TPTK Facing Turn Lead and River Barrel

It would helpful to have a read on villain.
Also, most of our strategies rely on how we are perceived at the table.

It’s tough to say:
Villain may be afraid you’re going to bet 10 again and wants to build a pot.
V might have 2pair and doesn’t want to face a 4liner.

My first instinct with donks is to raise because it’s usually a weak made hand that can’t stand pressure.

Once in awhile, it’s a draw trying to set its own price.

Facing this situation, I’m going to pot the flop, maybe overbet slightly. I want maximum pressure early with this wet flop to discourage draws. Villain can only determine how strong you are by what you do.

I used to play against an old guy that would bet $10 every street with a little pair. Once you know, you know.

But I don’t know a bunch about what’s going on in this hand. It’s weird he donked a turn 4 like he’s got 44. I’d probably raise the turn to $75 and possibly take the FreeCard on the river - while folding to anymore aggression from him.

Easy call. Plenty of equity here. Well played hand.

Gonna lose 50% of the time and that's fine.

Board: TdJhQs
Equity Win Tie
MP3 49.60% 45.40% 4.20% { AdQd }
BB 50.40% 46.19% 4.20% { TT, AQs, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, AQo, K9o+, Q9o+, JTo }

If you gave us the suits of your cards and the cards on board, I'm not seeing them on my phone. If there are flush draws available, it changes the analysis.

PRE - assuming this is a raked game, I think we can raise bigger.

FLOP - I'd probably just check this back if it's a rainbow board. Our opponents can have every 2P combo, some straights, and occasionally a surprising set. I'd be more likely to bet if there are flush draws available, especially if we have the NFD or a blocker to it.

TURN - In multi-way pots or on the turn, a donk is often a strong hand making sure the action doesn't check through.

I tend to think of the turn donk like it's a delayed flop x/r. They don't want to scare us off or bloat the pot before seeing a safe turn card. Alternatively they may do this when the turn improves their hand in a big way, though that seems less likely here.

It can be hard to decipher when they bet somewhat small. I expect weaker players to bet big when they're trying to protect a vulnerable hand and smaller when they have a nutted hand. Sometimes they don't know what size to take to accomplish whatever it is they think they want to, so they just default to half pot and hope it does whatever works out best.

His line suggests he may have just flatted pre with AK, which some low stakes players will do. K9 also makes sense. Sometimes they flat pre with TT and JJ for whatever reason. Sometimes they just monkey stab with 2P because they don't know what they should do.

If we know V is super-fishy, I might call and see if he fires again on the river. If he bets big, I'd just fold. Otherwise, without any reads, I'd be thinking about folding now. We're getting 3:1, but we could be drawing to just four outs, and he may not pay us off when there'll be four to a straight on board if we make our hand.