Banger's 2025 Football Picks
Once things really get rolling I'll release my college and pro picks here every Thursday-Monday all season.
CFB Week 0
Thursday pick
Buffalo/Miami Over 50.5
Friday pick
Oklahoma St -10.5
Game of the Year - North Texas -2.5 vs Army
Led 21-0, then 38-28 with 3 min left and Army backed up and facing 4th down - thanks to improbable Army long TD pass, and a horrible coaching decision by NT to run the ball (and fumbling) when Army was out of timeouts and kneeling would've run all but 20 seconds off the clock, it then took overtime to get the cover. In the end we cashed the ticket and that's what matters.
NFL Week 3 Picks
NFL Totals have been drastically adjusted downward. We exploit this by taking Falcons/Panthers Over 43.5 - total should be around 47.
The Houston Texans have looked really bad so far, especially offensively. However I think they get the outright W at Jax so I am taking Texans ML.
It's not necessarily a "Game of the Year" but 49ers -2.5 is easy pickings. McCaffrey is back, Pearsall is becoming an elite WR, Mac Jones is capable, and the Niners defense should have a good plan for Kyler Murray and his anemic receiving corps.
Sunday night - no play for me but if I HAD to, I guess I'd take the Giants and the points. The Chiefs offense is scuffling bigtime and the Giants defensive front could cause them some problems.
Due to both teams’ abilities to take maps and the potential for momentum swings, the series is likely to exceed 3.5 maps with multiple map wins for JD Gaming.
Tonight for some added juice I'm taking the Cardinals +110 ML tonight. Seahawks getting too much love from the press after a beatdown of the hapless Saints. They are getting healthier while Arizona has a couple key injuries, but a few points here. Road teams are 15-25 on Thursdays, and we are getting at least 1.5 points too many. Seahawks traveling while Cards slept in their beds all week. Also, I had a full season outlook on AZ that has not changed after 3 games, which specifically is Jonathan Gannon's defense would continue the massive improvement arc and I've seen nothing yet to discourage me on that front. Need a breakout game from Murray and/or Benson tonight to ensure a win but not necessarily both. Alternately you could play under 43.5 but not a huge fan of that.
College bonus pick is East Carolina/Army Over 52.5. ECU's rush defense is leaky and Army's defense can't stop anything.
Rough stretch. We get back on track tonight.
TCU +3 at Arizona St - TCU is a well oiled machine so far in all phases, but especially the passing game. A-St has had some breakdowns especially in the loss to Miss St, and generally speaking has looked clunky and a bit off so far.
Just leans on the other 2 games tonight - FSU/VA Under 61, and Oregon St +13.5. Of the two I like O-St a little more and am playing it small and buying the 1/2 pt.
Baseball Bonus - Arizona/SD Over 7.5
Pushed the TCU game, which they led most of the way. Very unfortunate and aided by a horrible late penalty on TCU on a non-existent horse collar. Also didn't help that TCU best receiver went out early with an injury.
Easy Over on the Diamondbacks game. Oregon St looks like an easy cover. Hope I wake up to that still being the case.
Saturday CFB Best Bets
Ole Miss -1.5 vs LSU - someone in this game is a fraud, guess who
Washington +9 vs Ohio St - too many points on the road against a very solid opponent - still on the side of the Buckeyes being significantly less than last season which makes this line at least a field goal too strong
Buffalo +3.5 - getting more than a FG at home vs a decent UConn but they will likely just win outright, I'll fold in a couple ML plays into small parlays
BYU -6.5 - don't believe in Colorado for sure but this BYU team is not being given enough credit yet
Play of the Day: Hawaii/Air Force Over 52.5
Looks like Saturday could end up going 4-1, including smashing the over in Hawaii/Air Force, if BYU can get to the cover of -6.5. If not it was a solid 3-2. Oh and I have to give a told ya so on LSU being phony. Kiffin thoroughly outcoached Brian Kelly today.
NFL Week 4 Best Bets
Texans -7
If the Texans were well, the Texans, this line would be 11 or 12. I think we get more of the Houston we expected and the Titans will have a rough go vs a tough Texans defense. Will Anderson might have 3 sacks himself.
Falcons -2
I understand this is a team that lost 30-0 to the PANTHERS last week, but it was a little deceiving. Wash does not have Daniels and while Mariota is a capable backup, he won't deliver bangers every week (and no Scary Terry). Bijan goes nuts vs a pedestrian Commanders defense and Penix to London has to start clicking sometime.
Colts/Rams Over 49.5
It's the highest total of the week but this is one of those dual plays - the Rams offense will light it up and the back end of their defense is terrible, which means the Colts should keep cooking offensively. For all the talk about Daniel Jones give me Jonathan Taylor for MVP if he keeps this pace up.
