Banger's 2025 Football Picks

Week 0 Record: 1-1

Weird spot in the K-State game with the early Edwards "injury" and the weather/poor field conditions, but make no mistake I-St deserved the cover and it was mostly due to a very well coached game from their staff. I would not sleep on K-State going forward, however...they will cover more than they don't the rest of the way.

Pretty easy under the total in Stanford/Hawaii. Hawaii is improved and scrappy, but Stanford is a historically bad football team and will be lucky to win two games this season.

I will be back on Thursday for a college pick of the day, another on Friday, and 2-3 for Saturday.

Thursday, August 28th

BEST BET: Buffalo +17.5
Will be one of the best in the MAC this year and has a good stable of dynamic RBs to help keep the clock moving. Minnesota is usually slow early offensively but has a stout defense. Expect a grind which favors Buffalo, who is getting at least three points too many in my view.

Bonus Pick: Akron +5.5 ... Wyoming doesn't scare anyone right now

ESPN Watchers Degen Picks: Take Boise St. -5.5 and Nebraska/Cincy Under 51.5 - if you have to play these.

Thursday 8/28 recap & Friday 8/29 Picks

Thursday: Pretty easy winner on the Best Bet with Buffalo - Akron was covering for 56 minutes and gave up a late TD. Not sure why I bothered with that trash game. Boise St was god awful (I did say only play it if you had to) but if you degens lost that one you got it back with an easy Under in Nebraska/Cincy.

FRIDAY BEST BET: Michigan St. -20.5
Western Michigan has had too much turnover in both their roster and coaching staff, and Michigan St. should have an easy time scoring, especially through the passing game.

Others: I like Colorado-Georgia Tech to go Over 51.5. I'm confident in it, almost made it the Best Bet until doing a little more research on Mich St game...I'm sure a lot of you have interest in the Auburn-Baylor game. I think Baylor will be a decent team in the Big 12 and has a really good QB, but the SEC-level physicality of Auburn probably makes me lean to them as the -2.5 favorite. That said, Auburn's inability to choose a QB yet is worrisome. I personally will stay away from this one.

Saturday early bird: Purdue -17.5 vs Ball St.

Good luck, back late Friday night to recap and give out the main picks for Saturday.

Do you have a Google Doc or somewhere we can see your record in past years? Thanks TB

I do not, I'd estimate I've won around 52-53% lifetime. Back in 2008, an eon ago I realize, I did something similar to this on Pocket 5s (the defunct poker social site) and had an insane run something like 28-12 that season or something close to it. I bet every season but some much more casually than others. Predictably I usually run at or below 50% those years. I'm locked in this season and have a goal for at least 55% winners this season and hopefully much better so we can really beat the vig.

Friday recap: Ouch

Michigan St dominates Western Mich, then the MSU backup QB who threw 1 pass for 1 interception last yr, comes on in garbage time and throws a pick 6 on his first pass this year for the cheap backdoor cover for the underdog. GT/Col over does not get there, perhaps in some part due to terrible clock management from Deion. My Auburn lean should've been the best bet. Such is life early in the CFB season. On to the first big Saturday.

BEST BETS: Texas +1.5, Toledo +10, Clemson/LSU Over 57.5

Texas is the best team in the country and everyone will know it by Saturday afternoon. Somewhat ironically, my only concern is with Arch's consistency at QB, and if that's the biggest worry for a team that is absolutely stacked on the lines, the best LB room in the nation, and explosiveness at every other position group, then we're in good shape. Yes the game is in Columbus, but this is a drastically different OSU from the one we saw hoist the trophy, at least right away.

Toledo is another high quality MAC team like Buffalo, the best bet on Thursday, and will give a backsliding Kentucky program all they can handle.

I do like the Clemson defense a lot, and one could generally argue that chemistry and timing will be lacking for offenses early on, but I don't think that applies to these two squads with the high skill level and returning experience for both offenses. Look for a Klubnik vs Nussmeier shootout to develop.

