of those early games. F*ng Bears make that FG to end their crap season , Bucs down by 10 in 3rd qtr, Falcons losing throughout, Colts go to OT.
Assume ATL was 77% win equity, and ARI 65%. If I know there are likely 7 other entrants going with ATL, at best I'm getting a 12.5% split if I pick ATL. If I pick ARI, at best I'm getting a 50% split. Of course I understand the calcs are not as simple as that, and I may have already burned ARI.
At face it seems worthwhile to surrender the 12 % points to take ARI, but I guess its a bit of the prisoner dilemma with the ATL guys. But for nobody in the ATL group to take ARI surprises me a bit.
A factor leaning ATL is the CAR hedge pays 140% of the SF hedge.
Assume ATL was 77% win equity, and ARI 65%. If I know there are likely 7 other entrants going with ATL, at best I'm getting a 12.5% split if I pick ATL. If I pick ARI, at best I'm getting a 50% split. Of course I understand the calcs are not as simple as that, and I may have already burned ARI.
At face it seems worthwhile to surrender the 12 % points to take ARI, but I guess its a bit of the prisoner dilemma with the ATL guys. But for nobody in the ATL group to take ARI surprises me a bit.
A facto
most people could've gone ARI.
one of the ATL guys could've gone LAC, and one could've gone SEA. those were nice EV islands, but scary clicks, especially the LAC one, since picks were due around half time of the CIN/PIT game.
ARI seemed to be the safest IMO. Purdy was ruled out early in the week. SEA was probably safe once Geno was a go, as it seemed common knowledge McVay was resting several starters and win equity was 72%. I agree LAC was a risk.
Actually SEA had to be the best alternative pick for that ATL guy, as Rams hedge was in +260 range and he had a free roll for a scoop.
Did Circa raise money line limits at their book to encourage hedging?
