NCAA Football Coaching Carousel

The only news I want to hear is that Mack has either retired or been fired. He’s shown the entire time back for his 2nd stint that he can’t be trusted to make the right hires. The problem starts at the top with Mack and the culture he’s built under him of inexplicable losses, no significant wins, and a team that begins collapsing for the entire 2nd half of the season. Can’t adjust after Q1. Nothing changes unless he goes. Wasting Drake Maye is 100% fireable

Immediately thought, no, not till Mack Brown is fired, then read the next post.

Mack is completely mailing it in at this point, just like his last few years at Texas.

He has something like a 10 million dollar home on the beach in NC that he's happily collecting money to pay off and coast into retirement. He'll stay as long as they'll let him. With Drake Maye, UNC didn't have a single notable win while losing about 4 inexcusable ones a year.

As far as recruiting rankings they've dropped from 11th and 14th to now b2b being a measly 31st, and 27th. All that while having a great offense and potential #1 pick in the draft. If you can't capitalize on that then you just showed the past 2 seasons are as good as it's going to be against easy schedules, and not having elite recruits has you doomed with a coach like Mack. He can't even win big with them. Imagine how bad it will be without them.

After 9 10+ seasons in a row Mack shut down recruiting somewhere around 2007 at Texas, so to answer your imagine question, with all the resources and fertile recruiting of Texas he went:

2010 5-6
2011 8-5
2012 9-4
2013 8-5

Then with Mack's players Charlie Strong managed

2014 6-7
2015 5-7
2016 5-7

So yeah, it's gonna suck for a bit.

I think this is the moment that Saban starts to lose control and slip in the dynasty thing. That certainly hasn't happened yet as one outside the playoff last year (wasn't it?) and in it this year. I think it is going south of that soon and a lot of the revolution going on as he passes 70 will tip the scales against the GOAT dynasty. When he went to Bama my quote was "This is Lombardi goes to Green Bay" ... for which I was roundly mocked as an Alabama homer. Consider the source. So I'll call this one too.

I’m gonna say less Saban losing his edge and more that NIL/transfer portal have increased parity from a talent perspective.

Pretty much, the ridiculous success he has had distorts people’s expectations to thinking just missing the playoffs last year and losing in the playoffs this year means he has lost his edge. His teams just aren’t 2 deep with nfl starters anymore.

I'm gonna say that was his edge. And to a lesser degree his ability to hire quality assistants.

His future isn't what it used to be.

He's 72. I doubt he gives much of a ****. If he'd won the title this year I would have pegged the odds he retired at about 99%, now I think 99% he'll come back.

Not sure whether to say the benefits are all flowing to the richest schools (Michigan and Texas) or some version of parity is spreading across the top 15ish schools. I am leaning towards the latter. This year it seems that #1 vs #7 would be a competitive game whereas in the CFP era #1 vs #4 was a blowout.

Yeah, I agree. Even the richest schools aren’t going to suffer paying $2M in NIL for a former 5 star HS kid to ride the bench. Playing time equates to NIL $$$, so the days of Bama having 3rd string NFL talent are likely over.

I wouldn't say talent is flowing to Michigan though. Their best recruiting class over the last 4 years was 9th and their overall team talent is 13th. They're on an uptick b/c a lot of key players are really good at the same time, but unless you're pulling in top classes year after year, you're gonna have big ebbs and flows. The team to look out for is A&M. If they suddenly start winning natties and being top 5 year after year, then you can make a case for the talent flowing unfairly to the richest school.

As bigdaddy said, the key is that the 2nd and 3rd stringers are no longer elite at schools like Bama. Just look at FSU v UGA, the drop off once you lose a few starters is astronomical. Bama has lost a TON of talent to the portal this year. Lots of guys that were top 100 national recruits (Roydell Williams, Shazz Preston, Ferguson, Benson, Goodwine, Jones-Bell, Buchner, etc.) Earl Little was a guy that was penciled is as a starter next year that Saban fought hard to keep and he still went to FSU b/c he felt hard done by not receiving enough PT this year. Pre-NIL, Bama gets to keep all these guys and have a 2 deep with insane talent.

If anything, I think NIL will probably add a lot of parity (at least among 10-15 schools) b/c there will be so much turnover, thinner rosters, and some teams will have chemistry issues. There will be a lot more randomness based on which teams luck into the right combo of players.

If you mean his future isn’t winning a NC every other year and being top 4 90% of the time then you are correct. His last 5 years could very well look like peak Steve Spurrier at Florida.

A "hidden" factor is NIL being used to retain players and not just add them. To use Michigan as an example, Blake Corum, Zak Zinter and Trevor Keegan, to name three key players, all came back at least in part because of NIL. Pre-NIL all three would have been off to the league after 2022. Okay, maybe a slight question on Corum due to his injury, but I still think he would have been gone.

Coaches will just have to adjust to a different world, where you're going to have to do more than just pay players to get them signed.

Exactly what I mean. And when he fully realizes and accepts that he is hitting the exit at warp speed.

Fun to think about: Who backfills Saban?

The hot name a few years ago was Dabo but his stock has cooled. Could you imagine what Kalen DeBoer would do with Bama level talent and resources?

I'll take Kiffin in the pool.

guessing Dan Lanning is also on the list

Has to be on the short list but depending on the timing might be too expensive to get out of his contract that just automatically extended through 2030 when Oregon won its 10th game?

If Saban doesn't retire soon, Bama might try again to get Glenn Schumann when they have to fill the DC spot. That would leave the option for an in-house replacement once Saban calls it a day. Apparently they already tried to hire him last year but Georgia doubled his salary to keep him.

well it probably won't be next season, maybe a couple of years?
the value of 20 million then is a little bit different from now

Kiffin seems like the smart money pick

I tend to think next year is Saban’s last. He’s lost huge on recruiting/NIL and realignment + 12 team playoff being what it is I just don’t think he’ll be able to keep up or be able to field a team that can be playoff competitive

Or maybe he takes a second swing in the nfl while his name still has value? I just think the longer he stays in college the worse the shine comes off the apple

That's a little harsh considering Bama has the #2 recruiting class in 2024 behind only Georgia.

Lanning or DeBoer before Kiffin printed on t-shirts
copywrighting now

do not confuse with circle k
freshwater nachos suck