I also gave Purdue -17.5 as an early bird last night.

Leans - not playing these personally
Alabama -13.5 - will FSU even be able to score a touchdown? I'll guess one and say Bama 30-10.
Mississippi St -13.5 - initially they have too much for Southern Miss, who will better down the line
South Dakota +14.5 - let's see if Iowa St drank too much Jameson and has an Ireland hangover
Iowa -37.5 - taking on a bad Albany team - my read is the Hawkeyes offense will actually be semi-competent this year, and it better be to cover this number

One more game to keep an eye on - Oklahoma -35.5 - I don't want to take the Sooners vs an FCS playoff team, but I am anxious to see what new QB John Mateer looks like. He's a good darkhorse candidate to win the Heisman at +3000. I took a $50 flyer on him to win $1500.

Saturday recap - Best Bets 2-2
Texas will be fine and dominate the rest of the regular season, but my concern about Arch wasn't nearly big enough. He looked terrible and if this isn't a one off with him opening on the road vs an obviously great Ohio St team, the Longhorns will be in trouble in the playoff. Toledo gets a nice backdoor cover, Purdue was a no sweat winner, and LSU/Clem I was way off.

Heisman watch - Oklahoma's Mateer apparently woke up the oddsmakers as he dropped from +3000 to +1600 after Saturday's performance. I love my early play on him and while the odds cut isn't ideal, he's still a decent pick at this point, especially with the fact that Manning just burned up any Heisman tickets on him today.

SUNDAY'S BEST BET
South Carolina -7.5 - the SEC has been generally impressive so far, with Alabama the obvious exception. (Again, Texas will be fine and the defense played outstanding)
SC will handle an outmatched Virginia Tech and LaNorris Sellers may start his own strong Heisman campaign on Sunday.

I want to call Miami +3 a best bet but I can't quite pull that trigger. However, I think ND is in for a major fight and if I played this, I'd just go ahead and take the Canes on the money line.

Finally, back to Alabama. Something has felt very off in the DeBoer era. The inexplicable losses to Vandy and Oklahoma last year, not to mention a terrible effort vs South Florida, and on Sat vs FSU all featured a team full of 5-stars that looked unprepared, undisciplined, and lacking aggressiveness. Not to overreact to game 1 in year 2, but I do not believe he is right for this program and Bama's chances at the playoff are all but dead this year. They will lose to Georgia in a few weeks and that will be that.

NOW WE'RE COOKIN

Sunday's Best Bet South Carolina -7.5 comes through - also got the Miami money line winner - best day yet

Monday's pick
TCU -3.5 - I'm going to buy the 1/2 point just in case but don't think we'll need it. With all due respect to Belichick, TCU brings back a ton of starters, an experienced QB who threw for a ton of yards last year (and a lot of his targets return), and continuity as they have largely avoided the portal and retained its veterans. That chemistry should carry them to a game 1 victory to a portal-heavy Carolina who will need some time to gel.

NFL coming Thursday and I already have a winning pick identified in that one. I can tell already I do not like Friday's Chiefs-Chargers and may not have a pick there. Also, Saturday's college slate has some very bad initial mistakes on the odds and I am hoping they don't change much. I will update as we get into the week.

Saturday early bird: Illinois -3 vs Duke

Hitting our stride with the big TCU winner tonight. Great Sunday & Monday after an up-and-down start to the week.

Wednesday evening I will share my pick for Thursday's Cowboys vs Eagles, and I have a college play I really like for Friday already. Saturday's college games look good from a handicapping perspective, and I can't wait for a full schedule of NFL games on Sunday and feel confident in 2-3 games that day. Best time of the year!

