I'm a uni student who took a shot at 100NL and took a 7k downswing

I'm a uni student who took a shot at 100NL and took a 7k downswing

After moving up through the stakes recreationally as a student I bought a tracker and took a proper shot at 100NL zoom. Roughly 80k hands in my 20 yr old head was starting to think I was god's gift to poker winning at 8bb/100 which is ~40$/hr pre rake back over a decent sample. Tbf if u plug in at the 80k hand mark a poker variance calculator says there is only a 1% chance of a break even player winning at this win rate or higher.

But then I lost 70 buy ins in the next 40k hands
I'm still up a bit after rake back but I'm now depressed af and thinking I maybe should focus again on getting a real job.


04 October 2023 at 11:00 PM
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8 Replies


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Phil Galfond says that one of the best tips he recived was " If you want to be a professional poker player be ready to face dowsings greater than you ever imagined".


see you in '26, wurm


by wurmtron k

Phil Galfond says that one of the best tips he recived was " If you want to be a professional poker player be ready to face dowsings greater than you ever imagined".

Nah, he played poorly 70BI downswing is not variance haha


This was OP's last and only post, and last activity was 2hrs after post. the fk

quite the red line. I guess OP over bluffed and then some. then continuously ran into the nuts / zoom pool found out


only watchingthe graph seems like you changed your playstyle from TAG to LAG, when you are not a rly strong player and you try to apply advanced gto concepts u may end up messing it up(overbluffing) and most importantly, probably bluffing in spots or against people that you shouldn't.

I wouldn't quit poker if I was you, just study and improve your game into a solid one, good luck kid.


last 40k hands look more like massive tilt than bad variance, but that's the beauty of poker, you never know


by 420legalize420 k

Nah, he played poorly 70BI downswing is not variance haha

Of course it can be variance, -70 BI downswings will happen when you are playing something like 500k hands a year
I knew a guy who was 120 BI below EV on 100k hands


by Cowleys k

After moving up through the stakes recreationally as a student I bought a tracker and took a proper shot at 100NL zoom. Roughly 80k hands in my 20 yr old head was starting to think I was god's gift to poker winning at 8bb/100 which is ~40$/hr pre rake back over a decent sample. Tbf if u plug in at the 80k hand mark a poker variance calculator says there is only a 1% chance of a break even player winning at this win rate or higher.

But then I lost 70 buy ins in the next 40k hands
I'm still up a bi

Take 1 - 2 weeks off from playing completely. That is what I do and it resets me. Works every time!

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