River Decision with a Set
Not the greatest runout. I assume turn should be smaller in theory, but I think it's okay against a fish.
Thoughts on river?
Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software
NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO (146.4BBs)
CO (78.9BBs) [VPIP: 25% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 12]
BTN (202.7BBs) [VPIP: 71.4% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 11.1% | Hands: 7]
SB (101.8BBs) [VPIP: 0% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 100% | Hands: 2]
BB (193.2BBs) [VPIP: 41.7% | PFR: 33.3% | AGG: 60% | Hands: 12]
UTG (105.6BBs) [VPIP: 16.7% | PFR: 8.3% | AGG: 50% | Hands: 12]
Dealt to Hero: 3♠ 3♦
UTG Folds, HERO Raises To 2.5BBs, CO Folds, BTN Calls 2.5BBs, SB Folds, BB Folds
Hero SPR on Flop: [22.35 effective]
Flop (6.4BBs): 4♦ A♦ 3♣
HERO Checks, BTN Bets 1BBs (Rem. Stack: 199.2BBs), HERO Raises To 9.1BBs (Rem. Stack: 134.8BBs), BTN Calls 8.1BBs (Rem. Stack: 191BBs)
Turn (24.7BBs): 4♦ A♦ 3♣ J♦
HERO Bets 15.8BBs (Rem. Stack: 119BBs), BTN Calls 15.8BBs (Rem. Stack: 175.3BBs)
River (56.2BBs): 4♦ A♦ 3♣ J♦ 2♥
8 Replies
Probably b/f around 1/2-3/4.
I think this board is too wet to check raise here OOP, villain can have some pocket fours and stuff which we lose to but other than that I think our hand is too strong to raise. I would just check/call down on the turn and hope river checks through. He'll barrel turn probably with Ax with a diamond, 2 pair etc and just check back everything else. A lot of his bluffs get there by the river as well.
Not sure about opening 33 from the HJ even 150bb effective I think it's still a fold.
I think this board is too wet to check raise here OOP, villain can have some pocket fours and stuff which we lose to but other than that I think our hand is too strong to raise. I would just check/call down on the turn and hope river checks through. He'll barrel turn probably with Ax with a diamond, 2 pair etc and just check back everything else. A lot of his bluffs get there by the river as well.
Not sure about opening 33 from the HJ even 150bb effective I think it's still a fold.
and stuff?
What other stuff do we lose too on this flop?
Pre is mixed. On some tables I'd fold. Opening here since no one at the table had been 3betting much.
Sorry yeah I meant his hands that bluff here have good equity on the flop anyways which we want to keep bluffing so there's no point in raising and forcing them to fold if they're just going to barrel all 3 barrels and there's still a chance we boat up even if they make their hand, so by the river if don't boat up we just have an easy fold.
I think either cbet or smaller raise otf. Your hand is strong but almost very runout will be 4 to a str8 and/or will bring flsuh draw.
Turn yes in theory smaller is standard and it probably works even better vs a fish because they won't fold Ax to small bet and won't raise as much.
River bet whatever sizing you think naked Ax will call.
Is everyone missing that this guy's running 71/0 over 7 hands?
Flop seems fine make it even bigger at this depth though. Probably cbet this particular hand against this villain.
Overbet seems reasonable OTT, sizing down in theory though
As played maybe 50% OTR probably too thin in theory I'd just block vs reg
Why are we raising 3's?????