Thursday NFL Opener

BEST BET: Cowboys/Eagles OVER 47.5

The Eagles should be firing on all cylinders in week 1, and besides the regular cast I am looking forward to seeing good contributions from two breakout players - Jahan Dotson now has a year in the scheme under his belt and should be open a lot, and Will Shipley is going to be perfect in the backup RB role. However, despite their strength on defense, the secondary has had many changes and this plays into the primary way Dallas can attack them. The addition of George Pickens will achieve one of two things - it will free up Ceedee, or Pickens will have a monster year. I think both of them are in for big nights, especially if the game script is Philly gets a lead early and Dallas has to play catchup. The Dallas running game is also going to be putrid, despite having a decent O-line. As to the Dallas defense, the loss of Parsons might be getting overblown some but the secondary is in shambles and we haven't even started yet.

I can see you using this as justification for laying the 8.5 points and taking the Eagles, which is fine, but I like the total much more.

Final: Eagles 38, Cowboys 23

Losing the over in Eagles/Cowboys is a lot like having pocket aces, flopping a set on a rainbow A-9-4 board, then losing to 3-6 when a 5 and 7 runout.

41 points at halftime, 44 right before the weather stoppage, then there was a critical fumble by Cowboys backup RB Miles Sanders near the Eagles 10 yard line. A few CeeDee Lamb drops and no points in the last 20 minutes did us in. I do feel the handicapping was solid just a fluke result.

FRIDAY'S GAMES
BEST BETS
College: James Madison +14 - I like Louisville a lot but this will be a test from the Dukes.

NFL: Chiefs/Chargers Under 46.5 - I wouldn't hate taking the Chargers +3 either, Jim Harbaugh is 5-0 in NFL openers and always has his team ready to go.
SD will at least attempt to control the field through the run game, but has a few extra receiving weapons this year that can keep drives alive. The Chiefs missing Rice is a pretty significant factor to a total play as well. I'm a big fan of both defenses and they will be dominant early on.

Friday Recap: 2-1

By the time I bet JMU this morning they were up to 14.5, and they actually went off at +15.5. Rather easy cover considering they led 14-6 in the 3rd and were stopped at the Louisville 1 yard line at the finish. The Under did not hit in Chargers/Chiefs unfortunately, but the Chargers +3 were solid the whole way.

Saturday College

BEST BETS: Texas -36.5, BYU -20.5, Rice +14, Illinois -2.5, Kansas St -17, UNLV ML (+1.5)
Texas will crush a hapless San Jose - Rice brings a new-look rushing attack that should control time of possession vs a Houston team I'm not sure should be favored by this much - Illinois is a sneaky contender in the Big 10, won't be easy at Duke but they should win by a touchdown or so - Kansas State will finally break out vs an Army that suffered too many personnel losses - UNLV's rushing attack will further gash UCLA and put DeShaun Foster firmly on the hot seat
When BYU came out -17.5 I jumped on it immediately. The line was at least 10 points short, and at 20.5 is still a TD+ out of whack. BYU 45, Stanford 10

It's a huge slate of games and you have to avoid playing too much. By way of offering some input and/or leans -
-Michigan at Oklahoma - I like the Under 43.5 but if I HAD to pick a side I'd take Mateer and Oklahoma. Venables should have something defensively for the freshman Mich QB.
-Mississippi State +6.5 vs Arizona State - this is an improved Miss St and Arizona St lacks a Skattebo - look for a shootout that goes down to the wire
-For some of the same reasons I like Texas, you can probably safely lay the 35.5 with Alabama
-I had Purdue as a best bet last week - this week they will have a very tough time covering 19.5 vs a tough FCS Southern Illinois
-I live in Missouri and I can't shake the feeling that everything about the game tomorrow is a setup - Kansas +5.5 seems appealing and will probably look great most of the way, and then Mizzou will skate by somehow - I don't like the game as a bet but it will be fun to watch
-Ole Miss "should" cover 9.5 vs Kentucky but your balls are bigger than mine if you wager on that
-Iowa +3.5 is tempting but there's no way I trust the Iowa offense here, despite all the offseason chatter that it was much improved - not so much so far it seems

Good luck - be back Saturday night with a recap and NFL picks but for now, the NFL Early Bird: Arizona -6.5 at New Orleans

Post-morning kickoff thoughts - I'm 1-1 so far, as despite Arch throwing for 4 and running for 1, he and the offense were sloppy again and Texas does not quite get there on the big number. I am really starting to worry about Texas' lack of running game more than him even - understanding Wisner didn't play but the depth should be able to run more effectively than this on SJST - but any predictions of a Longhorn natty were based on Manning not looking like a sidearmed goofball half the time. He can read a defense I'll give him that, as a Manning no surprise there. If he throws for 4 TDs at Florida in a few weeks I'll rescind this.