Green Bay -6.5 - how will Dallas score without Ceedee vs that defense, and the Cowboys secondary is horrendous
Leans
Steelers ML over Vikings - regression spot here for the Vikings
Buffalo should cover easily but I won't be laying more than two TDs - give me a James Cook anytime TD as my favorite bet
Browns/Lions I have no good feel for - same with Chargers at Giants, although Justin Herbert and his receivers may very well light things up again
The more I think about the Patriots -5.5 the more I like it, might get to Best Bet territory by morning
Bucs beat the Eagles outright - that's how I feel but it's a scary play with Mike Evans out
49ers keep it rolling in another low scoring W, don't wanna lay points though
Kansas City +2.5, no way I'm playing the Ravens at Arrowhead, for about a million reasons - Pat pulls it out
Bears/LV should be high scoring, give me Tre Tucker on all my fantasy teams again, and Rome Odunze for that matter
Sunday recap, 4-2 counting the James TD which was smashed for a nice winner
I had Broncos -7.5 and the under same game parlay last night but did not post it so it doesn't count here at least
For me it was a good recovery weekend going 9-4 overall which was nice after struggling the last couple weeks
MLB Wild Card winners - Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, Tigers
I really like Yankees -1.5 games series bet at +185, get by Crochet today and it's a lock
Saturday CFB early bird - TCU -13.5, they will be out for blood vs Colorado
Sunday NFL early bird - Broncos +4.5, they may very well beat the Eagles
Thursday Best Bet: New Mexico St ML
A long time ago an old sports bettor told me if in doubt, take the points. Then he said, if a team is a home underdog by less than 3 points (+1, +1.5, +2, +2.5) that was around a 70% winner. Over the years that has not quite been my experience but I think it's close to 60%. I used that principle, in part, in choosing the Chiefs to cover the +2.5 vs the Ravens last Sun.
I use that again tonight since the line caught my eye. We have two poor CFB teams squaring off but a spot where the line is off by more than a field goal. NMST is getting +1.5 but since I think they're going to win outright I'm taking them on the money line. I might even move this up to -2.5 and get really good odds. NMST has a good passing attack and Sam has a terrible pass defense. NMST has battled against some decent teams and its only bad loss was against a tough LA Tech on the road. Sam is just a very poor football team, one of those where the new age of the portal meant the team on paper preseason looked far better than what has spit out in reality.
NFL Lean - I guess I could jump on the Rams bandwagon that has moved this line from -3.5 to 9 as the 49ers drop like flies. The value might be in grabbing those points and pray McCaffrey doesn't get hurt and Mac Jones is able to forge a connection with someone like Kendrick Bourne or Tonges. The Niners defense must get pressure on Stafford or the Rams will drop 35+. I'm not feeling great about this game.
To chase some earlier losses, I am betting the Yankees big tonight as they will close out the Red Sox.
Thursday Recap
Banner day for the good guys
1. New Mexico St ML easiest winner ever - the tiny home dog law pays off again, and besides this was a terrible line, Sam as the favorite was ridiculous
2. I bet the Yankees to win game 3 pretty large to cover the -1.5 bet I placed on them earlier in the week, and actually made a few bucks in the exchange
3. Niners handicap was pretty much on point, especially as related to Jones finding a connection with Bourne and Tonges - actually was both
4. All four of my Wild Card teams won their series as predicted earlier this week
Friday Moves
Get on some late night chalk - gonna ride BYU -19 vs a really bad West Va, and San Diego St -6 vs Col St - SDST offense looks primed to break out here and their defense is pretty stingy, enough to throttle CSU
MLB Divisional Series Winners: Taking the Phillies and Brewers in the NL, and the Yankees and Mariners in the AL
Late addition to the Friday night Best Bets - Princeton -4.5
This dropped over the last 24 hours from -7.5 - I'm not exactly sure why but I thought the line was too small to begin with, smash the Tigers
Friday Recap: Princeton covered, San Diego St is easily on its way, and with BYU up 38-17 in the fourth quarter we are 8:50 away from a second straight perfect night at 3-0. That would put the current run at 18-4 dating back to last Saturday. That's great, but no time to celebrate let's get back to work.
Saturday CFB Best Bets: Army/UAB Over 57.5, Arizona -20.5, Buffalo -9.5, Alabama -11, Maryland +5.5, Troy ML, TCU -13.5
UAB is a bad defense and will not be able to stop Army's rush attack, however the Blazer QB Kitna will also have a big game - Arizona will trounce a floundering OKST - I've been on Buffalo a few times and feel great about their rush game vs one of the worst rush defense in Eastern Mich - Alabama gets revenge against a pesky Vandy in a high scoring game, another option here is to take Bama Over 34.5 points scored - Maryland is a gut play, Wash having to travel across the country after a tough effort vs Ohio St and the Terps defense is legit - Troy is another low home dog (+1.5) and frankly the better team, going money line here - and while TCU has a couple of key injuries, especially McAllister, I think they bounce a very mid Buffaloes squad.
