How much would a 500nl reg lose against the top players 3 handed?

Stakes are up to George and Saulo (so I'm guessing at least 50/100+) . The Z500 reg buys a % he's comfortable with from Saulo (with the 5bb/100 spot) for an opportunity to play against the best in the world at highstakes (effectively midstakes for him). The top NLHE guys get to have consistent 3handed action from a weaker reg. On top of all of that Saulo gets insanely good content for his YT channel. Unless I'm missing something everyone included should be happy to do this.

Yeah I see what you mean now. In that case I think inability to prevent collusion would make the bet infeasible. It would work a lot better heads up. In 3 handed, collusion is absolutely brutal.

I remember battling CTS at 5/10 for a while as he was on his way up to the nosebleeds. It was like we were playing a different game at times. The constant pressure at every decision was exhausting. He was on a completely different level than anyone else that had come through at that time. I can't even fathom how much I would lose to him 3 handed or one of the top guys nowadays. It would probably be worse back then because we were so clueless.

so much money to swing for what is essentially neutral EV though (according to what they'd estimate)

around three fiddy

i wouldn't be surprised if the nl500 reg run over the two noosebleed pros with no rich whale to exploit at the table

kinda hard to say.

But you say top players.

It matters more if you mean top short handed players.

Like if you play Phil Hellmuth and Daniel Negreanu. 3 handed
isn't there specialty.

But you play someone like Doug Polk who's a heads up online specialist
then thats tougher obviously.

Classic.

it would be similar to when Dnegs played Polk heads up and thought he d have a chance and ended up getting smashed

Interesting discussion ITT.

I can personally attest to knowing a crushing 500z reg in my country before we got region locked. Smartest poker player I ever talked to. He was originally coached by Darrel Goh (world class HS player) and said the mental game of HS players like FourSixFour, Linus, Stefan, etc. is unshakeable, in addition to the fact these players have an insane grasp on theory to the point they will be exploiting the 500z reg in real time faster than the reg can adjust. They've just studied so many obscure parts of the game tree the 500nl reg hasn't yet and they'll be putting the reg into really weird spots and will punish their lack of ability to navigate it.

winning 500NL reg would get demolished I'd guess at least -10bb/100

Don't get me wrong but it can be better if you shared the results without fish included to that sample from H2N. Because the moment you share this graphic, you're assuming there is no fish in that sample.

Other problem that i see here when you think about a high stake crusher you can already pick outlier. I don't try to say that that guy you shared not a crusher but you run Pokervariance calculator for 15bb winner. What if he is a 7bb winner and run 15bb in that sample? Than you need to run variance calculator for that number and find realistic number.

I'm not saying what you say is right or wrong. I know you are both very good players. But I don't think the information you shared to defend what you said has any mathematical meaning.

Tbh I think people overestimate a lot the highstakes players.

And underestimate variance.

Imo the biggest strength 10k reg has vs top 2/5 reg is mental, resilience, being able to take the best decisions with huge amount of money in the line and also courage to take shots and believe in their self when everything seems bad .

I think the top 2/5 regs could sit at 50/100 and be winners in this games the games that runs at ACR, gg if they somehow see the stakes as 500usd.

3handed vs Linus and limitless ? imo they lose just like a 10k reg who game select well.

well stefan/otb/linus/daveyjones/darrellgoh all played 500z at one point as their main game, so i dont really see the point other than stating the obvious: a weaker player would lose to a stronger one. Yeah a bad 500z reg would be smashed, someone in the same type as stefan/linus/davey ect would probably hold their own

They are probably just trying to boost their coaching program/social media by rage baiting. Don’t think his response to the 99.6% 5bb+ sample can be real lol
Over repping their resume/authority/skills a bit. To be fair to them they are probably decent at teaching small/midstakes regs to do well though I’ll give them that

Also thing against non-adjusting bots is that ev loss of “mistakes” is often minimal unlike vs elite humans. 3h prob much bigger than 6h. Etc

implying they're not worlds better now compared to when they playd 500z???

It seems you have way more experience than i have, so you probably right… I just shared my opinion based on playing mid-low stakes vs shots i took at high stakes.

And yea maybe I underestimate the skill level this guys have.

Problem about verify this it’s the guy who grinds 2/5-10/20 taking a shot at 50/100 in a game that don’t run often and could lose his year profit in 2 sessions lol

I think in your specific case you had a lot of unfulfilled potential in poker, so your perspective makes sense

Lot of poker coaches, or are they mindset coaches, posting one-off samples as supposed proof that they are just next-level brain geniuses for breaking even at 50/100. It is two-fold in that it helps to boost the ego as well as hopefully generate sales if people still are paying for subjective poker coaching for a solved game.

Denying hero culture around poker is something a poker industry pedler will never do. People are saying things like "GTO goes out the window" when you're playing a poker hero. Cherrypicking samples of 50k hands that prove absolutely nothing. The reality is that a poker hero would not even profit vs an average 5BB+/100 winning 2/5 reg after rake, and in an unraked game would probably win something around 5BB.

You correctly dismiss small samples as an argument, then proceed to pull numbers out of thin air with a sample of 0.
I can only talk about what I know, and that is that there are 200nl/500nl winning players that try moving up too fast and are slighlty losing at 2000nl. That is including tables with fish. I can't even fathom how much they'd get demolished in a reg battle against elite players, who are multiple steps ahead of the 2000nl regs

I can't imagine msnl regs losing only 5bb with guys like Davy, Linus, and Stefan actively exploiting them in a shorthanded environment. The msnl regs I talk to are solid players with good fundamentals and heuristics, but they are still middling in a lot of nodes and don't really manipulate the equilibria and attack in the ways top players seem to.

I would take the over on 10, not sure about 15. If you've ever tried to build strategies and nodelock vs bot, it's so easy to get exploited for multiple percent of every pot. Having low evloss vs non-adjusting bot will not save you. Playing vs top regs will be much closer to that than playing vs trainer.

I commend any msnl reg with the balls to ever try something like this with their own money on the line. Unfortunately, most msnl regs would approach this with the mindset that yadayada I´m solid I beat 500nl yadayada I will breakeven yadayada I study solvers and do drills every day yadayada. They will get destroyed. This is beta mindset in its purest form (what is the problem with being a mindset coach btw?).

You either go with the mindset of ****ing destroying those guys, to send them home crying to find another job to not starve to death because they lost everything to you, or you don´t try it at all. This is how us, pure alpha males, do business. And yes, it is unrealistic for msnl to really do it at ground zero, but that's what study and preparation is all about. You study, you prepare, it may take months, years, but you do nonstop, hours every day. Obssession. Nothing else matters. Go big or go home. Do it or die trying.

No one will do this, and no one will ever succeed after variance plays out.

If any HS players are interested, i am available to play vs them #forscience (at playmoney/nl2)

Most winrates still come from the bread and butter formations like IP PFR. 3 handed is going to be a massive battle for the 500 players chips. So, theres not going to be a single formation consistently reached where 500NL has equivalent knowledge/ability. So hes going to be -EV by a lot in many formations and a small -ev in his best which are rarely reached. A murder will happen on the felt.