However, my main thought is about the Illinois comfortable winner. I gave it as an early bird best bet early in the week. Then all week long I'm hearing a ton of ESPN types talking up Duke. It made no sense to me as I thought Illinois should be a 7 pt favorite not -2.5. Just something to think about whenever you hear shills on the "worldwide leader in sports" trying to influence you. Iowa did cover by a 1/2 pt but what an ugly game. Oh and this Baylor-SMU game is nuts.

Hoping for 4-0 coming in!

SATURDAY RECAP - BEST BETS 3-3
I'm done with K-State, something stinks in Manhattan - congrats Army...nice ML win with UNLV, and BYU didn't play very well but still won by 24, the line was indeed off by a touchdown. Rice played well for a half then ran out of gas.

Meanwhile I'm proud of my "leans" handicapping which was pristine
-Oklahoma covers and it stays under
-Miss St covers and it indeed goes down to the wire
-Alabama smashed their number, twice
-Purdue doesn't get there
-Nailed the Kan/Miz game script, glad I stayed away - a Mizzou bet, which I thought would eventually come in, would've driven me nuts for 3 hours
-Another good no bet on Ole Miss who only won by 7
-Iowa's 3.5 is exactly what it needed as it lost 16-13

NFL TIME

BEST BETS: Cardinals -6.5, Bengals/Browns Over 47.5, Jets +3, Denver -8.5

Arizona is a team on the rise, improving rapidly on both sides of the ball, and seems to have found a legit coach - New Orleans will play hard but the cupboard is bare, the talent differential between these two teams is extreme.
Unless the Bengals have magically done a 180 on defense, Joe Flacco is going to cook here, and Joe Burrow may throw for 4+ TDs on the first stop on his way to ***BEST BET ALERT*** an MVP season - get down on those futures.
The Jets game is the first one so far I've taken where it's not the handicapping that let me to a pick, it's mostly a gut feel. Something tells me the Steelers Aaron Rodgers experiment will need some time to come together, the offense will simply not be ready. Meanwhile we have two tough defenses slugging it out and Justin Fields is the other QB. You could take the under but it's been set very low, the only game all weekend in the 30s at 38.
Denver will roll - I can't see Tennessee scoring much on the best defense in the league, and Bo Nix will continue to improve, now with added offensive weapons.

I am not picking the Sunday night game officially, but I will be pulling for the Bills, on which I have a large Super Bowl future.

Leans
-GB to win at home - don't want to play this but if i did I'd just go money line
-I don't like the Patriots game, will be raining and both teams have so many new pieces - I do not think Jeanty will do much the first time out
-Miami should win at Indy, but I don't think they will, could be high scoring
-A lot of sharps seem to like the Giants - they certainly should be stout defensively and the Wash offense has some question marks, at least early
-Watching the 49ers with great interest and I don't fear the Seahawks at all - but I can't take them with the CMC and WRs uncertainty - maybe a reason to take Sea ML at home

Good luck!

Week 1 early games halftime thoughts

Arizona, Browns over, and Jets covers are on schedule

Miami is a joke and hipster McDaniel might be the first coach fired

Pick up "Bill" Croskey-Merritt for fantasy team

If my math is correct, every game except Jets-Steelers has gone under the total. As a remedy, besides someone suing the books for criminally high totals, I think an over is due to hit and it might as well be on SNF with two of the very best running the show. Take Bills-Ravens Over 50.5, even with the poor number. Should be 47-ish. Look for totals to come way down next week and if they don't, we'll know what to do.

