WSOP Paradise $2750 Mini Main Event - A few spots
A few spots that I wasn't sure about.
It's pretty early in the tournament Villain is older (60s or 70s) and French Canadian. We don't know much about them.
Hand 1
3rd Level 200/300/300
We have 40K (50K starting stack)
BTN (older villain) opens to 1.2K, We have AJo in the sb (fold, call or raise?) all options seem reasonable, but this deep without reads, I would normally call, but with a 4x open, are we pitching this or is it too nitty?
Hand 2 (300/500/500)
Same villain, but now we realize that he is VPIPing ~60% and really mixing up his raises a lot. At this point we have seen him do some weird things, like mini 3 bet J8o vs another old guy UTG
This time he opens to 2.5K in MP, We have 35K effective with KQs in CO
Hand 3 (400/800)
Same villain, in MP he opens to 3K, we have 20K with KQs in CO. Feels a bit spewy to shove 25BB...
9 Replies
Any other showdowns from villain? Or 4-bets from him?
Hand 1 - We had seen nothing yet
Hand 2 - We saw the small 3 bet w J8o, but also a 5 bet shove where he had KK. He has also made large bets when checked to on the flop/turn. We saw one hand that he opened AQo and called a large 3 bet and the open shoved a Q high flop and was up against AA. He has also limped and raised normal sizes. We have seen him open to a larger sizing with 67o
Hand 3 - It was confirmed by this time that he is a bit of a maniac.
Hand 1: I typically 3-bet with AJ in the SB after a BTN open. The 4x thing though makes it look like JJ (which we block). So it could be hands like TT/99/88 and sometimes AK. Still I would likely 3-bet to 4200 (or even up to 4800). If I don't 3-bet then I would fold here.
Hand 2: I probably want to call rather than 3-bet or fold. We are in position. It is a 5x open but could be any hand at this point
Hand 3: I jam. Though in reality in a $2, 750 main event I probably fold. I like the jam here because he is opening so frequently he will likely fold. But in reality its probably not worth getting knocked out vs just winning 5k. Still if I thought raising was the best option my 3x raise sizing would be like 35% effective stack so I would jam if I raised.
Hand 1: 3-bet/fold would be my preferred play. The larger the open size the more you should favor entering the pot with a raise rather than a call. Presumably the large size makes his range stronger, but it's still a button open. He will call your raise a fair amount but you will take it down often with a Cbet. When you make a pair you will be playing some pot control and don't necessarily want to shovel money into the pot.
Hand 2: With the read that he's playing way too many hands I like raising to a small size (like 6k) to isolate. This will look strong and I don't expect he will get too out of line 4-betting, but this deep if he does 4-bet I would fold. The reason to size small is because if you go too big you price yourself in to have to call a jam. Also you don't mind if dominated hands call. You're pretty much just trying to get heads up with initiative. I would use the same sizing with the top of my range like AA, KK.
Hand 3: I like to call the open. If someone jams behind and the original raiser folds you have to call (unless you have a read that they're a nit or possibly if they were jamming many more effective BBs vs the rest of the table). People don't like to call off here but this is not a $50 tournament. People will be jamming aggressively and KQs is too strong to fold with all the dead money in the pot.
I like 3-betting in all three cases, I think.
A shove may seem a lot from 25bb, but he opened to 4.25x. If you can pick up 6.75bb without showdown that is a pretty good result.
Hand 1 - I'd just call
Hand 2 - maybe 3b to 6500-7k
Hand 3 - there's 4200 in there + antes. Maybe make it 9-10k to hopefully fold out TT/99/AJ/AQ - not a fan of calling pre given how much dead money is now in there
I could be convinced a jam is better than a call for hand 3. I think both calling and jamming should both be +EV, but I'm not sure which line is better.
My thinking was that if you just call you can induce some lighter jams from hands you're in great shape against like suited Broadways and JTs type of stuff that would fold if you jam yourself. That and you keep in all the weak dominated hands from the villain that would fold to your jam.
On the other hand you would prefer if people fold a suited ace or small pocket pair that might jam if you just call.
Pokerfan, did you notice there is only 20k effective? I'm not sure what the purpose is of making it 10k instead of just jamming, as putting in half your stack you're effectively pricing yourself in to call a jam anyway.
To make our hand look stronger than it is - AK, QQ+ isn't folding, but maybe we can get TT/99/AQ/AJ to level themselves into thinking we're very strong
To make our hand look stronger than it is - AK, QQ+ isn't folding, but maybe we can get TT/99/AQ/AJ to level themselves into thinking we're very strong
This could be true. Maybe if there was extraordinary action behind like 3 all ins or something where it was clear someone has a top 3% hand you could even consider folding after that raise (actually you might still be priced in, lol). In theory there's probably not much of an EV difference either way between 10k and a jam.
It just seems like if I make similar plays weird stuff ends up happening where I end up wishing I jammed. Like the original raiser flats then open jams a A73 flop or something where you're saying, "crap, " and wishing you just jammed.
I folded Hand 1 and Hand 2. Which in retrospect should have been a call.
For hand 3, I did end up 3 betting to 10K, villain called. Flop was 9 6 2 and he donk shoved for my last ~10K, I sigh called (given how large the pot was and figuring I was probably 25% to win). He showed K9s.
Always calling 2 and 3 vs this player type. It's solver approved with this hand specifically, and we don't want to be in no man's land facing a large bet (as we saw, he may not even check flop to us.)
I don't feel as confident on 1, but early in the tournament, I don't think it's terrible to call and minimize variance.