Leans on the big games
-Miami probably covers the 4.5 at FSU, their offensive line will control the game
-Louisville will outlast Virginia, bet the over on Miller Moss passing yards whatever it is
-Texas slips by Florida but it will be ugly and not easy
-I almost called for the Cincy upset of Iowa St, can't quite get there but it will be an entertaining game
Still like my NFL early bird of Denver +4.5 at the Eagles
Saturday Recap: 5-2
A couple of backdoor covers, but I'm taking them cause I've been on the wrong end of that a couple times this season. I am now on a 22-7 run that has the season record sitting at 43-38. A small point of order on the TCU game - I'm aware it went off at either -14.5 or -15 depending on the book, but it sat at -13.5 until this morning. Getting bets in early before the line moves (usually in the direction of faves or overs) is strongly advised, and there's no shame in backing off a play if you don't like the new spread.
Sunday NFL Best Bets: Broncos +4.5, Jets ML, Texans/Ravens Over 40.5
Broncos are quickly starting to figure things out on both sides of the ball and the Eagles have been playing with fire - Jets will be made to look like the 99 Rams by this awful Cowboys defense - I understand Stroud has been inconsistent at best, and that Lamar is out, but that's why we get this total so low and everybody else is ready to go, this is a pure value play and shouldn't have a hard time getting to 45+ total points.
Leans
-Surely the Vikings get the win over the Browns starting Gabriel, a small play from me on this one
-Carolina is schizo and that means they probably beat the brakes off Miami
-the Bucs will always compete with Baker Mayfield at QB, so I'd think about grabbing the points there
-still very high on Buffalo but -8 is a lot to lay against an improving Pats
Sunday Recap: 2-1
If you can overlook the absolute stinker pick that was the Jets, it was another great day. 24-8 in my last 32. On another note, I gave the Broncos early last week as an "early bird" pick, those are now 7-0 this season (check back through the thread). My early looks at lines are spotting some big discrepancies and so far this has worked out well. I'll try to identify one or two of those for next weekend by tomorrow night.
Off topic even more, about Arch Manning - I'm seeing a ton of debate online, mostly it's butthurt Texas fans getting defensive about Arch. I say this as someone who liked the idea of Arch taking over, thought he showed great promise last year, and most importantly put a lot of futures on Texas winning both the SEC and the National Championship. I actively have rooted for them to win and do well this season and said so earlier. So with all the objectivity in the world, I can say his throwing motion is poor, he is not reading defenses well, if at all, and his accuracy is below average for lesser divisions, much less the standard for QB play for elite playoff squads. It's too late now anyway but they threw away a ton of money on him and the whole experiment this season.
NFL Monday Pick: Jaguars +3.5 - they've been pretty solid so far, will be at home, and the Chiefs win over a hapless Ravens hyped this line up a bit too much.
Monday MLB Baseball
Take the Phillies ML and the Cubs/Brewers Over 7.5
Phillies have to get to Blake Snell, but they have a lot of RH firepower at the plate and the wind is blowing out in Philly. Luzardo pitching for them could go either way, but as long as he has the same stuff he had all year they should be fine. The Phillies are one of those teams that knows how to find another gear and know they cannot afford to go down 0-2.
On the other, the game script completely flips here as the Cubs will be able to get to the Brewers staff in a bullpen game, and Imanaga has been poor down the stretch and the Brewers bats are hot. We get lucky with a playoff depressed total, a week ago this would've been 8.5 or 9.
Monday Recap: 2-1 (season 47-40, 54%)
A valiant Phillies comeback falling short is the only blemish with two very easy covers on the Jaguars and Brewers/Cubs going over the total early. Once again, badly set lines are providing our best plays. The Jags should not have been getting 3.5 and as I said we got a playoff discount on the Brewers total.
Tuesday's Best Bet: Mariners -130
Jack Flaherty is about to get rocked by the M's bats on Tuesday night.
Weekend early birds
CFB: Wake Forest -3 at Oregon St
NFL: Arizona Cardinals +6.5 at the Colts
Current run 27-9 after the Mariners easy win tonight
Wednesday Baseball Best Bet: Cubs -122
Taillon has kept them in games and I feel like the Cubs bats will perk up at home, I considered that Priester has been dealing but this is tough spot for a rookie, from Chicago no less, and I think nerves may get the best of him.