2-2 on Best Bets today, Broncos barely miss covering and I wish the Bengals had lost cause they didn't deserve a W.

3-2 on Sunday, and now 15-12 on the season 55%. Feel like we can do a little better going forward but I'll take the small edges over time.

What an insane comeback by the Bills - easy Over, glad I changed my mind and played it. I picked them to win the Super Bowl and go over 11.5 wins, this is huge for both of those. Yes the defense will need to tighten up a lot, but two starting quality corners were out tonight. Every other position group besides the secondary looks very solid and won't have to face the Ravens again til the AFC title game, and this is also big for home field.

Monday's Best Bet: Chicago Bears ML (+1.5) - I originally wanted to pick the game to go under, but two things changed my mind. First, so many unders on Sunday, this total has dropped a point already to 43.5 and will probably drop some more. Second, I already liked the Bears to win outright, and then I saw the Lions game. Yes, they miss Ben Johnson, and the Bears receiving weapons will shine this year due to his creativity. Also, I think De'Andre Swift is in line for a big year as well as he gets the benefit of the Gibbs package. Finally, the Bears have a lot of veteran depth and speed on defense that will mess with JJ McCarthy in his pro debut, on the road in prime time no less.
Bears 24, Vikings 17

A 4th quarter collapse dooms the MNF pick of the Bears who were easily covering/winning for 3 qtrs. This has been something of a trend with several picks this year that I still think were handicapped properly, but the important thing is to stick with the process, and understand that win or lose, it is usually a small margin (especially in the NFL) and like poker, there will be luck and random variance involved. One adjustment I am making is looking more for the layups like BYU and Illinois last week, which lines are so far off that you have to play them. Outside of those, you simply have to trust your handicapping and hope things break your way for 4 quarters. Unfortunately, while I like these Thursday picks below, the lines are pretty close to accurate. Maybe NC State should've only been about -5.5 ish but I would be taking Wake here regardless. Green Bay is a tough number that's right where it should be.

15-13 for the season entering this week

THURSDAY'S PICKS
College - Wake Forest +7 - I just think NC State is a tad overrated and while it's a short distance, does have to travel to WF on a short week. Wake is not a great team but with Robby Ashford at QB and a speed merchant RB in Demond Claiborne they will have a puncher's chance to win outright. Take the points.

NFL - Green Bay -3.5 - this to me is one defense vs which Jayden Daniels will not be able to bail out his offense on many 3rd/4th downs like he did so often last year and last week vs the Giants. Even if Parsons only plays about half the snaps again, he adds an element to an already stiff GB def that Washington's skill position players will have trouble beating for big gains. Offensively the Packers present so many more options and problems for the Wash defense that didn't get tested at all by Russell Wilson.

Saturday early bird - Texas Tech -23.5 - it's a big number but considering TT will drop at least 50 I'm not too worried about it.

Polymarket odds have Oregon to win CFP @8%. Seems underpriced to me, but I’m holding off until I see how they look at Northwestern.

I think that's good odds - especially considering LSU of all teams has shorter odds.

Going by one book's prices rn
Ohio St +600: Not bad and they are really tough, but something tells me they won't get it done with this QB
Penn St +600: tempting but they always find a way to blow it
Georgia +650: keep an eye on them, even if they blow out Tennessee (I might be leaning that way) these odds won't move down much
Texas +750: I've made my feelings known about them plenty and even with the improved price can't add to my current position - this is Arch or bust and that's concerning
LSU +800: not gonna happen
Oregon +1200: I've overlooked this somehow, good price and worth the shot
Alabama +1400: I grew up there, and am a fan - but I don't think it will happen

Anybody higher - no real chance EXCEPT...you can get Oklahoma +3500, the same price as the Michigan team they just spanked and they have a puncher's chance at making the playoff, even with that ridiculous schedule.

If you really wanna gamble, USC $6000 bet $50 to win 3k, and Illinois +10k, you mean I get 2k if I throw $20 at this? Worth it. Both may make the playoff.

Thursday Recap: 1-1
Unfortunate close loss with WF, led 24-17 at half but couldn't keep it going in a 34-24 loss. Easy win with the Pack however. Handicapping no long gains for Wash on offense vs a GB defense that plays an aggressive and effective zone vs a mobile QB like Jayden was the key to the win here. It takes time but finding accurate unit mismatches is big.

Friday's Best Bet: UCLA -15.5
We get the benefit of a few key things in this one, UCLA is actually improving, sad as that is. We get line depression from their 0-2 start and inflation for New Mexico from their cover two weeks ago at Michigan. UCLA wins 40-20.

I can't choose a winner in Colorado/Houston. The move probably is Under 44.5 honestly, Houston defense is legit. I swore I wouldn't play K-State again and I won't, in fact they might be in for another L in the desert vs Arizona. That said if you have to play this you probably want AZ or Over 54.5. I'm staying away.

There are two college lines on Saturday that are off by about a touchdown, I'll share those on Friday night.

Saturday's Picks
Clemson/GT Under 51.5 - USC/Purdue Over 59.5 - Georgia -4 - Texas Tech -23.5 - Texas St +17.5 - UAB -11.5

Clemson defense is playing great and the offense is sputtering. USC may score 50 themselves and Purdue might not be too far behind, call it 51-34 USC. Georgia will continue to give Tenn the little brother treatment. Texas Tech should drop 50+ and win by at least 30, this is the first line off by a touchdown. Texas St. is the second, should be maybe an 11 pt dog. Finally, you can learn things from losing with a team earlier in the season. Akron is utterly impotent offensively and UAB showed some value in their battle with Navy.

Sunday's Picks
Jax/Cin Over 48.5 - Bears +6.5 - Steelers -3 - Saints ML - Broncos -2

Missed on a Cincy over last week, will not be denied this week in a total that should be set around 51. The Bears will hang around in the Ben Johnson Bowl. The 49ers will not win twice in a row on the road, without Brock Purdy to boot. Steelers game is not so much a vote for them, even though they looked fine last week, especially offensively, as it is against Seattle, they are in for a long season. The Saints will play very hard early this season and will pull off the upset, take the +3 if you'd like. The Broncos/Colts game is a textbook example of getting line value from Den performing poorly and not covering, and Indy smashing the Fins who were godawful. Denver's defense will have an answer for all of the Colts' threats and Bo Nix will get on track.

Other leans/thoughts
-a lot of action on Temple +24, I'm not a fan but that's a big number for Oklahoma on the road in a sandwich game
-I like Louisiana +27.5 at Mizzou but wanted the line to be around 30, never moved so I'm light on this one
-want to play Miami but -17.5 vs a clearly tough USF is too much for me
-Ark vs Ole Miss should be fun and I'd probably take the points there
-Kentucky should cover its big number but couldn't make it a Best Bet
-Vandy/SC, your guess is as good as mine, but I do know Vandy has come a long way and will give them all they can handle
-Boston College should give Stanford the business but I'm taking a week off from targeting the Cardinal

-Ravens -11.5 is a lot of points in an NFL game and still probably not enough for the Browns to cover
-Buffalo wins but I don't know about 6.5
-I like Arizona in general and same as Buffalo, should win but might not cover
-something tells me the Eagles get the Chiefs again but KC is too clutch at home for me to take em
-Falcons/Vikes I'd probably take the home team here too

2-4 & 1&4 man what a crap weekend. Worst part is my leans were on it. Have to make some real adjustments going forward.

Monday Best Bet: TEXANS -2.5
It might be a shootout but either way I like the Texans defense and am keeping fingers crossed that Stroud regains some touch he hasn't really shown in quite a while.

No offering on Chargers/Raiders.

Baseball bonus pick Arizona Diamondbacks -144 vs SF

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