WEDNESDAY CFB IS BACK
There will be football on every day from now until late November and we honor the return of mid-week college football with picks on both games
Missouri State -2.5 and UTEP ML
Missouri State has been impressive in its FBS debut this year and should control the game against a very disappointing Middle Tenn. The only question mark is M-St QB Jacob Clark who is day to day with a knee, but backup Deuce Bailey is an exciting freshman and the overall operation under Coach Ryan Beard is superior to what retread Derek Mason is putting out at MTSU. We ignore the small home dog factor here, as we must on occasion. However...
UTEP has been embarrassed by Liberty in recent years but this isn't the Liberty of recent years. Miners are hardened from games like battling Texas in a 27-10 loss, and will enjoy home field advantage at the modest elevation of El Paso, which may gas an already terrible Liberty rush defense. The real key is the UTEP defense which has been generally impressive and features some nice NFL prospects like Edge Udoka Ezeani. UTEP is the underdog (+1.5) but we use the small home dog factor here and I'm going money line expecting an outright win.
Cubs win, but my foray into mid-week college football was a disaster. I would take Missouri State again in this spot (won 22-20 missing by 1/2 pt), but UTEP was a decidedly poor choice.
Thursday Picks - none of these I would consider "Best Bets" but I think the Phillies and Cubs will both win, and if I had to take a side in the NFL I would take the Giants +7.5
College Best Bets: Southern Miss -2.5 and East Carolina +7
So Miss may have to score 40 to cover, but that shouldn't be a problem against one of the worst defenses in CFB in Georgia Southern. The ECU-Tulane game is strange, I think ECU might be the better team but they are getting a TD, albeit on the road.
Thursday Recap: 1-0-1
I said So Miss might have to drop 40 to cover, nailed that as while they were up 38-21 mid-4th, they had to hang on to win by 3, good enough of course to cover. East Carolina is a bad beat of a push, felt like they deserved to win but let it slip away late. The other picks - Giants was an easy win grabbing the +7.5, and while the Cubs did indeed win, Phillies reliever had the ultimate brain fart and fired his team's chances 10 ft wide of home, when all he had to do was lob it to first.
Friday Best Bet: North Texas -1.5
Be sure you catch this one, South Florida was the early season darling after wins over Boise and Florida, and North Texas has been very impressive in its 5-0 start. Keys here are a big home field advantage for UNT and I think their defense will be able to get off the field on 3rd down. Also, South Florida got really sloppy against Charlotte last week and if that continues at all here it will cost them.
ALDS Game 5, I would take the Mariners. I know Skubal is throwing again but the M's seem to have his number. That and home field gets them to the ALCS.
Sticking with my Saturday early bird Wake Forest -3, but I'm cancelling the Arizona Cardinals one.
Friday Recap: 1-1
Saturday CFB Best Bets: UNLV -7, Penn St -21.5, Wake Forest -3, Arizona +2.5, Rice +10
Leans on some other big games
Alabama/Missouri: I like Over 51.5 the most
Oregon/Indiana, Oregon -7 seems best
I have a sneaking feeling Texas is a value at +1, even though I wouldn't feel great taking it
Illinois +14.5 is very tempting as well
Bad day. 2-3 if Arizona can hold on to a 7 point lead with a couple minutes to go. Once again our early bird picks are perfect 9-0 this season as Wake Forest was an easy winner. My early bird NFL this week was the Arizona Cardinals but I cancelled that, I don't mind the pick at +7 but is not one of my favorites now.
NFL Best Bets: Jaguars +1.5, 49ers +3.5, Lions ML
The Jags continue to get disrespected as the oddsmakers are seemingly holding their breath waiting for the bubble to burst. Meanwhile they keep rolling along and Brian Thomas Jr is overdue for a monster game. The Niners are still banged up, but this is more a play against the Bucs. I get and respect that Baker has been on a legendary roll but they are also banged up and this feels like one that will go down to the wire, we take the points. Finally, the Lions look like a real Super Bowl contender and until they show otherwise the Chiefs look like a team on the outside of the playoffs looking in.
Thanks for chiming in after a 1-7 weekend! The rungood was due to hit a wall eventually. Haven't seen you after the unbeaten nights and weekends.
Tonight: Bengals +5.5, Mariners
Flacco is showing quick chemistry with Chase and Higgins, this pick is dependent on the Bengals defense which is sketchy, but if Hendrickson plays and DJ Turner continues his upward arc in the secondary they should score enough to hang. A couple of stats which may or may not be irrelevant - prime time NFL dogs are covering like crazy, and Tomlin in 2-8 on the road in his last 10 TNF games.
The M's throw Castillo who is really tough at home and should be able to keep the Jays from repeating their barrage from last night.
